By Marek Fuchs
Do you want a real challenge? Try figuring out with any degree of metaphysical certainty whether expectations for a particular earnings report are low or high.
Take American International Group’s (AIG) first quarter report, due out Thursday after the bell. And before you jump in, I know what you're going to say: You know the expectations. They stand at 88 cents a share on $8.64 billion in revenue (based here on FactSet calculations).
But in pinpointing the precise trajectory of these expectations, Wall Street estimates are only one factor to consider — and a thin one at that. You need more. Much more. And AIG, in fact, suffers from a particularly lofty set of expectations. Ahead of earnings, here’s what you really want to look at:
Are analysts leaning up or down?
Analysts, guided by signals from AIG, are showing their confidence cards. That 88 cents is up by a factor of a nickel in the past month.
Bend an ear to the whispers
Whisper numbers (which traders throw aboutRead More »from AIG Earnings: Great Expectations