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Anya Kamenetz Generation Debt

Anya Kamenetz, Generation Debt

A Down Market Has Its Upsides for Young People

by Anya Kamenetz

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Posted on Tuesday, February 12, 2008, 12:00AM

Sometimes what seems like bad news can be turned into good.

All the recent talk about the faltering economy certainly seems to fall into the bad-news category. Housing prices had the biggest decline ever, the U.S. and international stock markets had some very dark days, 17,000 U.S. jobs unexpectedly "disappeared," and many experts feel that we're heading into a recession.

But there's reason for young people to look on the bright side. In fact, beginning your financial life during an economic correction or downturn can be a preferable thing in many ways. Here are a few of the positives:

1.) We won't expect to get rich quick.

Economic dramas shape an entire generation's beliefs about the nature of the economy and the risks involved. Just ask your grandmother, who experienced the Depression and is probably still saving rubber bands.

If you're in your 20s or early 30s, your living memory consists of a nearly unprecedented runup in stock market values -- the tech bubble of the 1990s. Bubbles by definition get people excited about making lots of money, fast. Thanks to the Internet, millions of people were able for the first time to pick, follow, and trade stocks for themselves. Unfortunately, the common outcome could be summed up by the title of film critic David Denby's book: "American Sucker." An affluent, well-connected New Yorker with ties to top stock analysts, Denby lost over one million dollars gambling on tech stocks.

Investors like Denby, who try to get rich quick by picking individual stocks, exemplify what is known in the investment world as "dumb money."

It's nearly impossible for you and me to beat the market consistently. And commissions, as well as trading and research costs, tend to eat up your returns if you try. It's a great lesson to learn by example -- not by experience.

You can also learn some lessons from the downturn of the housing market. In the past decade, it became much more common for first-time homebuyers to borrow big and hope to flip within a few years for huge appreciation -- 50 percent and up. But if you buy a house these days, you'd better love that city and that neighborhood, not buy more than you can afford, and be prepared to hold onto it for a long, long time.

2.) We'll get real about consumption.

Think about this: Consumer spending increased every year for the past 16 years. That's the longest buying binge Americans have ever gone on.

This spending increase was largely fueled by the runup in house prices, which allowed home-owning Americans to borrow against the cost of their homes. Consumer credit also expanded markedly over the past decade and a half.

For those of us in our 20s, this may mean that our parents borrowed against their home to send us to college or to pay for vacations or other luxuries while we were growing up. It also means that credit cards have always been there to fill the gap when we wanted a pair of shoes or a restaurant meal. Young people have been spending 16 percent more than they earn in recent years -- not a sustainable situation.

Well, now the credit market is tightening. As long as house prices are falling, not rising, home-equity loans will be harder to get. And in the general atmosphere of a recession, out-of-control spending tends to slow down as everybody tightens their belts. For example, this past holiday shopping season was the weakest in five years.

But did it really hurt your celebration with friends and family if the presents were a little less lavish?

3.) We'll buy on the cheap.

The current scary economic environment should not cause you to stuff your money under a mattress. The stock market may not be the best way to make a fast buck, but it is still the best long-term investment for your money; market returns average 7 percent to 10 percent over the long term (although your mileage may vary based on investment costs.)

And the "long term" means decades, not a few years.

Even with the recession in 2001-02, stock prices never really corrected to historical norms, which means they may still have a ways to fall. According to David Leonhardt of "The New York Times," the stock market is currently "overvalued"  by 10 percent, relative to historical norms. And in a recession, the  market sometimes plunges more than it should because of the mood of the investors, rather than because of underlying economic indicators.

That's bad news for people who are retiring now or in the near future. Your grandfather might have had a million dollars if he cashed out last year, and only $800,000 today. But it's good news for the average 25-year-old. You have most of your stock-buying ahead of you. You'll ideally be putting 10 percent to 15 percent of your salary each year into a retirement savings account that's invested in stocks. If stock prices go from "overvalued" to "undervalued", you're essentially buying in at a discount -- and you have plenty of time to see your investments appreciate.

As for the housing market, some are predicting prices will sink 25 percent to 30 percent in the next few years. At best, prices could remain flat while they catch up with rents. (Before the bubble, the monthly costs to rent a home were roughly comparable with the monthly costs to carry a mortgage. These days, in New York City at least, the same apartment that rents for $2,500 may sell for $650,000 -- $3,800 a month after a 10 percent down payment.)

So my advice (which I'm following myself) to would-be homebuyers is to watch and wait and keep your eye out for a bargain. Make a lowball offer and, again, you'll leave plenty of room for appreciation.

The next few years are going to be a real economic education for us all. In my next column, I'll talk about the two cardinal rules for the cautious slowdown investor: hold down costs and diversify.

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  • MonamiS - Monday, February 18, 2008, 2:52PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    These Yahoo finance editorials typically suck, and this one isn't great but at least it is better than most because it makes a very valid point. A market like this IS what you want when you're young. Personally I think the market is still going to fall considerably further but that is not the point. The point is you want these bad bear markets when you're younger so you can put the money to work and have it build up faster. Our generation has yet to see any real economic downturn. The 1990s were the most properous period in our nation's history. The tech bubble saw a lot of money lost, but it was heavily contained in one sector and a relatively new sector. It was also largely paper losses, the bubble didn't build up long enough for the cash to really seep through society and make people dependant on it. The layoffs also largely effected young people. Many people I knew who had graduated around then lost their jobs or couldn't find jobs, but they were young and flexible and have all eventually come back. The dot-com bust was not a serious economic problem. If we do enter a serious economic downturn which right now looks very possible, it will be the first time our generation experiences a very tough market both in securities and in many jobs. Its best to be prudent. I make a decent salary in the low 6-figures, most of my friends don't. I don't live in NYC, LA, or SF where 6-figure salaries are the norm for 20-somethings. But somehow my friends who earn much less than me buy much nicer things than me. They buy all types of expensive clothes, cars, they go to Vegas and gamble hundreds or thousands of dollars. I think it is crazy. They have no real net worth so to speak of. This is exactly what is causing the problems we see now, people living beyond their means. Some people think if they make $100K per year it means they should be able to spend $100K, or even $90K - no you should be saving at least $25K minimum after taxes and after retirement accounts. That means you should only be living on half of your salary - this is the only way to build up a decent net worth.

  • Lizzi - Sunday, February 17, 2008, 9:35PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    1) Expecting to get rich seems to be part of being young (until the real world beats you down). Although, I couldn't help but laugh at the high school senior that sat next to me on an airplane, about a year ago, telling me how rich he was going to be by becoming a real estate agent after high school. 2) Get real about consumption...hmmm...have you met anyone our age or younger? Even people I know can't afford it buy high end clothes, go out to party when they want, etc. (Not saying I'm exempt - I just have different priorities). I don't think a little recession will help, other than to throw them into bankruptcy more quickly. I know if my job's goes away right now I'll be there too. If my company lays off, my property value plummets, the whole industry likely is no longer hiring, and making regular mortgage and vehicle payments off of savings would be rough. In addition, rental property would be harder to fill with tenents that reliably pay rent...so that would be another set of payments I'd have to subsidize. Young people just haven't had time to make the buffer that they would need to ride out a recession well and many don't have a spouse yet to help them float through rough times (good thing most of them have mommies and daddies to fall back on...good luck for the rest of us). 3) The answer is to always buy low. Not just for young people. And buying low and holding down costs during bad times can be competing goals. Right now I'm into the hold onto current assets and cross my fingers mode (selling low like some of my friends/family are trying to do doesn't help their long term situation and contributes further to the decline of real estate values).

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, February 17, 2008, 7:40PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    I think the post about buying derivitives and then talks about Warren Buffet is hillarious. Warren Buffet does not use derivatives because he says he doesn't understand alot of them. This article is merely encouraging young people to start saving for retirement and pointing out that a stock market in a correction is a good opportunity to find bargains.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, February 17, 2008, 2:14AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    What really made me want to read this article was the criticism posted on other review boards. Honestly, this article is pretty unbiased with respect to the so-called finance related technical jargon that can be daunting for people lacking even basic knowledge when it comes to finance, economics or accounting. Infact a good article in my opinion would be something a lay man with no prior knowledge can not only understand but relate to and perhaps follow the examples given, out in the future. What intrigued me about this article is despite she not having half the degrees or experience of the so-called top notch wallstreet biggies her advice is 'elementary'. Few wise folks come to mind..Warren Buffet, Albert Einstein. Something they both maintain constantly:'keep things simple,' invest in something you see you can hold on to for the next 10 yrs, don't think of making quick bets that could make you rich, rather think how you could capitalize in the short term to yield returns in the long term. Now that makes sense. I was at wallstreet in 2001(infact graduated that yr!) and yes I have seen the yahoos at $8 bucks and the JP morgans at $25. boy do i regret not taking it seriously! Yes! But well just out of school in my first job did i really have that kind of liquidity.no! But today I see a similar pattern.if we get into a company like citi today...i know its not going to make us rich in the next 2 perhaps 3 yrs..hell 5-10 yrs down the lane I can expect something more than what it is trading at to tell you the truth. Forget the research reports, forget the analyst rating crap, READ THE NEWS! Not from one source tho. Multiple. Get started with some honest paper trades to get a feel. to pick co. s well play against the market sentiment. Why do I say play against the market? Well going by the famous saying..." Buy when there is blood on the street...." P.S. Co-incidentally the world's most successful investor is buying. We cannot perhaps buy on that kind of level but what we can do it follow a similar school of thought. Honestly, the concept of 'deep value investing'. Things that are cheap and can appreciate Fm 01 to today what I did notice is that today is when there is more negative sentiment in the market than anytime else in the last 7 yrs. Looking for value out in the future? Some very boring stocks out there let me tell you. But it's better to fetch that 2-4% div. annually and see little movement than investments with a high risk-reward ratio. I don't believe that every stock out there can be a google & neither does anyone else but think closely...are people still going to drink pepsi 10 yrs down the lane? what else is 2/3rds of the population demanding for the next 10 yrs? When was the last time pepsi or coke for that matter got beat up? Look at it closely for opportunities.Co.s gathered momentum rather quickly and appreciated gradually and corrected once in a while etc. net result in the long run they have just appreciated. No book can teach anyone successful investing. Common sense can!! Without writing a book here, the concept of debt just makes me chuckle. We as individuals are so hell bent upon splurging! I'm sure many of us have probably already spent or are making those plans of how they are going to spend the XTRA $600-$1200 this year on 'wants' and perhaps not 'needs'. it is good to be liquid. Infact feels marvellous to be liquid. And its not that we get a 20K raise but its all about how disciplined we are with respect to having some saving some reserve etc. Save 500-1000 whatever the amount and try not to touch it. Keep doing tht regularly, & in 10-20 yrs you will be surprised how much good u've done. Perhaps you wont be asking for an 80% of the loan amount on your home. (Who knows it could just the amount 50%!) Not to forget, God Willing all us folks 10-20 years down the lane will be making more than what we are and worst case scenario the same amount. Point is you may not be in debt at the time you R 2 old 2 work!

  • johnk - Saturday, February 16, 2008, 8:20PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Very insightful and encouraging since I'm younger of course.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Saturday, February 16, 2008, 2:13PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Be very careful. Unless we enter into a Zimbabwe type hyper-inflationary environment, your could be taking a big risk here in buying stocks.

  • Juan Carlos - Saturday, February 16, 2008, 9:45AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Great advice at a time when nervousness is around. This is a great time to start building a portfolio, buying at cheap prices. Of course, the market can still go down, but she is not suggesting (as other mentioned in comments) that you blindly buy any stock...no! you still need to do your homework, as always, and chose those investments that pass the test. There are great mutual funds out there managed by talented people, that even made money during the last bear market. Another comment, I read here people saying that if you are near or at retirement you should have 0% in stocks...that's just wrong in my opinion. Obviously your main exposure should be toward income investments, but that doesn't mean that you have to completely alienate yourself from stocks. Don't you think that near retirement is precisely when you have accumulated tons of expertise investing? Why would you decide to completely stop at this point? re-balance, make your portfolio conservative, but always maintain some exposure to stocks.

  • JohnK - Friday, February 15, 2008, 9:36PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Another stupid article from this dumb writer.

  • VIRGIL - Friday, February 15, 2008, 8:42PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    While, the article has its points, I do not fully agree with the contents. Stock trading has its risks but, mutual funds are even riskier. Most 401K's have mutual funds exclusively in them and you are unable to protect your mutual funds in major corrections. Educate yourself in investing and use the gamut of investment vehicles like options, ETFs etc. to generate income and limit any losses. Most people are not aware or taken the time to educate themselves in the financial markets yet, are investing. That is a big mistake!

  • Love2Fly - Friday, February 15, 2008, 5:26PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    I disagree in a couple of points: 1) If you're a grandpa and close to retiring, you should have all your 401k/IRA in bonds and 0% in stock, so the market is of no concern and 2) why live in NYC?; I lived there during HS and College and hated it once I went to the work force. You have to pay city tax, state tax, 8.25% sales tax and most real states are old and way overpriced, plus it's so crowded and notorious for traffic gridlocks on sunny days, now image when it snows. WHY LIVE THERE!!!??

  • ALEX - Friday, February 15, 2008, 2:32PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Nice body of words here. Kudos on the pulitzer nomination.

  • It&#39;s too easy for RS - Friday, February 15, 2008, 12:54PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Not bad, but I disagree on simply waiting for a bargain. Unless you live in Miami, Vegas, Phoenix, or DC, you will NOT see the suggested 25-30% declines in housing prices. In fact, while lending standards have certainly tightened thanks to this credit mess, new mortgage loan applications are at their highest levels in almost 4 years. Thanks to lower rates and high housing inventory, buyers are striking now. If you want to just "wait" for a bargain to come around in Manhattan, you will be renting for the rest of your life. Plus, you do not have to love the city or neighborhood, you just have to be smart with what and where you buy. If there is too much condo supply, do not buy a condo. If a city is losing jobs, don't move and buy in a city like Detroit. It's all about doing research and making good choices.

  • J - Friday, February 15, 2008, 12:21AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Hi, I am an investment banking analyst. I applaud any article that promotes financial awareness. However, do not blindly put your money into stocks expecting them to go up, even over the long term. What if you want to retire in the middle of an economic depression? You could lose 50% or more of your nest egg over a few bad years. I suggest reading incessantly about personal finance.

  • Mark - Thursday, February 14, 2008, 8:18PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    not very insightful,but then how old is she? she probably has no home of her own,and she's probably has to many credit cards. I always laugh at the realtor giving advise and showing homes, while in the mean time, they rent.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, February 14, 2008, 4:59PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Very good solid advice for a young person, actually anyone. One thing of note, though. A grandmother collecting rubber bands secondary to her early life in the "Great Depression." If someone's grandmother was 18 in 1929, she would be 97 today. We are having more and more people live to 100, but the argument/statement about grandchildren appreciatiating what their grandparents went through is becoming more and more uncommon. Today's youth hear/see more about "Sweet-sixteen Parties" that cost more than $100K, and this is what they often base their ideals on. The "Depression Era" applies more to "Baby Boomers." Very good article, and keep up the good work. As armchair quarterbacks we will continue to pontificate. The view is a lot easier from the cheap seats.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, February 14, 2008, 1:18PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    The article hits on valid points of youth being able to wade through rough economic waters, but it isn't very realistic in its approach to addressing what the young generation will and should do. Curb consumption? Get real. This is the new cell phone every 3 months generation, they have iPods, iPhones, and iJunk coming out of their ears. Got have the gadgets for YouTube fame and instacommunication. They watched their parents struggle to 'keep up with the Joneses' and they'll continue to do the same things. And no mention of dumping as much as possible into your 401(k) to take advantage of cheap stock prices? Do you think any of them are planning on saving or investing the tax rebate? Well, at least their parents are paying their student loans. That'll toughen these youngsters up alright.

  • chris - Thursday, February 14, 2008, 11:42AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Thanks Anya for describing the value in declining housing assets especially for those who don't own now. I would add that every asset has an appreciation history that needs to be considered. The timing of any investment can create unexpected short term losses or gains, that should be compared to the longer term trend. This will give the investor a perspective on future value regardless of the short term gain or loss.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, February 14, 2008, 8:45AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    This is a good article that finds the silver lining in tough times. More importantly than making specific investment advice, this article reminds us all of the paradigm shift that has occured that the world we grew up with was a-typical, and that we should be conservative with our spending, dilegent with our investing, and patient with our expectations. I had an ironic reflection on some of the commenters of the article who indicated that it was "a waste of their time". It is truly strange that these time contrained individuals not only finished the entire article but then took the time to rate it and leave a comment. I hope their comments made them feel better on some level.

  • suavamente - Thursday, February 14, 2008, 1:21AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I just don't get how you included an already affluent New Yorker, who has well-known connections to top stockbrokers and lost over a million dollars in tech stocks. Doesn't sound like he's suffering and that doesn't make me want to get his book.

  • kandarpa - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 10:46PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    thank you for giving us the valuble suggestion

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 10:26PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    More of the same, financial advice from broke people. Blah.....blah....blah..........

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 9:49PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Funny how on Dec 4, you were writing about how traveling is such an important part of a 20 something's life. You were writing about traveling cheap but some of your ideas weren't exactly cheap. Now today, you suggest people cut back on spending...This "lesson" is the same lesson people older than 29 have been through numerous times. The stock and housing market are down so now the sky is falling. In six months if the stock market comes back and a year when housing starts rising or whenever that happens, you'll be writing about having it all again. Maybe your best advice is to stay grounded all the time. Having a house and nice vacations isn't a right for people in their 20's. Their focus should be on doing well in college, working hard at their first job and paying off loans or putting money away. Not going on vacations and over-extending themselves with a mortgage because they can't do without.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 9:12PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    the market is overvalued by 10%? just 8 months ago i read on yahoo finance that it was undervalued by 15%-25%. which is it? and who in the world these days makes enough to afford 15% of their salary to be skimmed off the top for the ira?bullshiite i say. that is why we have to make sure our next prez protects social security, so we dont have to worry about what happens on Fall St. as for the poor old fella who lost 200grand off his million, better luck next time. live by the sword, die by the sword.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 6:57PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Good points for young investors.

  • Dwald16 - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 5:55PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    While I agree that the housing bubble has completely burst and that SOME properties will continue to fall in price, I think the advice given to potential home buyers is a bit too general. For example, where I live the monthly payments on a mortgage for a luxury condo is, in some cases LOWER than what you'd be paying for a "decent" apartment right next door. I think that the advice given applies to most re-sale properties but is not necessarily accurate when dealing with new construction. There are a lot of developers out there that finished construction just as the market turned. Those developers won't be able to hold out much longer which means that most are at or near rock bottom prices. There are some incredible deals available RIGHT NOW that won't be around much longer because the developers simply can't afford to keep carrying all their inventory. I guess my point is, waiting may end up saving you a few grand, but if you're paying rent while you wait are you really doing much better than if you bought now from a developer that can't go much lower and might not be around in 6-12 months? Food for thought...

  • Alex - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 5:06PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    I do not see what is wrong with this article. The author makes two points: #1: A bursting bubble resets expectations to a more realistic level #2: A dramatic dip in the overall market generally benefits long term investors who are just beginning to accumulate securities. Regarding #1: Does anyone REALLY disagree that American youth could have a skewed vision of investing after the boom of the 1990's? Didn't think so... Regarding #2: While it is true that some companies have never regained the levels of market capitalization achieved during the tech bubble, the overall market recovered. Those who invested in index funds have seen their portfolios recover. A few extra points: If you don't see a problem with an apartment that rents for $2,500 a month selling for the equivalent of $3,800 a month then I suggest you go ahead and put your money where your mouth is... And for those individuals who complain that people in their twenties cannot afford to invest 10% of their income for the long term I say "get real". I am 27 and live in Seattle (not the most expensive city but not the cheapest). Working in a restaurant I am able to pay all bills, including student loans, as well as invest for retirement. Many of my friends do not invest, but they CHOOSE to spend their discretionary income on beer, dates, and iPhones. Before you tell me that you cannot afford to invest, let me examine the purchases that you are making. $100 says that you are lying to yourself...

  • Aaron - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 5:05PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Good article, but for the first time I feel old at 33. Thanks Anya.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 5:01PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    I graduated from college during 2003, and I can attest that everything that Anya has wrote in this article is true. I am a lot more financially shrewd than most people. This is a result of the recession at the time. I looked at my small income, at the time, and was forced to budget accordingly. I love you Anya! ;-) -Rooting for Microsoft to buy Yahoo!!!

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 4:48PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    DOOM DAY IS HERE. Please, these are the same columnists that predicted exactly the opposite a year ago. Completely, useless. Use common sense and stay away from these types of articles, and you will be fine.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, February 13, 2008, 4:45PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    really like the housing advise

Showing comments 6-35 of 111<< PreviousNext >>

More from Anya Kamenetz

Read the Generation Debt Book

According to economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Generation Debt offers "a truly gripping account of how young Americans are being ground down by low wages, high taxes, huge student loans, sky-high housing prices, not to mention the impending retirement of their baby boomer parents." Generation Debt will inspire you to take charge of your financial future.

Read more from Anya Kamenetz here and here.

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