Talking Numbers

Why emerging markets may look good right now

Talking Numbers

Why emerging markets may look good right now

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Why emerging markets may look good right now

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This sector could be the best bet this year

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All the talk has been about how emerging markets hurt stocks everywhere in 2014, but here's something note: emerging markets are actually beating the US market benchmark S&P 500 index.

In the last two month the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (the EEM), which tracks emerging market shares, has outperformed the S&P 500 by giving nearly 7% returns to investors versus the S&P 500's 4%. Granted, the EEM is still down 2% on the year while the S&P 500 is flat.

But, is does that mean there's an opportunity for investors as emerging markets rebound?

CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, says it all depends – on both the country and what happens in the United States.

"[Emerging Markets] were extremely cheap," says Sanchez. "At some point, that cheapness was going to have to give way to the fact that not all emerging markets are created equal."

Each emerging market has a different story even though they were all sold off earlier in the quarter, according to Sanchez.

"You're seeing huge capital outflows in Russia," says Sanchez. "You still have issues with the current account deficits and fiscal deficits in India and Brazil. China is probably the best of all of those stories – they may be slowing but they're not going to fall out of bed. So they're still looking quite good on a relative basis."

But, a recovery in the US economy may attract capital away from emerging markets, thwarting their return. "I'm not sure how much longer this has," says Sanchez.

Returns over last 7 days
Country Tracking ETF Returns
Brazil EWZ 11.1%

Turkey

TUR 8.5%
S. Africa EZA 8.2%
China FXI 8.1%
Chile ECH 7.7%
India PIN 7.1%

 

Mark Newton, Chief Technical Analyst at Greywolf Execution Partners, thinks the technicals on the EEM have been more optimistic as of late.

"It has been a pretty important and bullish move technically over the last few days," says Newton, who sees the EEM breaking a five-month old downward-sloping resistance trend line.

"We've seen very good strength in Brazil, Korea, and Taiwan," says Newton. Though he believes the intermediate-term is technically challenging, he sees the EEM moving higher in the short-term, getting close to $42, if not higher. 

"From my perspective, it looks like another 2% or 3% in the weeks ahead," says Newton. "It remains right to be long, particularly given the stabilization recently in Russia and in China."

To see the full discussion on emerging markets with Sanchez on the fundamentals and Newton on the technicals, watch the video above.

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