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What the WhatsApp deal means for BlackBerry

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What the WhatsApp deal means for BlackBerry

As Canadians rejoice in their gold medal wins of in Olympic hockey, should Canada's BlackBerry also rejoice in Facebook's $16 billion (or $19 billion, depending on how you look at the deal) acquisition of WhatsApp?

After all, BlackBerry's mobile messenger service, BBM, has been around for years and has 80 million users. WhatsApp has been around for just four years and has 450 million users. So, if WhatsApps sold for between $35 and $42 per user, should BBM alone be worth between $2.8 billion and $3.4 billion for just one segment in a company currently valued at $4.7 billion?

Not at all, says Colin Gillis, Senior Technology Analyst and Director of Research at BGC Financial. 

(Read: Four reasons mobile messaging is huge)

"You can't apply that multiple to BBM because BBM is not growing at the same rate," says Gillis on CNBC's Street Signs' Talking Numbers' segment. "It's more likely to get a multiple of what Viber got – something around $8 – $9 per user as opposed to that $42 per user that Facebook paid."

That would put a value on BBM of something in the $700 million range. Gillis also thinks some estimates of BlackBerry's patents are overblown, too. "People say it could be worth up to $3 billion," says Gillis "But, patents that are licensed out are less valuable, so maybe the patents are worth only around $1 billion."

BlackBerry's service business is also declining, notes Gillis, and he values it at around $500 million. As well, in the last quarter, the company also had a negative gross profit of $1.2 billion.

(Watch: Is WhatsApp deal a reason to short Facebook?)

Katie Stockton, Chief Technical Strategist at BTIG, believes the technicals are negative for the tech company. She notes that the stock remains below its 200-day moving average even though it nearly doubled from mid-December to mid-January.

"We've seen it stall in here at its 200-day moving average," says Stockton. "The consolidation phase really reflects neutral short-term momentum…. We need a decisive break out into double-digit territory above $10 to confirm a base breakout for BlackBerry. Until then, you have to assume that long-term downtrend is still in effect."

To see the full discussion on BlackBerry with Gillis on the fundamentals and Stockton on the technicals, watch the video above.

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