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    3:29 pm - Treasuries Reverse from Lows to End on Highs

    • The U.S. Treasury trade was quite volatile today as government notes and bonds sold off ahead of and immediately following the economic data releases at 08:30 ET but rallied from those lows to end on highs. The U.S. economic data out today showed that consumers saved their income gains in March and that consumer sentiment was worse than originally estimated in April, according to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey. The Chicago PMI fell more than expected in April to a level just barely indicating expansion in economic activity. Overnight, the Japanese yen surged higher on a fresh wave of risk aversion and the S&P 500 took that cue to decline 0.77% to 2,059.7 at the time of writing. The jump in the yen and better-than-expected Q1 growth for the eurozone pushed the U.S. Dollar Index down 0.72% to 93.08, an eight-month low. Gold traded up to a 15-month high of $1,299/troy oz. and oil prices declined from a five-month high of $46.78/bbl. as the selling in equities gathered pace
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: -3 bps to 0.76%
      • 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.28%
      • 10-yr: -1 bp to 1.82%
      • 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.66%
    • News:
      • Personal income grew by 0.4% in March, beating the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 0.3%. Personal income expanded by 0.2% in February
        • Personal spending rose 0.1% in March, missing the Briefing.com consensus of 0.2% after growing 0.1% in February
      • PCE Prices edged up 0.1% in March, in line with the Briefing.com consensus of 0.1%. PCE Prices grew 0.1% in February
        • Core PCE inflation also rose 0.1% m/m in March
      • The Employment Cost Index rose by 0.6% in the first quarter, in line with the Briefing.com consensus and the Q4 2015 reading
      • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-FOMC voter) said this morning that he will advocate gradual interest rate policy normalization as long as inflation keeps moving higher and the U.S. economy stays near full employment
        • Kaplan also said that Brexit referendum risks will be a factor in Fed decisions
      • The Chicago PMI fell to 50.4 in April from 53.6 in March, missing the Briefing.com consensus of 53.3
        The details were weak as well, with the employment subindex back in negative territory
      • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was finalized at 89.0 for April, revised down from the initial estimate of 89.7 and lower than the March reading of 91.0
      • The downward revision was fed by the Index of Consumer Expectations, which dropped to 77.6 with the final reading from 79.6 with the preliminary reading. The final reading for this index in March was 81.5
    • Commodities:
      • WTI crude: -0.07% to $46.00/bbl.
      • Gold: +2.29% to $1,295.4/troy oz.
      • Copper: +2.24% to $2.2815/lb.
    • Currencies:
      • EUR/USD: +0.85% to 1.1448
      • USD/JPY: -1.40% to 106.61
    • Week Ahead:
      • Monday: April ISM Index (10:00 ET); March Construction Spending (10:00 ET); San Francisco Fed President Williams (non-FOMC voter) 'Systemic Risk: Inevitable or Preventable?' (17:30 ET)
      • Tuesday: April Auto and Truck Sales (14:00 ET); Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) moderates panel 'Unconventional Wisdom: How Will Unusual Monetary Policy Affect Market Liquidity' (10:30 ET); Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (non-FOMC voter) (19:00 ET)
      • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending 4/30 (07:00 ET); April ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET); Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs - Preliminary (08:30 ET); March Trade Balance (08:30 ET); March Factory Orders (10:00 ET); April ISM Services (10:00 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 4/30 (10:30 ET); Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-FOMC voter) (17:30 ET)
      • Thursday: April Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET); Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4/30 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 4/23 (08:30 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 4/30 (10:30 ET); St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) (11:50 ET); Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-FOMC voter) panel on 'International Monetary Policy and Reform in Practice (19:15 ET)
      • Friday: April Employment Situation Report (08:30 ET); March Consumer Credit (15:00 ET)

    2:28 pm - Dollar Index Trades 8-Month Low

    • The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.69% to 93.11, an eight-month low today as the Japanese yen surged to an 18-month high and the euro missed a seven-month high by a hair on the back of better-than-expected eurozone GDP growth in Q1. The Australian and Canadian dollars retreated against the greenback, the former on lower-than-expected inflation and the latter on a now-rare decline in oil prices.
    • EUR/USD: +0.86% to 1.1449
      • The eurozone's GDP grew at a 0.6% annualized rate for Q1 2016, better than economists had expected. Q4 2015 growth was 0.3%
        • The French economy beat expectations at 0.5% growth for Q1, and Spain continued to power on at 0.8%
      • The eurozone's consumer price index fell 0.2% y/y in April, lower than both expectations and the March reading of no change
      • Eurozone unemployment unexpectedly declined to 10.2% in March, the lowest rate since August 2011. Economists had forecast no change from February's 10.3%
    • GBP/USD: unch at 1.4604
      • U.K. mortgage approvals fell to a four-month low of 71,400 in March, down from 73,900 in February. The catch-all excuse of Brexit uncertainty has been cited as a factor along with the upcoming implementation of a new stamp duty on buy-to-let purchases. The theory goes that home-buyers bought earlier in the year to avoid paying the tax
    • USD/CHF: -0.77% to 0.9592
    • USD/JPY: -1.33% to 106.70
    • USD/CAD: +0.15% to 1.2569
    • AUD/USD: -0.38% to 0.7597
      • Australia's producer price index unexpectedly fell 0.2% q/q in the first quarter after rising 0.3% in Q4 2015
    • NZD/USD: +0.24% to 0.6974
      • In New Zealand, the ANZ Business Confidence Index rose three points to 6.2 in April
        Building permits in New Zealand plunged by 9.8% m/m, the largest decline since September 2014, after seeing 10.3% growth in February
    • USD/RUB: +0.26% to 64.79
      • Russia's central bank kept its main policy rate on hold at 11% and said that it would resume gradual loosening of policy if inflation settles down

    1:15 pm - Stocks Rally Further

    • Treasuries are trading with minor losses this afternoon as the S&P 500 pares its loss to 0.64% at 2,062.4. WTI crude remains weak, down 0.50% to $45.80/bbl. Natural gas has shown signs of life in the past hour, now trading up 4.14% to $2.163/mbtu and the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.67% to 93.13. Gold is up 2.09% to $1,292.9/troy oz.
    • Tim Duy, our favorite Fed watcher and professor of economics at the University of Oregon, is warning of a new hawkish streak at the FOMC
      • While the regional Fed presidents are, in fact, sounding more hawkish (particularly Rosengren and Williams), Fed Chair Yellen appears to have become more dovish
    • George Magnus, an economic adviser at UBS, has a piece on the Financial Times' website about China's credit bubble
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: unch at 0.79%
      • 5-yr: +1 bp to 1.30%
      • 10-yr: +2 bps to 1.84%
      • 30-yr: +2 bps to 2.70%

    12:25 pm - Oil Trades Lower

    • Treasuries are backing off of their best levels as the S&P 500 has rebounded six points from its session low, now down 0.83% to 2,058.5
    • WTI crude has seen selling pressure today along with equities and WTI is 0.70% lower to $45.71/bbl.
    • The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.64% to 93.16, having traded down to 93.01 earlier
    • Gold traded as high as $1,299, but is now up 2.16% to $1,293.8/troy oz.
    • Standard & Poor's confirmed the U.K.'s credit rating at AAA with outlook "negative" on the uncertainty surrounding the June 23 referendum on European Union membership
    • Canadian ratings agency DBRS affirms Portugal's credit rating at BBB 
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: -1 bp to 0.78%
      • 5-yr: unch at 1.29%
      • 10-yr: +1 bp to 1.83%
      • 30-yr: +1 bp to 2.69%

    12:10 pm - DXY Slips to 2016 Lows: The Dollar Index hit fresh 2016 lows as its sell off continued. The DXY fell to 93.06 and has fallen 6% since the beginning of February. The 52-week flash low of 92.62 set back on August 24 will move into focus. Economic data was mixed in line today as we saw Personal Income beat, Core PCE Prices report in line and then slight misses in Spending, Chicago PMI, and the Michigan Sentiment revision.

    • The euro was able to rally to 1.1460, just shy of the April high of 1.1462. 1.15 will set up as the key resistance test for the single currency. The move today is also bolstered by GDP data which came in better than expected for the region. However CPI numbers remain weak suggesting the ECB will continue to keep its foot on the pedal as it tries to reinvigorate pricing.
    • The pound rallied to 1.4671, its best level since January 8. A weak dollar and some receding fears on a Brexit have helped provide a boost to sterling. It has now rallied 2.5% over the back end of April.
    • The yen continues to see aggressive buying as it rallied to 106.64. This marks an 18-month high for the currency. The buying has continued following the inaction by the Bank of Japan on Wednesday night. Japanese markets were closed today but that has not stopped the yen from its rally.
    • The People's Bank of China fixed the yuan 0.6% higher, the largest one-day appreciation since the big August moves. The move follows the fall in the dollar which had impacted the pegged yuan. The yuan is now trading at 6.48 against the greenback.

    11:22 am - Dollar Index on Lows

    • Treasuries are on the way up again after Dallas Fed President Kaplan made further comments:
      • He said that if the economic data remain strong, he would advocate for a rate hike in the near future
      • Kaplan said that the Bank of Japan's monetary policy cannot address the aging of the population or the country's debt/GDP ratio
      • He said that Brexit risks will be a factor in Fed decisions
      • Lastly, he said that the U.S. consumer is getting stronger and he is hoping that Q2 economic data will improve from Q1
    • The S&P 500 is near its session low, down 0.77% to 2,059.7
    • WTI crude is down 0.11% to $45.98/bbl.
    • The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.74% to 93.07
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: -1 bp to 0.78%
      • 5-yr: +1 bp to 1.30%
      • 10-yr: +2 bps to 1.84%
      • 30-yr: +1 bps to 2.70%
    • 10-Year Yield (15-Minute Bars): We will be watching this uptrend (straight red line) for yield support. One would have liked to see the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (1.843%) hold and that level may be breaking as of writing

    10:29 am - Stocks Bounce from Lows

    • Treasuries continue to whipsaw through their ranges despite significant losses in U.S. stocks (S&P 500: -0.50% to 2,065.4) and weaker-than-expected economic data
    • Gold is at a fresh 15-month high, up 1.70% to $1,288.0/troy oz. WTI crude is up 0.59% to $46.30/bbl. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.57% to 93.23
    • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was finalized at 89.0 for April, revised down from the initial estimate of 89.7 and lower than the March reading of 91.0
      • The downward revision was fed by the Index of Consumer Expectations, which dropped to 77.6 with the final reading from 79.6 with the preliminary reading. The final reading for this index in March was 81.5
      • The Current Economic Conditions Index ticked up to 106.7 in the final reading from 105.4 in the preliminary reading. The final reading for this index in March was 105.6.
      • Notwithstanding the gains in employment, the drop in gas prices, rising home values, and the increase in stock prices, the Index of Consumer Sentiment was down 7.2% from the April 2015 reading of 95.9. The Index of Consumer Expectations, though, has seen an even bigger decline, falling 12.6% from the 88.8 reading in April 2015.
      • April is the fourth straight month that there has been a decline in consumer sentiment
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: unch at 0.79%
      • 5-yr: +2 bps to 1.31%
      • 10-yr: +3 bps to 1.85%
      • 30-yr: +3 bps to 2.71%

    10:01 am - Stocks Sell on Month-End Portfolio Flows

    • The Chicago PMI fell to 50.4 in April from 53.6 in March, missing the Briefing.com consensus of 53.3
      • The details were weak as well, with the employment subindex back in negative territory
    • Treasuries are steady after the release. The S&P 500 has broken down and is off 0.49% to 2,065.5. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.59% to 93.20 and WTI crude is up 1.19% to $46.58/bbl. Gold is up 1.56% to $1,286.1/troy oz.
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: +1 bp to 0.80%
      • 5-yr: +2 bps to 1.31%
      • 10-yr: +3 bps to 1.85%
      • 30-yr: +2 bps to 2.71%
    • 30-Year Yield (Daily):

    09:04 am - Stocks Set to Open Lower

    • U.S. Treasuries swooned this morning ahead of and after the 08:30 ET economic data releases but have since rebounded and are sitting on modest losses. The S&P 500 is set to lose 0.21% to 2,071.4 at the open and WTI crude has pulled back to add just 0.63% to $46.32/bbl. on the session
    • The U.S. Dollar Index is up from its low, now losing 0.46% to 93.33
    • Canadian GDP contracted by 0.1% m/m in February, better than expectations but much worse than the 0.6% growth in January. The year-on-year rate for February was 1.5%
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: +1 bp to 0.80%
      • 5-yr: +3 bps to 1.32%
      • 10-yr: +3 bps to 1.85%
      • 30-yr: +2 bps to 2.70%
    • 10-Year Yield (15-Minute):

    08:42 am - Consumers Save More in March

    • Personal income grew by 0.4% in March, beating the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 0.3%. Personal income expanded by 0.2% in February
      • Personal spending rose 0.1% in March, missing the Briefing.com consensus of 0.2% after growing 0.1% in February
    • PCE Prices edged up 0.1% in March, in line with the Briefing.com consensus of 0.1%. PCE Prices grew 0.1% in February
      • Core PCE inflation also rose 0.1% m/m in March
    • The Employment Cost Index rose by 0.6% in the first quarter, in line with the Briefing.com consensus and the Q4 2015 reading
    • Treasuries fell sharply after the data dump although they were lower already ahead of the release. They Treasury complex has been rebounding in recent trades
    • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-FOMC voter) said this morning that he will advocate gradual interest rate policy normalization as long as inflation keeps moving higher and the U.S. economy stays near full employment
    • The S&P 500 is indicated to open down 0.13% to 2,073.4 and WTI crude is up 1.00% to $46.49/bbl.
    • The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.60% to 93.19, on its session low, and gold is up 1.16% $1,281.2/troy oz.
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: unch at 0.79%
      • 5-yr: +3 bps to 1.31%
      • 10-yr: +4 bps to 1.86%
      • 30-yr: +3 bps to 2.71%

    08:12 am - Eurozone GDP Beats Estimates

    • European sovereign debt is trading lower this morning on the one-year anniversary of the beginning of the German bund yield's move from 0.05% to 1.05%. Eurozone GDP data surprised on the upside although the earlier release has some economists concerned that the report may be revised down. Another fly in the ointment is that the eurozone CPI missed expectations in April. Nevertheless, the better growth figures should keep the European Central Bank from further monetary easing for the time being and the single currency is up 0.49% to $1.1408, 57 pips below a six-month high
    • The eurozone's GDP grew at a 0.6% annualized rate for Q1 2016, better than economists had expected. Q4 2015 growth was 0.3%
      • Eurostat, the outfit that publishes the data, is now releasing the GDP number 15 days earlier than it has in the past. That makes the 0.6% figure more prone to revision and some analysts are saying that activity surveys suggest the growth rate will be revised down
      • French economic growth beat expectations at 0.5% for Q1, and Spain continued to power on at 0.8%
    • The eurozone's consumer price index fell 0.2% y/y in April, lower than both expectations and the March reading of no change
    • Eurozone unemployment unexpectedly declined to 10.2% in March, the lowest rate since August 2011. Economists had forecast no change from February's 10.3%
      • Italian unemployment unexpectedly fell to 11.4% in March from 11.6% in February
      • The 10.2% figure masks huge disparities across the eurozone. Apart from Spain (20.4%) and Greece (24.4%), the next worst country in the euro area is Portugal (12.1%). Germany is the best performer in the single currency bloc at 4.2% 
    • German retail sales fell 1.1% from February to March, far worse than expectations and a deterioration from the 0.4% m/m drop in February
    • U.K. mortgage approvals fell to a four-month low of 71,400 in March, down from 73,900 in February. The catch-all excuse of Brexit uncertainty has been cited as a factor along with the upcoming implementation of a new stamp duty on buy-to-let purchases. The theory goes that homebuyers bought earlier in the year to avoid paying the tax
    • Yield Check:
      • France, 10-yr OAT: +5 bps to 0.64%
      • Germany, 10-yr Bund: +1 bp to 0.27%
      • Greece, 10-yr note: -29 bps to 8.48%
      • Italy, 10-yr BTP: +3 bps to 1.50%
      • Portugal, 10-yr PGB: +7 bps to 3.06%
      • Spain, 10-yr ODE: +2 bps to 1.61%
      • U.K., 10-yr Gilt: unch at 1.61%

    07:04 am - Treasuries Slip as Yen Surges Again

    • U.S. Treasuries are losing some ground this morning as the Japanese yen trades to an 18-month high (USD/JPY: -0.99% to 107.05) and eurozone GDP data surprises on the upside. The rally in the yen has sent the U.S. Dollar Index to an 8-month low (-0.44% to 93.35) and gold close to a two-year high (+1.26% to $1,282.3/troy oz.). WTI crude is up 0.96% to $46.47/bbl. and the S&P 500 is indicated to open virtually unchanged at 2,075.6. Today's session features personal income and spending data 
    • Yield Check:
      • 2-yr: unch at 0.79%
      • 5-yr: +1 bp to 1.30%
      • 10-yr: +1 bp to 1.84%
      • 30-yr: +2 bps to 2.70%
    • International News:
      • The eurozone's GDP grew at a 0.6% annualized rate for Q1 2016, better than economists had expected. Q4 2015 growth was 0.3%
        • The French economy beat expectations at 0.5% growth for Q1, and Spain continued to power on at 0.8%
      • The eurozone's consumer price index fell 0.2% y/y in April, lower than both expectations and the March reading of no change
      • Eurozone unemployment unexpectedly declined to 10.2% in March, the lowest rate since August 2011. Economists had forecast no change from February's 10.3%
        • Italian unemployment unexpectedly fell to 11.4% in March from 11.6% in February
      • German retail sales fell 1.1% from February to March, far worse than expectations and a deterioration from the 0.4% m/m drop in February
      • U.K. mortgage approvals fell to a four-month low of 71,400 in March, down from 73,900 in February. The catch-all excuse of Brexit uncertainty has been cited as a factor along with the upcoming implementation of a new stamp duty on buy-to-let purchases. The theory goes that homebuyers bought earlier in the year to avoid paying the tax
      • Russia's central bank kept its main policy rate on hold at 11% and said that it would resume gradual loosening of policy if inflation settles down
      • In New Zealand, the ANZ Business Confidence Index rose three points to 6.2 in April
        • Building permits in New Zealand plunged by 9.8% m/m, the largest decline since September 2014, after seeing 10.3% growth in February
      • Australia's producer price index unexpectedly fell 0.2% q/q in the first quarter after rising 0.3% in Q4 2015
    • Data out Today:
      • Q1 Employment Cost Index (08:30 ET)
      • March PCE Prices (08:30 ET)
      • March Personal Income and Spending (08:30 ET)
      • April Chicago PMI (09:45 ET)
      • April Michigan Sentiment -- Final (10:00 ET)
    • Fed Speakers:
      • Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-FOMC voter) "Prospects for the American Economy" (06:30 ET)

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