The Exchange
  • Can Egypt Live Without Private Investment?

    By Vin Weber

    As the political crisis in Egypt continues to evolve, American and European investors are becoming increasingly troubled by what they see as a lack of legal and regulatory security. Two years ago, the theme was revolution as the heroes of Tahrir Square demonstrated that courage in the face of tyranny could produce societal change. Today, many are shying away from the term "revolution" as the fledgling democracy struggles to implement a new constitution and forge its institutions.

    Predictably, investors are taking notice of this unstable political climate. Egypt’s Central Bank recently announced that foreign investors withdrew $5 billion from the country within the last six months. When an Egyptian appeals court annulled the privatization of a textile company on the grounds that the government should never have sold it in the first place, alarms sounded throughout business communities around the world. Not only do investors believe private capital to be under assault but

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  • The Education Industry Faces A Multi-Decade Peak

    By Alan Hall

    America’s higher education business has hit a patch of trouble. A massive shift in society’s attitudes toward education is beginning. Educational institutions should soon encounter spectacular challenges to survival.

    Signs of Peak Psychology

    Society’s feelings about education shift in concert with social mood. As a 1987 report, “Changing Public Attitudes Toward Higher Education,” said:

    In the late 1940s … people had no quarrel with colleges. They wanted more of them, they wanted more young people to go, and they admired professors. This approving public attitude … continued into and throughout the Golden Era of higher education (1955–1970) … . The confidence of the general public in colleges and universities … diminished between 1965 and 1985, a period of time in which … the public and elected officials look[ed] critically at higher education.

    That bear-market attitude shifted again in the subsequent bull market. Public Agenda’s report on education, “Great Expectations,”

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  • Were Financial Markets Misled by the Fed Minutes?

    By Terry Connelly

    In the hours following the February 20 release of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee January 2013 meeting, US equity markets dropped over one percent reversing a steady upward climb that had persisted since the swerve around the "Fiscal Cliff" at the start of the year (except for a brief flutter down in early January when the minutes of their previous meeting in December were released).

    What is it about Fed minutes that give “commentators” (many of whom are notorious short sellers) ammunition to talk down the markets so they can shake stocks out of weak hands and then buy them cheaper? In this case, it was the “revelation” that there were voices on the Fed that had doubts about the cost-benefits of the Quantitative Easing program of $85 billion per month government debt and mortgage bond purchases that the Central Bank has undertaken to stimulate extension of cheap credit to businesses and householders and thereby encourage hiring.

    Given that the Fed’s QE

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  • In a sign that American consumers' restraint may be easing, household debt rose at the end of last year after four years of declines.

    In the fourth quarter of 2012, outstanding consumer debt rose 0.3% -- or $31 billion -- from the previous quarter to total $11.34 trillion, according to the latest report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Total debt, though, is still considerably lower than its peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008, at the beginning of the financial crisis.

    Mortgage debt, by far the largest component of household debt, was about flat in the fourth quarter at $8.6 trillion. Non-housing debt is where the increase came, particularly student loans, which increased $10 billion from the previous quarter to $966 billion. In fact, student debt was the only type of consumer borrowing that continued to rise through the Great Recession and now has the second-largest balance after mortgage debt.

    “The data provides early evidence that consumers may be reaching

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(706 Stories)
 
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