If every day this month had been like Friday, then "sell in May and go away" would be an accurate statement for 2013. However, despite the steep late-day selloff on the final day of the month, the major indices ended May firmly on the upside, with the Dow gaining 1.86%, the S&P up 2.08% and the Nasdaq seeing a 3.82% rise.
Still, as Yahoo! Finance Editor in Chief Aaron Task and Henry Blodget point out in this Daily Ticker segment, the "tally doesn’t really count until the end of the 'worst six months' period." With June traditionally being a weak month for Wall Street, are we headed for a swoon over the next 30 days? Or, as our Breakout colleagues asked on Friday: What comes after a seven-month rally? Crash, correction or pullback?
And as the 10-year note yield soars above 2% and Treasuries see their worst month since 2010, is this bond selloff the "real thing?" (For your edification: Goldman Sachs (GS) says "Yes" while UBS (UBS) says "Not really.")
[See related: With Dividend Chase Skidding, Stocks Seek New Driver]
In a world where investors might "fear the taper" and bad news can be good for the market, all of this remains to be seen as we head into the final month of the second quarter of 2013. And busy days are ahead, with the key jobs report for May capping a week that includes a meeting between President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping, another IRS hearing, several Fed speakers, an ECB policy meeting, auto sales numbers and a smattering of earnings reports. Scheduled guests on Daily Ticker and Breakout include Meredith Whitney, Paul Hickey and former Yahoo! Finance columnist Daniel Gross.
Oh, yes, and if you have a few million bucks on hand, you can bid for a chat and chew session with Warren Buffett (Dairy Queen burgers, anyone?). Hey, it did wonders for Ted Weschler.
Here's a look at highlights of the week ahead:
Sunday, June 2
- Warren Buffett’s annual lunch auction for charity kicks off. Last year’s winner paid $3,456,789 to eat a meal with the Oracle of Omaha.
- Commencement speech season: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at Princeton, where he worked as a tenured professor from 1985 to 2005.
- China PMI manufacturing index released at 9:45 p.m. ET
Monday, June 3
- First trading day of the final month of the second quarter
- Possible IPOs this week: RCS Capital Corp., Colony American Homes, LightintheBox Holding Co., Textura
- Press conference in Taipei to possibly reveal the Mozilla/Foxconn tablet discussed this past week on Daily Ticker
- WikiLeaks scandal: Court martial of U.S. Army intelligence analyst Bradley Manning, who faced charges related to the passing of government secrets to the WikiLeaks site
- Another IRS hearing: Acting Commissioner Danny Werfel testifies to House Appropriations Committee oversight hearing
- Data: ISM manufacturing index, 10:00 a.m. ET; construction spending, 10:00 a.m. ET
- Foreign data: EU manufacturing index, 4:00 a.m. ET
- From Breakout: No, this is NOT a stock bubble! says Ben Stein; Will there be a June swoon in stocks?
- From Daily Ticker: Heidi Moore and former Yahoo! Finance columnist Daniel Gross debate the economic recovery
Tuesday, June 4
- Auto sales roll out throughout the day
- Shareholders meeting: The recently “supercharged” Tesla (TSLA), which broke $100 a share for the first time this week (and is up a whopping 96% in May alone)
- Fed speakers: Esther George, Sarah Bloom Raskin, Richard Fisher
- Earnings: Dollar General (DG)
- Obama meets with Chile President Sebastian Pinera at the White House
- Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius testifies to House committee on fiscal year 2014 budget
- Data: International trade, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Foreign data: EU PPI, 5:00 a.m. ET; China PMI composite, 9:45 p.m. ET
- Auction: 4-week bill
- From Breakout: Elliott Wave socioeconomics researcher Euan Wilson on why stock market highs might hurt marijuana legalization efforts; Paul Hickey from Bespoke Investment Group
Wednesday, June 5
- Data: ADP employment report, 8:15 a.m. ET; productivity and costs, 8:30 a.m. ET; factory orders, 10:00 a.m. ET; ISM non-manufacturing index, 10:00 a.m. ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report, 10:30 a.m. ET
- Foreign data: EU PMI composite, 4:00 a.m. ET; EU GDP and retail sales, 5:00 a.m. ET
- Shareholders meetings: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Yelp (YELP)
- Earnings: Annie’s (BNNY), Hot Topic (HOTT), Hovnavian (HOV) Restoration Hardware (RH)
- Fed beige book, 2:00 p.m. ET
- From Daily Ticker: Banking analyst Meredith Whitney
Thursday, June 6
- ECB meeting, with ECB President Mario Draghi presser to follow; the latest chatter points to no action being taken here after rates were cut at the last meeting
- Chain store sales out in the a.m.
- Other data: Challenger job-cut report, 7:30 a.m. ET; jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. ET, GDP by state, 8:30 a.m. ET; quarterly services survey, 10:00 a.m. ET
- Shareholders meetings: Wal-Mart (WMT), Google (GOOG), GM (GM)
- Earnings: Smucker (SJM), Ann (ANN)
- Fed speakers: Sarah Bloom Raskin, Charles Plosser
Friday, June 7
- Key jobs report from BLS for May, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Other data: Consumer credit, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Obama meets Chinese President Xi JinPing for two-day meeting in California; it’s their first meeting since Xi became president.
- Warren Buffett lunch auction closes
- From Breakout: Jim Paulsen from Wells Capital for reaction to jobs report
- From Daily Ticker: Analyst Maria Ramirez reacts to jobs report