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Charles Wheelan, Ph.D. The Naked Economist

Charles Wheelan, Ph.D., The Naked Economist

Shooting Ourselves in the Economy

by Charles Wheelan, Ph.D.

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Posted on Tuesday, November 27, 2007, 12:00AM

I was struck recently by a New York Times article on the devastating impact of economic sanctions on Gaza. Since Hamas came to power in Gaza and refused to renounce violence, Israel has sharply limited what can go in and out of the territory, leaving Gaza "almost entirely shut off from normal trade and travel with the world."

That makes sense. One way to punish nations that violate international norms is to isolate them from the global economy. These rogue actors can't buy the best of what the rest of the world has to offer, nor can they earn income by selling their goods abroad.

How Sanctions Work

That's what we're trying to do in Iran. The United Nations has imposed two rounds of increasingly harsh economic sanctions on that country for not suspending its clandestine nuclear program. The United States is encouraging countries like Russia, China, and Germany to get even tougher.

And history buffs will recall that during the Civil War, a crucial part of the North's strategy was imposing a naval blockade on the South, preventing the export of cotton to Europe in exchange for manufactured goods.

Sanctions are a potent weapon because they can impose serious economic harm on the target country. Gaza has been enduring a "deep economic depression" since the economic blockade was imposed. The Christian Science Monitor reports that tougher sanctions on Iran "would hit the ruling mullahs hard by raising Iran's already high unemployment, and perhaps force trickle-up regime change."

A Self-Inflicted Embargo

So here's what I don't understand: Why do so many of our presidential candidates, and a surprising proportion of the American population, believe that we should impose trade sanctions on ourselves?

After all, if you believe that the United States should trade less with the world (or if you oppose the expansion of trade), then you're essentially calling for a self-imposed economic embargo -- sanctions on ourselves. If curtailing global trade is bad for Gaza and Iran, how could it possibly be good for us? The answer is that it's not.

Yes, I've made the pro-trade argument before. But reading about the effect of sanctions in Gaza -- the opposite of free trade -- made me see the issue in a new light. The best way to understand why expanded trade is good for the United States is to look at why cutting off trade is so devastating in a place like Gaza.

Hitting Where It Hurts

What happens when a country is on the receiving end of a trade embargo?

1. New jobs are created as the result of "import substitution."

Some people obviously go to work producing the goods and services that no longer come from the rest of the world, so-called import substitution. Of course, these new goods and services are likely to be more expensive or of lower quality than what was available before -- or else no one would've been buying the imports in the first place.

2. Jobs are destroyed in the export sector.

There can't be too many export-related jobs if there are no exports. The less obvious point is that export industries tend to be where a nation is most efficient relative to the rest of the world -- or else the rest of the world wouldn't have been buying those goods.

3. Jobs are lost in domestic industries that depend on imported inputs or capital equipment.

This is a more subtle point; a domestic firm making products exclusively for the domestic market could actually be devastated by a trade embargo if it uses commodities or machinery or chemicals that come from abroad. As the New York Times describes Gaza: "One result has been the quick collapse of Gaza's private sector, unable to import necessary spare parts or building supplies or cloth."

4. Jobs are lost because the average person has less money in his pocket.

If consumers have to pay more for goods that were previously imported, then they have less to spend everywhere else. That hits restaurants, retailers, services, and other businesses that would appear to have no exposure to trade on the surface.

Tricks of the Trade

To summarize, restricting trade creates jobs in industries where a nation is not productive relative to the world; it kills jobs in industries that are globally competitive. Consumers pay more for basic goods, leaving them with less purchasing power for other goods and services (which kills still more jobs).

In short, cutting off trade leaves a country poorer and less productive -- which is why we tend to do it to our enemies.

Expanding trade does the opposite. It destroys jobs in industries where consumers would prefer to buy imports. That's an unpleasant process, but if you believe in capitalism, that's pretty much how it works. Meanwhile, trade creates jobs in sectors where we do things better or cheaper than the rest of the world. The whole process puts more money in the pockets of a typical consumer, raising our standard of living.

Unintentional Punishment

Thus, I support economic sanctions on Iran and Gaza. I don't support economic sanctions on the United States.

In fact, that suggests a question for the protectionist candidates seeking the presidential nomination in both political parties: "Could you please explain why your plan for helping the American middle class is essentially the same policy that you're advocating to punish Iran for building nuclear weapons?"

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178 Comments

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  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, June 6, 2008, 10:17PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    AHHHH!! There ya go...394 point drop in the NYSE. Hmmm, lets see how much more we can get it to drop. That pathetic loser excuse of a president needs to go NOW!!!. BUSH BABY, you're gone!!

  • blazing-biz@sbcglobal.net - Monday, January 21, 2008, 5:07PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    The author is very selective in what he presents. First of all Israel is occupying Palestinian land and has engaged in ethnic clensing with the help of the US for over 60 years and somehow those who fight against that are "bad actors" in this guy opinion stated as fact. Also, no country in the world has more nuclear weapons than the US, so Iran can have as many as they can manufacturer and never get close to the nukes the US has so shut up about how the US has some right to tell Iran that it can't have nukes while giving India all the technology to build nukes in mass, again this guy states his half-truth based opinion as fact. Now to the point of trade, Global Trade is good FOR the WEALTHY - working class people do much better in an economy that is self-sufficient. With grow dependency on foreign manufacturing the US is simply over extending itself and making itself more vunerable to global turmoil. The US is relegating itself to being just a salesperson sevicer middleman for the world trade, being completely unnecessary and dependent on others for goods. That's ok for soft handed financiers and bankers, but steering the country in that vane is destructive for working people. A subtle misinformative bit in this guy's article is that cutting off the cheap labor and cheap product trade from other countries you force the US to improve and invest in it's own labor force thus bringing up it's working class. What this guy is promoting is the build up of foreign cheap labor pools at the expense of our own native workers, he almost gives it away with his "ah shucks, if we cut off cheap imports we'd be forced to train and pay our labor pools here in the US - we don't want that, do we?!" The fact that a strong working class means a weakened wealth class is the under tone of this article - keep the fat cats sitting at home enjoying their cheap imported goods as the working folks grovel for scraps, just like a a wealth spokesman wants it. Bankers love that, becuase as wages are surpressed it creates more need for credit - oh I just summed up the current economic crisis in the US in one sentence, better stop before the wealthy get upset. Vote for equality and labor rights, I believe John Edwards represents this the best. Listen and read his material, ignore all the hair cut tabloid bull - he is really standing for real reform. th wealthy have been selling out this country for some time now, only mass numbers of working class people will put a stop to it, if we get involved.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, January 13, 2008, 10:15PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    A great way to explain the detriments of isolating. It is a shame that Americans are getting far too fearful and are allowing themselves to fall for failed ideologies. I can only hope that our presidential candidates are listening.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, January 10, 2008, 10:04AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    I keep looking and hoping but I haven't seen a single comment from any economist regarding the epidemic we are experiencing in this country of just plain old foolish and ignorant mismanagement of money by the working people. Everyone, right down to the minimum wage worker, seems to have this obsession to make others think they are one of the wealthy.

  • john - Sunday, December 30, 2007, 8:23AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    You're blinded by ideology. The reality is that liberalized trade with less wealthy countries has been used as a club to keep wages in the US down. The effect has been an erosion of the middle class. Also, the Stolper-Samuelson theorem has been used to show how this effect happens. Opening up trade tends to harm the wages of lower-skilled workers. So, logically, public policy should attempt to re-skill these workers, so the might benefit from more open trade. What really happened was, as trade opened up in the 80s and 90s, we cut back worker training, raised school fees, and generally shrank the social welfare system. The upshot was that the low-skilled remained so, and the economy adapted by creating a lot of low-skill, low-wage jobs that have seen their wages drop.

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