By Alan Hall
The Socionomics Institute has examined what swept heads of state from power in recent elections all across Europe.
In January 2012, the Institute reported a strong statistical connection between U.S. presidents’ winning/losing re-election bids and the U.S. stock market’s prior net percentage change. The Institute reported its findings in “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results.” The paper generated considerable media interest, became SSRN’s third most downloaded paper for 2012 and ranked #70 out of 67,000 papers overall. (To read the paper, click here.)
Given the strength of the U.S. results, we decided to compare recent European election results versus each country’s prior market performance. For multiple reasons, it is difficult to formulate an apples-to-apples comparison in each of these countries. But we nevertheless found compelling evidence that voters in Europe, like those in the U.S.,Read More »from Do European Stock Markets Predict European Elections?