The Exchange
  • Despite Aggressive Fed Inflation, Gold Is Weak

    By Stephen W. Cox, CMT

    For some time now the U.S. Federal Reserve has been printing dollars aggressively but the price of gold, the classical inflation hedge, has languished. Traders who may be doubtful of the dollar/gold relation can see in the long-term charts that both the dollar and gold have ceased to trend for the time being.

    Evidently the spark that will push gold and the dollar in opposite directions is absent now and the yearly charts of the dollar and gold may not diverge until the end of next year. But the charts imply that gold prices will trend favor.

    Apparently gold’s alter ego, the ICE Dollar Index, has sputtered this year. The Index poked up above chart resistance at the middle red channel but now has lapsed back and so may be vulnerable. Certainly the Index won’t be freely bullish until it clears the highest resistance, the highest red channel.

    The yearly chart of spot gold makes it clear that 2013 so far has been good for gold sellers. But it may that 2014 will be

    Read More »from Despite Aggressive Fed Inflation, Gold Is Weak
  • The Economy: Sometimes the More You Learn, the Less You Know

    By Marek Fuchs

    The more you find out about the economy this week, the less you may truly know. And with the first read on Q1 GDP and UPS's (UPS) earnings, we could see prime examples of how appearances can deceive.

    The first draft of first-quarter 2013 GDP is due on Friday, but it should be clearly noted that Friday's number is only an estimate. If history is any guide – and it is – the initial reading could be revised by upwards of 50 percent (up or down, take your pick) in the coming weeks.

    The curious case of 2012’s 4th quarter should serve as a cautionary tale. In late January, the Commerce Department reported its first estimate: down 0.1 percent. Some members of the media went into alarmist overdrive, conjuring up the prospect that the U.S. had stumbled into a recession. Meanwhile, the press largely failed to fulfill its mission of providing context: that initial number is essentially written in sand.

    Sure enough, a month later, the Commerce Department scrubbed the declining

    Read More »from The Economy: Sometimes the More You Learn, the Less You Know
  • Young Scholars Will Bring New Economic Thinking

    By Perry Mehrling

    Look around and you’ll see that the economic problems facing us today are many. Even worse, the most pressing of these problems pose a daunting challenge even to analyze in their full complexity, let alone solve.

    It may seem that implementing any credible solution within current political and economic institutions is at least implausible, if not impossible. So why am I hopeful about the future?

    Because I’ve seen that the new economic thinking we so sorely need is being pursued with great enthusiasm by young people around the globe. These are the people who best understand the failures of the current system and possess the creativity to change it.

    The good thing about youth is that it does not shy away from a challenge, but rather instinctively embraces it. Climb that peak or ski that backwoods slope, but also throw your mind into exploration of a new approach to unsolved intellectual problems and your energies into overcoming obstacles that have defeated all previous

    Read More »from Young Scholars Will Bring New Economic Thinking
  • For Coach (COH), big moves after earnings reports are becoming a habit. That trend was intact Tuesday when the high-end handbag seller topped analysts' earnings estimates and posted surprisingly bright North American numbers, lifting the shares 11%.

    Coach Store: Credit Reuters

    New York-based Coach was expected to earn 80 cents a share on sales of $1.18 billion in the fiscal third quarter, according to FactSet, but it exceeded both, turning a profit of 84 cents a share with revenue of $1.19 billion. However, it was the North American segment, its largest, that was the real standout.

    While the China component of Coach's business remained strong, with sales rising around 40% year over year for the third consecutive quarter, domestic sales totaled $792 million, up 7% from the prior year. More impressively, same-store sales were much better than predicted, climbing 1%, compared with a decline of 1.4% that had been foreseen by Wall Street analysts.

    Coming into the quarter, it would have been easy to imagine a drab

    Read More »from Coach Stock Jumps After Sales Surprise

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