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Why gold bugs may be disappointed this week

Talking Numbers

“Gold bugs”? More like “gold crows” because they have a couple of things to crow about. 

Not only is the yellow metal up 10% in 2014, but for the first time since December 2012, investors were net buyers of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (the GLD), the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund. The GLD added a net 10.5 metric tons to its holdings, though that’s still not enough to offset the nearly 553 tons that left the ETF last year.

(Read: Gold ends lower around $1,322; manages monthly gain)

And, on top of all this is the economic, political, and possibly military turmoil going on in Ukraine’s Crimea. Gold is seen by many investors as a safe haven not only from inflation but from any tumult similar to what’s going on in Ukraine.

But CNBC contributor Andrew Busch, editor and publisher of The Busch Update, doesn’t believe gold is a buy just yet. In fact, he sees any really as being a selling opportunity for those with bullion in their portfolios based on the technicals.

Looking at a long-term chart of the GLD (which tracks one-tenth of one Troy ounce of gold) Busch sees a descending triangle pattern, a bearish signal for the metal.

“A descending triangle means the price highs are getting lower and lower,” says Busch. “You want to continue to sell rallies…. Continue to sell gold until we really get a close above $130.”

CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, sees three factors currently in place that are reasons why she’s a seller of the GLD: an economic recovery, a higher interest rate outlook, and a strengthening dollar. Gold’s rally now is due to a potential flare-up in the Crimea, she believes, not a long-term change in the fundamentals.

(Read: What the Ukraine crisis means for markets Monday)

“What’s been fueling this latest rally has been uncertainty in Ukraine,” says Sanchez. “There are going to be little issues that pop up all throughout the year. We’re going to get these brief rallies. But, I think they’re selling opportunities because the longer-term fundamentals still point down for gold.”

Busch, on the other hand, sees relatively soft economic numbers for the near-term which could cause the Federal Reserve to slow down its taper of its bond-buying monetary stimulus program. However, he believes that will be short-lived.

“That should unwind I’m guessing sometime in April,” says Busch. “If this thing in the Ukraine blows up a little more, gold will rally a little bit more but then it will sell off in that time frame starting maybe mid-March into April.”

To see the full discussion on what’s next for gold with Sanchez on the fundamentals and Busch on the technicals, watch the video above.

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