By Marek Fuchs
The more you find out about the economy this week, the less you may truly know. And with the first read on Q1 GDP and UPS's (UPS) earnings, we could see prime examples of how appearances can deceive.
The first draft of first-quarter 2013 GDP is due on Friday, but it should be clearly noted that Friday's number is only an estimate. If history is any guide – and it is – the initial reading could be revised by upwards of 50 percent (up or down, take your pick) in the coming weeks.
The curious case of 2012’s 4th quarter should serve as a cautionary tale. In late January, the Commerce Department reported its first estimate: down 0.1 percent. Some members of the media went into alarmist overdrive, conjuring up the prospect that the U.S. had stumbled into a recession. Meanwhile, the press largely failed to fulfill its mission of providing context: that initial number is essentially written in sand.
Sure enough, a month later, the Commerce Department scrubbed the decliningRead More »from The Economy: Sometimes the More You Learn, the Less You Know