American stocks are in the midst of its worst sell-off this year. With the Federal Reserve Bank is expected to taper quantitative easing and with a credit crisis in China causing all sorts of jitters, what’s ahead for US market?
We ask Talking Numbers contributors Richard Ross, Global Technical Strategist at Auerbach Grayson, and Enis Taner, Global Macro Editor at RiskReversal.com, to assess the market and give their forecasts on where it’s headed next.
Ross believes stocks will go higher, saying, “We’d take advantage of this pullback.”
“We’ve seen heightened volatility,” says Ross. “The Dow has experienced triple digit swings in 12 of the last 16 sessions, the most since November 2011. That proved to be the end of a painful correction”
Ross believes history will repeat itself and the market will rally once more the way it did in 2011. However, he thinks it will be less severe.
“This pullback is going to be more shallow than the prior two pullbacks,” says Ross. “This is textbook advancement and retracement.”
On the fundamentals, Taner disagrees with Ross’ assessment. “Since November 2011, earnings growth in the S&P 500 is 3%. Meanwhile, the market is up 25%,” says Taner. “That seems like a bit of a disconnect to me.”
“The market is up only because of sentiment and multiples expansion. It’s not up because of strong earnings growth, strong underlying fundamentals.”
Taner says the global market downturn will have an impact on US markets. “When was the last time we’ve seen decoupling in the global economy?” asks Taner, saying that it didn’t happen in the last two major market downturns.
Watch the video above to hear more about where the market is headed next.
- Federal Reserve Bank