The Exchange
  • Do European Stock Markets Predict European Elections?

    By Alan Hall

    The Socionomics Institute has examined what swept heads of state from power in recent elections all across Europe.

    In January 2012, the Institute reported a strong statistical connection between U.S. presidents’ winning/losing re-election bids and the U.S. stock market’s prior net percentage change. The Institute reported its findings in “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results.” The paper generated considerable media interest, became SSRN’s third most downloaded paper for 2012 and ranked #70 out of 67,000 papers overall. (To read the paper, click here.)

    Given the strength of the U.S. results, we decided to compare recent European election results versus each country’s prior market performance. For multiple reasons, it is difficult to formulate an apples-to-apples comparison in each of these countries. But we nevertheless found compelling evidence that voters in Europe, like those in the U.S.,

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  • The relatively high pay and high demand for nurses have made it one of a handful of professions attracting more men since the recession shifted the gender-employment picture. And now it looks like male nurses are earning more than their female colleagues.

    According to a Census Bureau study published Monday, men account for 9.6% of all nurses in 2011, up from 2.7% in 1970. Male nurses earned, on average, $60,700 a year, while women earned $51,100 per year. (Until recently, the Census Bureau didn’t distinguish among various nursing jobs. Starting in 2010, it split the category of registered nurse into four occupations: registered nurse, nurse anesthetist, nurse midwife and nurse practitioner, and therefore is able to better examine men’s representation in the different occupations.)

    Traditionally male professions like manufacturing and construction suffered greatly since the downturn. According to a 2012 brief by the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank, the construction sector

    Read More »from Male Nurses Becoming More Commonplace — and Higher Paid
  • El-Erian: Maintaining the Stock Market Rally

    By Mohamed A. El-Erian

    Week in and week out, three hypotheses invigorate and sustain the stock market rally. The three are valid. Yet their longer-term implications may be far more complex than most investors fully appreciate.

    Equity markets believe in the "Fed put," or the view that the Federal Reserve will increase its monetary policy stimulus in response to any (and all) meaningful decline in risk assets.

    This dynamic is reinforced by the revealed preference of the Fed. It is also consistent with the institution’s policy objective – that of enhancing economic growth and job creation by pushing up financial asset prices and thus reviving animal spirits and triggering wealth effects.

    Second, market participants also have reason to believe that the steadfast focus of the Fed forces other central banks around the world into more accommodating monetary policy.

    The ongoing U-turn by the Bank of Japan, a central bank that long held the view that the collateral damage of prolonged

    Read More »from El-Erian: Maintaining the Stock Market Rally
  • The Triumph of the Virtual Corporation

    By Jerry Davis

    This post is part of an Aspen Institute Business & Society Program conversation series exploring ways to align the incentives of business and the capital markets with the long-term health of society. To learn more, visit www.aspeninstitute.org/bsp.

    Dell’s (DELL) buyout is the latest in a series of firms leaving the public market. Since 1997, the number of American companies listed on stock markets has dropped by more than half, from more than 8,800 to roughly 4,100. Some firms leave the market due to mergers or going private (Dell), while many are delisted due to bankruptcy or liquidation (Circuit City, Borders, or Eastman Kodak).

    But Dell's buyout represents something bigger: The triumph of the virtual corporation.

    Dell's announcement coincided with the 20th anniversary of Business Week's famous 1993 cover story on "The virtual corporation." The virtual corporation was described as a temporary network of specialists that could be snapped together and re-configured like

    Read More »from The Triumph of the Virtual Corporation

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