The Exchange
  • The Economy: Sometimes the More You Learn, the Less You Know

    By Marek Fuchs

    The more you find out about the economy this week, the less you may truly know. And with the first read on Q1 GDP and UPS's (UPS) earnings, we could see prime examples of how appearances can deceive.

    The first draft of first-quarter 2013 GDP is due on Friday, but it should be clearly noted that Friday's number is only an estimate. If history is any guide – and it is – the initial reading could be revised by upwards of 50 percent (up or down, take your pick) in the coming weeks.

    The curious case of 2012’s 4th quarter should serve as a cautionary tale. In late January, the Commerce Department reported its first estimate: down 0.1 percent. Some members of the media went into alarmist overdrive, conjuring up the prospect that the U.S. had stumbled into a recession. Meanwhile, the press largely failed to fulfill its mission of providing context: that initial number is essentially written in sand.

    Sure enough, a month later, the Commerce Department scrubbed the declining

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  • Young Scholars Will Bring New Economic Thinking

    By Perry Mehrling

    Look around and you’ll see that the economic problems facing us today are many. Even worse, the most pressing of these problems pose a daunting challenge even to analyze in their full complexity, let alone solve.

    It may seem that implementing any credible solution within current political and economic institutions is at least implausible, if not impossible. So why am I hopeful about the future?

    Because I’ve seen that the new economic thinking we so sorely need is being pursued with great enthusiasm by young people around the globe. These are the people who best understand the failures of the current system and possess the creativity to change it.

    The good thing about youth is that it does not shy away from a challenge, but rather instinctively embraces it. Climb that peak or ski that backwoods slope, but also throw your mind into exploration of a new approach to unsolved intellectual problems and your energies into overcoming obstacles that have defeated all previous

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  • For Coach (COH), big moves after earnings reports are becoming a habit. That trend was intact Tuesday when the high-end handbag seller topped analysts' earnings estimates and posted surprisingly bright North American numbers, lifting the shares 11%.

    Coach Store: Credit Reuters

    New York-based Coach was expected to earn 80 cents a share on sales of $1.18 billion in the fiscal third quarter, according to FactSet, but it exceeded both, turning a profit of 84 cents a share with revenue of $1.19 billion. However, it was the North American segment, its largest, that was the real standout.

    While the China component of Coach's business remained strong, with sales rising around 40% year over year for the third consecutive quarter, domestic sales totaled $792 million, up 7% from the prior year. More impressively, same-store sales were much better than predicted, climbing 1%, compared with a decline of 1.4% that had been foreseen by Wall Street analysts.

    Coming into the quarter, it would have been easy to imagine a drab

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  • All Is Not Well in Italy

    By Desmond Lachman

    If ever one needed evidence that excessive money printing by the Federal Reserve and by the Bank of Japan was seriously distorting global market prices, all one need do is to look at the EUR 2 trillion Italian sovereign-debt market. For despite the clearest of evidence of a marked deterioration in the Italian political and economic outlook, over the past three months Italian government bond prices have rallied to their strongest levels in the past two years.

    The current mispricing of Italian government bonds is most unfortunate. Since not only does it remove pressure on Italian politicians to get their country’s political and economic house in order. It also lulls European policymakers into a false sense of security that somehow Europe is going to muddle through its sovereign debt crisis without basic institutional changes to the European Monetary Union.

    The troubling outcome of the February 25 Italian parliamentary elections, together with the considerable

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