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Why the Oscars can't save Twitter

Why the Oscars can't save Twitter

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Why the Oscars can't save Twitter

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It's being called "The Greatest Selfie Ever"

At Sunday night's Oscar's show, Ellen DeGeneres got actors Jared Leto, Jennifer Lawrence, Channing Tatum, Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Kevin Spacey, Bradley Cooper, Brad Pitt, Lupita Nyong'o (with her brother Peter), and Angelina Jolie to pose for a star-studded selfie posted on Twitter.

(Read: Ellen's Oscar 'selfie' crashes Twitter, breaks record)

With over 2.6 million retweets, it's now the most retweeted tweet of all time, getting more than three times the amount of retweets President Obama's "Four more years" tweet received since 2012.

Twitter has 645 million registered users and 115 million active monthly users so you would think Twitter was the king of mobile social networks. But, you would be wrong: Facebook has 1.23 billion users (757 million daily active users) with 945 million using the mobile version. Facebook's North American users – 19% of its total – surpass that of all of Twitter.

What's more, Twitter sees its growth slowing down; after increasing users by 19% in 2013, the company a drop in growth to 10% by next year and then 6.4% less than half a decade from now.

Given that and the share price's 18% fall in so far this year, should you take a selfie with the Twitter's stock?
"The platform's just fine," says John Stephenson, portfolio manager at First Asset Investment Management. "But, as a stock, I can't see a single good reason why you need to be there."

Stephenson says that as nice as DeGeneres' mega-selfie was, there's a limit to how much Twitter can grow relative to its Facebook because interactions on Twitter aren't as deep as those on its much larger rival.

(See: CNBC's Social Media coverage)

"Out of all Americans who are online," says Stephenson, "four out of five don't use Twitter regularly, compared to Facebook where one in two do. Clearly, it's something the average person struggles to find some use for."

Talking Numbers contributor Richard Ross, Global Technical Strategist at Auerbach Grayson, thinks Twitter's charts are not showing a compelling reason to buy at the moment despite Monday's press attention. 

"Ellen's selfie could be a case of Twitter jumping the snark," says Ross. "This is a company that is trying to find itself not just fundamentally but technically."

Twitter has had a 30% pullback from its highs but, Ross notes, so did Tesla last year before its recent run up to record highs. He sees the stock moving in a downtrend channel and trading below its 50-day moving average.

"Often times, that could just be a countertrend channel," says Ross. "I would be not so much an aggressive buyer here. I would like the stock to be back above that 50-day [moving average], back above that trend channel…. A break above $60 I think would generate a nice buy signal. In the meantime, let's wait and see. If you like the story, you can buy it here on this pullback. But, as I said, don't be too aggressive on this name as it tries to find a home."

To see the full discussion on Twitter with Stephenson on the fundamentals and Ross on the technicals, watch the video above.

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