What goes up must come down, unless of course you are Netflix in the month of May.
Shares of the streaming giant rose almost 30 percent in May, and only experienced four down days for the entire month.
The magnitude of the move has some sounding the alarm.
"I like the company," said Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist at The Oxford Club. "I'm a customer of Netflix. I just hope after this segment they don't revoke my membership before I can binge-watch 'Orange Is The New Black' next week because Netflix is the new red as far as the stock is concerned."
Lichtenfeld believes the stock is overvalued. "The valuation is ridiculous," he said. The stock currently trades at 102 times its estimated 2014 earnings and 61 times its estimated 2015 earnings, according to data from FactSet.
"It's not expected to generate $1 billion in cash flow until 2018," notes Lichtenfeld. "This is a $25 billion market cap stock. So, it's priced for perfection. Any kind of negative catalyst, whether it's a market correction, an earnings miss, any net neutrality issues—anything that's out there—and this stock could fall by a third again like we saw just a few months ago."
Mark Newton, chief technical analyst at Greywolf Execution Partners, agrees with Lichtenfeld that Netflix now looks a lot like Netflix in March of this year.
"It's gotten as overbought as it was in March," Newton said. “ It does have some near-term momentum. However, I don't think the move is sustainable."
Newton doesn't think it’s likely Netflix will get back above its $458 highs. He sees resistance there. As well, he also sees April's low around the $300 per share level as a key technical point.
"That's important," Newton said of the $300 price. "That's a one-third retracement from the entire move up. It also lines up with the prior highs in 2011. Going forward, that's going to increasingly be a very important level."
Newton sees waning momentum in Netflix's stock. Even though the stock is rising, he doesn't see its current momentum as being able to recapture its former highs.
"What we have basically is a short-term overbought situation as part of a gradual intermediate-term chart that's starting to wane," said Newton, adding, "It doesn't mean you sell it right away. My thinking is $424 to $458 likely is decent near-term resistance. The stock probably has a maximum up to $458 and then we back off I think between the months of July to September because the move is unsustainable at this current rate."
To see the full discussion on Netflix, with Lichtenfeld on the fundamentals and Newton on the technicals, watch the above video from CNBC's "Street Signs."
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