Laura Rowley Money & Happiness

Want your child to succeed? It may be a matter of choosing the right state. And it doesn't hurt to be rich.

That's the finding of the Chance-for-Success Index, a new research study produced by Education Week magazine and financed by the Pew Foundation Center on the States. The study examined 13 indicators that influence a child's opportunity for advancement at three life stages: early foundation; kindergarten through grade 12; and adult.

From Top to Bottom

"The idea behind the index was to get a sense of what a child's chances for success are across the whole continuum," explains project editor Lynn Olson. "We wanted to capture what would happen if you dropped a newborn into state A versus state B, and build an empirical picture around that. What difference would it make in their life prospects?"

The answer is -- huge. A child's chance for success was rated highest in Virginia, Connecticut, Minnesota, and New Jersey, which scored in a range of 19 to 22 points. At the bottom of the list: New Mexico, Arizona, Louisiana, and Texas, which scored from -23 to -15.

"The thing that struck us was the huge difference across states," Olson says. "From the highest to lowest performer there was a 45-point difference."

Researchers considered such factors as parents' employment status, family income, parents' fluency in English, preschool participation, reading performance in fourth grade, math performance in eighth grade, and high school graduation rates.

The study also examined the percentage of adults with a postgraduate degree, as well as how many earned the median wage and worked full-time and year-round. (The data were derived from the American Community Survey conducted by the Census Bureau.)

Money and Learning Gaps

State investment in education is part of the story, but not surprisingly, household wealth plays a key role. Among the 100 highest-income counties in the United States ranked by median household income, Virginia holds 15 spots, New Jersey 8, Minnesota 5, and Connecticut 3, according to the 2000 Census. Arizona and Louisiana have no counties ranking in the top 100.

"In Connecticut, you have an affluent population and better economy in general, so the children are advantaged," says Olson. "The research tells us that children who live below the poverty level start out at a disadvantage; there are fewer quality preschools; they attend schools with fewer resources; there are fewer resources outside the home; and less access to postsecondary education and training."

Research has also found that children who attend high-quality early-childhood education programs are less likely to drop out of school, repeat grades, or require special education. Yet fewer than half of all three- and four-year-olds in the United States are enrolled in preschool.

Again, money plays a role. The likelihood that a child will attend preschool is strongly tied to family income: About 40 percent of children in households earning the median income of roughly $50,000 attended preschool, compared to 55 percent in households earning $100,000, and nearly 70 percent in families with incomes over $150,000.

A Socioeconomic Catch-22

The researchers report that early learning gaps tend to persist throughout elementary and high school. By the end of high school, seniors from low-income families read on a par with middle school students from more affluent families.

Families can get stuck in a vicious cycle: It takes money to give your child a superior education, and it takes a superior education for your child to make money.

"What we're seeing is, increasingly, success is tied to education," says Olson. "Jobs that used to be available to those with a high school diploma are either disappearing entirely because of technology or being off-shored, and that's creeping all the way up the educational ladder."

A State of Disparity

Along with the total score for each state, the Chance-for-Success report breaks out how state residents do at a particular life stage, giving a snapshot of the strengths and weaknesses within a state's educational system.

For example, in Wyoming, children start above the national average in terms of family circumstances, and the state holds its own in K through 12 schooling. But it loses ground because of economic and workforce situations for adults.

In California, by contrast, many children come from families where both parents are not fluent in English, but the state gains ground in K through 12 and does fairly well in the adult stage because of its diverse economy.

"We know student achievement is related to family income and the parents' educational achievement, but schools can make a difference, and states have multiple opportunities to decide where to target their efforts," says Olson. "Our hope is that states will look across that whole continuum when they look at how best to develop the human capital in their state."

Falling Behind on a Global Scale

Meanwhile, the global picture only underscores how critical education has become to a child's success. While high school completion rates have been rising in other nations, they stagnated for much of the 1990s in the United States.

Currently, only about 7 in 10 high school students graduate with a diploma in four years. The United States now ranks 11th among 30 industrialized nations in the percentage of 25- to 34-year-olds with a high school credential, the study notes, and has dropped to 7th in the proportion of that group holding a college degree.

And while the educational attainment of younger generations is outstripping that of their elders in most other countries, that's not true in the United States, where the proportion of 25- to 34-year-olds who have at least an associate's degree is dead even with people 35 and older.

The Chance-for-Success Index brings into sharp focus some of the critical factors underlying the widening chasm between rich and poor in the United States. "I think one of the things you can see in this report is the great inequalities in this country -- and that they extend not just in families and communities but across the country," says Olson. "We see the repercussions all the way along."