The Exchange
  • There’s no love lost between political parties this Valentine's Day as lawmakers edge closer to the automatic cuts in federal spending referred to as sequestration.

    Those reductions, an agreed-upon provision formulated during previous debt ceiling negotiations, are set to kick in March 1 if no resolution is reached, and they would carve $85 billion out of the government’s budget in the next seven months. President Obama and Democrats in the Senate are expected to unveil legislation Thursday to avoid sequestration. But the proposal, which reportedly includes items such as a minimum tax rate on those with earnings above $1 million, is not expected to make it through Republicans.

    [Read More: Democrats to unveil bill to replace budget cuts]

    With every day that passes, the sequester looks more likely, which has led JPMorgan economist Mike Feroli to lower his forecast for the nation's growth in 2013. JPMorgan’s previous outlook had assumed the cuts would be avoided. “That assumption is

    Read More »from JPMorgan Economist Cuts GDP Estimate for Sequester
  • Individual investors are getting another lesson in the joy of boring, as Warren Buffett, the master of banal who's only one of the richest people on earth, said he'll be part of a group that's buying ketchup maker H.J. Heinz (HNZ).

    Heinz ketchup bottles: Credit AP Who cares. Nobody, unless you're one of the folks getting a 20% surge today and a nearly 19% premium to the best level the stock has ever reached. In this case, the $28 billion deal, including assumed debt, will see Pittsburgh-based Heinz bought for $72.50 a share by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) and investment firm 3G Capital. Its highest-ever close was $61, a record set earlier this month and one that will be a distant memory by the end of trading Thursday.

    If you had Heinz yesterday, good for you -- but not just for what's transpired with the buyout. If you've been around for any length of time, you've had a stock that's climbed six of the past seven years, with a five-year mean increase of 5.2%. It tends to raise its dividend on a regular basis

    Read More »from Heinz: So Boring It Just Makes Money
  • Now Is Not the Time to Raise the Minimum Wage

    By Michael Strain

    In diagnosing the state of our union, President Obama correctly observed that “our economy is adding jobs -- but too many people still can’t find full-time employment.” But the president’s call to increase the federal minimum wage by over 24 percent will make it harder for firms to hire workers because it will make workers more expensive. The minimum wage should not be increased, especially given the dismal state of the labor market.

    The past several months have seen much attention paid to our fiscal imbalance. This attention is appropriate — our debt and structural deficit are important problems that require difficult solutions. But even informed citizens would think that the deficit is the biggest problem facing the United States today. It isn’t. We have a fiscal problem, but we have an immediate labor market crisis.

    Unemployment Is Still High

    The headline unemployment rate has dropped from its high of around ten percent to its current value of 7.9 percent. This

    Read More »from Now Is Not the Time to Raise the Minimum Wage
  • A Correction in Credit Card Shares Is Imminent

    By Stephen W. Cox, CMT

    Traders who relish risk are liable to find plenty of it that now that shares of credit card companies, which have racked up enviable gains over the past year, are now losing upside momentum on the charts and I conclude that a correction is imminent.

    But risk in this case is the fact that shares are consolidating near uptrend highs and so sales are strictly aggressive.

    The weekly chart of MasterCard (MA) shares makes the point of waning upside momentum explicit, that is, the six chart bars at the top of the uptrend. Their horizontal march across the chart betrays uptrend exhaustion. I call this phenomenon a “drifting top.” It’s notable that the bar of three weeks ago, the trend high, reached up just above $535.00 before losing more than half of that week’s gain, an instance of what some traders call a “rejection of the high” of last week in this case. And in case shares of MasterCard should break down on the weekly chart then shares will be targeting $485.00, an

    Read More »from A Correction in Credit Card Shares Is Imminent

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