The Exchange

  • Apple looks bullish into earnings

    Yahoo Finance at The Exchange1 day ago

    Erik Swarts is an independent trader and market technician. He writes the superb and provocative Market Anthropology Blog.

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  • There's no such thing as a "stock picker's market"

    Yahoo Finance at The Exchange1 day ago

    Charlie Bilello, CMT is the director of research at Pension Partners, LLC. He's responsible for strategy development, investment research and communicating the firm's investment themes and porfolio positioning to clients. Follow Charlie's smart Twitter stream here > @MktOutperform.

    One of the most misused and destructive phrases in the investment world is the notion of a “stock picker’s market.” In a relentless uptrending market, investors become highly confident in their ability to pick stocks and almost any name they buy is going “up and to the right.” We saw the most extreme example of this in 2013, which set a record in terms of breadth with 93% of stocks in the S&P 500 finishing positive on the year. Never mind the fact that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts was likely to pick a winning stock last year; most investors came out of 2013 believing they were the next Warren Buffett.

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  • Huge week ahead: Estimize earnings preview for the week of April 21

    Yahoo Finance at The Exchange2 days ago

    is a free open online platform that allows users to contribute their own financial forecasts. By tapping into the wisdom of the crowd, Estimize has created a data set that is more representative of actual market expectations and is more accurate than the traditional Wall Street consensus up to 69.5% of the time.

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  • One thing you can’t say to voters about the economy

    Rick Newman at The Exchange6 days ago

    You can point out how rich the 1% are, or pound home how hard it is to keep up these days. But whatever you do, don’t act like there’s a “recovery.”

    That’s the advice from a prominent public-policy firm to Democratic politicians running for reelection this year. Democracy Corps, founded by Democratic strategists James Carville and Stan Greenberg, recently conducted a series of polls to determine how candidates can best connect with voters as they campaign for the 2014 midterm elections in November. The results show just how disheartened many Americans are about their economic prospects, even though the recovery is technically entering its fifth year.

    By some measures, the economy is getting back to normal. The unemployment rate is down from a peak of 10% in 2010 to 6.7% today. In aggregate, Americans have regained all the wealth lost during the twin housing and stock-market busts, and then some. After six years of extraordinary intervention, the Federal Reserve is beginning to back away from the super-easy monetary policies it adopted to nurse the economy through dark times.

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