Greg Harmon is the founder and CIO of Presiium Capital and the founder of Dragonfly Capital Management. He is an a ccomplished trader and a master technician. He earned an MBA from NYU Stern School of Business and a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Cornell. Read his superb blog here.
Microsoft (MSFT) is doing the unthinkable. After 12 years trading in a box consolidation it is breaking out to the upside.
The stock has truly been a dog. Trading between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the move higher from the dot com bubble for most of that 12 years it did show signs of strength that I noted in March 2012 and traded off of.
But the big test is now upon us. At the top of the box with a Measured Move to 54 on a break higher. From there it is just a stone’s throw to retrace to the previous high at 60 with some resistance at 40 and 46 along the way. The Relative Strength Index is supporting a continuation and the MACD is rising, also in support of higher prices. Finally the Bollinger bands are turning higher and opening while the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are all below the price and now rising. These are all positive technicals.
If you want a stock to invest in this looks like a winner as it moves over 38.
[For the other side of the Microsoft trade, click here.]
- NYU Stern School of Business