Lululemon is said to be doing a "downward dog." But, at this rate, it's starting to look more like a "forward fold" thanks to all sorts of bad news. The company's share price dropped 16 percent on Thursday and is trading at levels not seen since 2011.
Sure, the yoga pants-maker beat Wall Street estimates by 2 cents in its latest quarter (well, if you took out a large tax expense from its share buyback program). And, revenue were also better than expected.
However, Lululemon's same-store sales grew at a rate below the Street’s expectations. And, the company lowered its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $1.77 billion to $1.80 billion, from its previous outlook of $1.77 billion to $1.82 billion.
And then there's the boardroom drama.
It's not just the fact that CFO John Currie announced plans to retire at the end of the fiscal year. It's also that founder and largest shareholder Chip Wilson said he voted against both Lululemon's new chairman Michael Casey and one of the directors. Wilson claims the two were too shortsighted in their goals.
In a press release, the company fired back:
"Contrary to Mr. Wilson's assertions, Lululemon's Board members are aligned with the Company's core values and possess the necessary expertise to successfully lead Lululemon forward."
The question investors are now asking is if Lululemon's stock will end up face down on the mat.
"I think you stay away for now," said portfolio manager Kevin Caron of Stifel's Washington Crossing Advisors. He sees limited upside base on next year's earnings estimates of about $2.24 per share.
"A very, very good retailer that has everything going for it, might trade at a 20 times multiple," Caron said. Applying that to Lululemon's earnings would put the stock in the low $40 range. "You're just not making a lot of money there. If the stock pulled back into the early $30s, I would be taking a look at it there."
But such a multiple may not even be good for Lululemon's stock, according to Caron. "If your same-store sales and your margins aren't moving in the right direction, that's going to be tough to get a 20 times multiple out of this stock," he said.
According to Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., the technicals are also not bullish on Lululemon.
"The charts have done a very good job of keeping us away from this stock and they are still keeping us away from this stock," Wald said.
Wald notes that the recent fall in the stock was reminiscent of previous double-digit percentage drops in June and December 2013 as well as January 2014.
"Now it's doing it again," Wald said. "What did we learn from those past episodes? Do not buy the downside gap. If anything, use any oversold bounce as an opportunity to sell it."
Wald said he won't be interested in the stock until its 200-day moving average moved sideways. "We're not even close to that," he said. "That's going to take months if not quarters of backing-and-filling to get there."
In the meantime, Wald sees downside risk to the $30 to $32 range. "Thirty dollars marked the stock's 2007 peak," he explained. "I think it could get down there."
To see the full discussion on Lululemon, with Caron on the fundamentals and Wald on the technicals, watch the above video.
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