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Suze Orman Money Matters

Suze Orman, Money Matters

In a Tough Economy, Timing Is Everything

by Suze Orman

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Posted on Monday, July 14, 2008, 12:00AM

Sharply falling stock market and home values have created an extremely treacherous period. It's in just this sort of tough economic environment that your future financial security is won or lost.

How you handle your money in these tough times is going to play a huge role in whether you reach your long-term financial goals. Unfortunately, I'm seeing far too many people focused on making moves that might bring some short-term relief without fully recognizing the long-term damage they're doing to their bottom line.

It's Too Early to Hibernate

The stock market has officially fallen into bear market territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sinking 20 percent below its October 2007 high. Watching your portfolio take a big hit probably has you seriously considering making a beeline for the nearest exit, but please slow down and think this through.

Emotionally, it makes perfect sense to want to bail on the stock market. But emotions are what keep individuals from making smart investing decisions. Look no further than the ever-growing cadre of behavioral economists who make a living by studying how we cheat ourselves with misguided money moves.

Heading into investing hibernation right now is one of those moves. I'm not predicting that the market has absolutely bottomed, but to bail out now puts you at odds with the immutable law of successful investing: Buy low, sell high.

Many Unhappy Returns

Selling now also plays right into the timing trap that's thwarted so many individual investors. We need to look no further than the data provided by Dalbar Inc., which takes a look at how fund investors have historically fared when compared to the performance of the S&P 500 stock index.

It's not a pretty picture. For the 20 years from 1987 through 2007, the S&P 500 gained an annualized 11.8 percent. The returns for investors in mutual funds over that period were just 4.4 percent.

What gives? Really bad market timing. In that period, individual investors had a knack for getting in and out of stocks at just the wrong time; if they'd just sat tight they would've pocketed more than twice -- actually close to three times -- the gains they actually earned.

History Rewards the Long-Term Investor

That brings us back to today. If you're a long-term investor -- that is, if you expect to leave your money invested for at least 10 years -- the evidence is pretty clear that sticking it out as a buy-and-hold investor is going to be your best (non-) move. That's especially true if you're investing via a 401(k).

Your money buys you more shares today -- given lower stock values -- than it would if you bought at higher valuations. Invest $250 per paycheck in your 401(k) in funds that have a share price of $25 and you get 10 shares. Invest when those shares fall to $20 and your $250 buys you 12.5 shares. Fast-forward 10 years and the shares that have bobbed both up and down but are now worth, say, $30. If you had 10 shares your account is worth $300. With 12.5 shares you have $375.

Of course, this assumes that over long periods of time the market gains more than it loses. That might be hard to imagine right now, but we all know that over time -- decades of history -- the stock market has a long-term bias to trend up, not down. Folding now makes no sense if you're investing for a long-term goal.

What are your alternatives anyway? Don't tell me the 3 percent or so you can get at the bank or the 4 percent in a Treasury bond is a good, safe investment. There's nothing safe about having money you need to grow earn a guaranteed rate of return that's well below the rate of inflation.

Homing in on Reality

The slide in home values is creating another "timing" issue for many individuals. In addition to the few million homeowners who are already in or close to foreclosure, some economists are now projecting that another 2 to 3 million could find themselves in serious trouble over the coming year or so if home values continue to falter and a weak economy causes unemployment rate to rise.

The typical response to being in mortgage stress is to pull out all the financial stops to stay in the home. That includes raiding retirement savings, running up huge credit card debt, and borrowing from any and every family member or friend to come up with the cash to cover their rising mortgage costs. Again, emotionally this makes perfect sense -- the desire to stay in homes we ostensibly "own" is profound. But if the only way you can afford your home is to ruin the rest of your financial life, what have you really achieved?

It's very sad to say, but I think many homeowners need to seriously consider "folding" if the reality is that they have no way of being able to afford the higher mortgage payments in the long term. In fact, the latest round of housing aid being discussed by Congress would limit federal assistance to homeowners who could afford the cost of a 30-year mortgage. That's Washington's line in the sand: Help will be limited only to those homeowners who are able to make a go of it at a real market rate.

Know When to Fold 'Em

It should be your litmus test, too. Run the numbers using this Yahoo! Finance calculator: Plug in 6 percent for the interest rate and 360 for the term of the loan (that's 360 months, which is the full term for a traditional 30-year mortgage: 30 years x 12 months=360.) Then take a look at that monthly mortgage amount. Can you afford it today, without running your savings dry and your credit cards into the stratosphere?

If the answer is no, then you need to look at the big picture. It makes little sense to throw good money (what savings you have) at a bad situation you know you can't afford long-term. As painful as it is to consider selling, or going through foreclosure now, it can be the smarter move than trying to "hold on" for another six months, or year, or two years, until you have no more money to raid.

There are no miracle bailouts on the way. If Congress does step up to the plate, it looks like any assistance at this point is going to be very limited. Nor should you cross your fingers that housing values seriously bounce back in the near term and give you enough equity to easily refinance. And with the economy struggling, the chance of getting a big raise doesn't seem too likely. The bottom line: Keep your retirement savings intact and put away that credit card. It's time to consider folding -- hopefully through a sale and not foreclosure -- so you can get your financial house back in order.

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  • Yahoo! Finance User - Monday, July 28, 2008, 12:42PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Thanks!

  • familyman05 - Friday, July 18, 2008, 2:01PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Right on Suze! Let your investments ride, and dump the house if you really can't afford it. If you were lucky enough to exit the market late last year then good for you, but that doesn't mean it makes sense for others to get out now ... in fact if I were you I'd consider myself very lucky and get back into the market ASAP!. In Feb 2000 I sold most of my non-retirement portfolio to put a down payment on a house ... within the next year those investments would have been worth less than half what they were when I sold ... I got lucky right? Actually, when I sold that house in 2004 the value of that down payment was less than my portfolio would have been ... so I would have better off finding a different source for the down-payment EVEN WITH the decline in the market in 2000. Unless your information really is better than anyone else's, timing the market just doesn't work ... and if your information is so good then you shouldn't be investing in Mutual Funds. Great column Suze, tell it like it is.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, July 18, 2008, 9:34AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    (Quote): "What are your alternatives anyway?" (unQuote). How about swapping your green toilet paper for gold and silver? With silver, a "swap" for your green toilet paper at the current price of under $20 per ounce is nearly guaranteed to retain the (current) value of the green toilet paper. In other words, you cannot lose. Especially when you consider that the banks are offering you NO BETTER, and the Stock Market IS THE BIGGER GAMBLE.

  • Flyer1 - Friday, July 18, 2008, 12:32AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    I think Suze Orman is great but in this case very wrong. I played the waiting game in 2001-2002 and got killed. I got out of this market in Dec 2007 when uncertainty was too big to ignore. If you aren't out by now then you are getting a lesson learned the hard way. Staying in the market may have been a good strategy between 1980 and 2000 but I think we may be entering a period of stagnation or a turn down. This is the second giant bear market in 8 years. This country needs to make fundamental changes. We need to get back to Capitalism and away from Monopolism, and price fixing, and criminals running corporations. The government needs to do its job and make sure corporations are playing fair and they need to stop lieing about inflation. We have let education, medicare, housing, gasoline, food prices and wealth imbalance run out of control to the point where socialism is looking pretty good. The working class is getting destroyed by high inflation and low wage increases. If this trend continues we will lag far behind Europe in standard of living, making it a more attractive place to live. A socialist country may be better than a Monopolistic one. The people running this country think we have to put up with this crap. Guess what, we can leave, just like our ancestors left their homeland. Once emmigration starts it will be difficult to stop.

  • P.K. - Thursday, July 17, 2008, 5:51PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    This article is good for the intended reader. She mentioned good points in an informative and entertaining way in an otherwise boring subject for most. Those who rate it 1 star and say "most people no that" have no credibility. Please don't post again.

  • MIKE - Thursday, July 17, 2008, 2:43AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Right on the stock market. Valuations are low; just shut your eyes and let it ride. A tougher call, but right on the home mortgage front; in some areas (as in our California central valley) the best course for some people is to just walk away. Not the most ethical of moves but many just screwed up and must get out or they will be behind the eight ball for many years. And if they don't, most will wind up filing bankruptcy eventually anyway (hurting even more lenders.)

  • tety - Thursday, July 17, 2008, 2:00AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Suze is like a trash paper novel, read it once and toss it in the can. Her advice about staying the course is a fools paradise. Her coaxing to abandon your home and get hit with a foreclosure in your name is a financial knife in your own stomach. Do me a favor turn off this clown when you see her face on national TV. She will take were you donot want to go even in your darkest hour.

  • DanF - Thursday, July 17, 2008, 1:29AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Didn't we forget about property taxes?

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 5:56PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Good information; questioned comparison between S&P 500 & Mutual Funds. I'm in 3 mutual funds, have lost $22,000 to date after taking out 500 per mo due to job loss .Financial Advisor says I am where I should be., recomends no changes in portfolio. No jobs at 64 yrs old. Not a long term investor; must use some money now. Any suggestions?; value of account now under $l00,000 ;, NOT earning enough interest to generate $500. Not able to earn the $500 which must have at this time .Any suggestions on investments, etc. Many thanks. Single and struggling.

  • Marty - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 4:51PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    She's right about one thing - most investors bail out of the market at the wrong time. They consistently buy when stock market sentiment is running high (market overvalued) and sell when sentiment is low (market undervalued). My mom got out of stocks in 1987 after a gut-wrenching loss of over 30% in one month! She never got back in. Since then, the market is up over 600% (sorry mom!). Don't let this happen to you.

  • Taurus454 - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 3:45PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    At least Suze and I have the same barber.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 2:59PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    The past posts hit the nail on the head about "overconsumption".......but that's what our President and the administration have advocated with our country's war in Iraq........Unlike other Presidents during WWII that asked Americans to "sacrafice" for that war effort.......no leadership has been shown from President Bush or the adminstration...just keep going to the malls and driving your SUV's !!!....................So until we can reign in our Federal Budget and hope for the "dollar" to rebound, all Americans are going to be feeling that pain!!........except of course for a few wealthy overcompensated CEO's

  • Steve - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 12:01PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    The previous post that said overconsumption is the problem is dead right! I get so sick of friends asking me what I'm doing with all the money I save. Because when i tell them I pay down my mortgage or invest they look at me like I'm an alien. My best friends can hardly relate to me. I try to explain why saving is important but they don't care. I feel like the ant among the grasshoppers. My attitude is I try my best NOT to be a consumer. I don't respond to trends, advertising and I don't shop for fun. Yes, I am a wet blanket. But I am going to be a wealthy wet blanket. And I really don't give a crap about money. What I DO care about is being able to always take care of my families needs now and forever; something far too many adults seem to forget is their responsibility (not the governments). I just don't get why so many people think the purpose of money is to make their dreams come true. Pretty superficial dreams if you ask me. What happened to dreams like seeing your kids suceed and owning your home (not the bank owning your home)? My best friend was broke. I told him to sell his wifes expenseive car and get a cheaper one. He said "but it was her dream car". She 26! Since when do we all expect to have our dreams fulfilled at 26! Grow up! Delay gratification! Save for crying out loud. And stop asking folks like me to foot the bill for your profligate lifestyle!

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 10:25AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Very very very basic advise (sic). Come on morons, it is advice not advise! This article conveniently ignores the basic problem in this country - overconsumption. We spend too much on too much crap, and when the sh-t hits the fan we have no room to maneuver. Most who are having trouble with their mortgages put themselves there. Stop whining, get back to work, and start really examining your values and consumption.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 9:52AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Gas price is up........, stock market is down............., home prices crashing............., food price skyrocketed............., can not get a loan anywhere........., unemployment is up........, income is down.............., can not afford to see a medical doctor............, rent is up.........., rich person is getting richer........., poor person is getting poorer............, savings from the working stiffs are used to pay the ill-gotten executive bonus.........., Oh, yes, timing is everything.................F-ck......

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 9:38AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Wow, I did not think it was that bad of advice. I think her point was that the stock market is already down huge and that pulling money out now does not really make sense for the long term investor if you have already rode it down this far. Real Estate that is going to drag you into financial ruins is not worth keeping. Sure if you can afford to keep it do so, but that was not her point. Also, if you have credit cards try to reduce the interest by moving them to lower interest credit cards. You can find some really great deals at a comparison site called www.CreditCardWave.com

  • Da Big Guy - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 9:17AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Obviously writing to the LCD! Suze and other journalists no what that is! This reader won't waste his time on her anymore.

  • USA P - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 3:20AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    This article doesn't really say anything other than whatever you do, don't sell, forget the home and credit card. Only in a dream world this advice would work; unemployment is rising, dollar is falling, the government is bankrupt, and the dreaded hyper-inflation is at our doorsteps. Meanwhile, Americans are taxed their eyeballs...it's unbelievable to me how much the American people can take abuse! However much I want to stay positive, the reality is the remaining capital in this country is in jeopardy. Ms Orman's advice is adequate if there were honest CEO's, accounting oversight, free markets, etc., but unfortunately this is not the case. Move your money out of Wall Street and paper assets, to commodities. Gold/silver is a good start. Watch for more bank failures...the fractional lending scemes over many decades by the illegal federal reserve is starting show it's true colors. Watch for monopolizing pirates provoke another war further straining our fragile economy. We are headed for rough times, like or not.

  • rugu - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 3:01AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Suze Randall says : Hold your stocks despite massive losses. She is absolutely wrong. If you lose 50% of your portfolio in this bear market, you need 110% to just get back even. There is no such thing as buy and hold, you will get killed when the markets drop hard and not to count the threshold of pain when it does. She is also advocating walking away from your mortgage. Another bad piece of advise from an idiotic writer. She forgets to mention a foreclosure will ruin your credit ratings and you will not be able to buy another home for 3-5 years when the market goes sky high and you are still renting a one bedroom apartment watching others making money. She is just full of bad advise all over. Read here and commit financial suicide, better still buy a nylon rope and a plastic stool at Home Depot and hang yourself in a $20 motel room

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, July 16, 2008, 1:08AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    First of all, staying the course is for losers. Look at all those dopes who stayed the course at the height of the tech bubble. What about people who stayed the course on Enron. Worldcom anyone? Theres not such thing as staying the course. That all planner talk for "keep your money with my firm." Look people, Suze and all these planners only talk about mutual funds. Mutual funds are retarted failed investments. Instead, they should be educating people about individual stock selection but guess what, they cant do that either. Every planner is a planner because they failed at picking stocks themselves. So stop listening to these losers. They all say the same stupid crap on all these nonsense articles every week. Its all the same nonsene. Let me tell you something. If everyone followed their advice of, "averaging down so you buy more shares of stupid mutual funds, or buy and hold an index fund, or dont market time, or dont panic, or this or that, dont you think there would be a lot of rich people in this world from mutual funds. The bottom line is that hardly anyone in america ever built wealth off mutual funds. They are a scam. After taxes and fees and inflation your left with bond like returns with stock like risk. Word of advice. Learn to pick your own stocks, learn about options, and learn about shorting stocks and setting up a proper portfolio that is always hedged. Learn about sitting in cash and having cash to deploy when bargains arise. Staying the course and staying fully invested at all times is the single worst advice out their. Rich people dont get rich by sitting like ducks and riding it out. They get rich by being in cash, and when things get so bad, they deploy their cash into undervalued investments and they concentrate their holdings. They dont buy some water downed S&P 500 fund in which 450 out of the 500 companies are worthless terrible investments!

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 9:38PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Well folks, the Dow topped out at 10,962.54, which is about 80 pts of where it was when Clinton left office. Now folks, considering we have seen the first bank go bust of this RECESSION (I still haven't heard Suze, Laura, or Anya even admit there is such a problem), and what will it take for those people (the 4/5 stars and their ilk) come to the realization, that the party is over. Will it be the fact that there are 90 other banks facing what IndyMac is facing now? Will it take another round of forclosures, especially in the Commercial Real Estate lines to make people wake up? Will it be the dollar be 2 to 1 against other foreign currencies? Or will it be the end of the run up on oil futures? One thing is certain, that Suze still doesn't get it. Her "Kenny Rogers" approach to mortgages is a joke. If anyone is that dumb enough, to buy a house in this current environment, where most lenders won't even give you half of what it takes to buy certain homes, in a market that is 3 years away from a bottoming out, you get what you ask for, which buying a home at this time...is like bending over in the middle of the freeway, and allowing a Mack Truck to hit you square in the posterior. One doesn't need Suze to have to tell you that (as this HAS BEEN old news since this time LAST YEAR...and in some areas...2 years ago!) I remember in Massachusetts seeing the Public Notices for Forclosures being 13-14 in one day's edition...2 years ago! I didn't need Suze to tell me this. Nor did I need Suze to tell me how we got ourselves into this mess. If you worked in Banking 5 years ago, and see how the banks pressed you to get loans/mortgages approved to people whose income was lousy and in some cases without jobs, you knew this LONG before Suze did (and she did this over the weekend on CNN...telling us now...what I knew 5 years ago). Basically put it is common sense. When Greed Kills (like a few people stated..) common sense in banking/mortgages goes out the window, and you create alot of risk, that allows a bunch of rich people who trade this risk, and get busted in return. This is deregulation and how it screws this country. The hurting is FAR from over folks, and the smart people are the one who get out quick before things go to heck quickly. If you are thinking of buying...wait, as the bottom isn't even here yet, and there are certain parts of this country, that have yet to have felt the problems of the subprime mortgage mess. You will know when the bottom comes, which is about the time when the stock markets are consistently going up, and when the economy is moving in the right direction.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 9:15PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I got out in October 07. I still track the old portfolio which is now down $52,000. I put the money in bonds which have earned a measley $12,600. This market will have to come back 15% to catch me. All investors should have an exit strategy. Stay the course is for losers.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 5:30PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    More simplistic advice after the fact. Not taking some profits and going to a safe haven is poor advice. What matters is when and how you do it. Who sits there when your house is burning? Why not take defensive action when you're getting hammered? Because these are "invest and hold" advisers which means you can never do better than average.

  • amy - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 4:38PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Negative thinkers get nowhere. Keep that in mind if you are trashing this article. If you are scared of the market right now then a nice safe occupation and "safe" place to put your money is best for you.

  • Drew - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 2:56PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Wow, a lot of people nitpick on stuff that they don't appear to fully comprehend. 1. Of course the S&P is currently lower than it was ten years ago. The nature of indexes is that they fluctuate widely, but if you use dollar cost averaging on a market indexed fund you can get 10-12% returns over LONG periods of time. 2. Numbers in examples are sometimes not perfect. The point of the number of shares example was to show the value of dollar cost averaging rather than to show what a well-performing fund would return. 3. Finally, 3% to 4% in a bank is not a good and safe investment because it paces around the level of inflation. "Risky" investing is necessary if you ever realistically hope to grow your capital. In many cases (and especially for a younger person investing for retirement) the riskiest thing you can do is invest in something "safe" that returns less than 6% a year. The difference between a 4% investment and an 8% investment is not a multiple of two. It is an exponent of two, because this is how compound interest works. That makes a 4% investment return over the long haul a very risky proposition.

  • norfolk n chance - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 2:34PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    DON'T BUY STOCKS WHEN BANKS ARE GOING BUST. That was easy wasn't it? And cost you nothing.

  • RobertM - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 2:27PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Suzy is dead one with this one. The people who do will do well are dollar-cost averaging through the bear market and not in panic mode. The losers are selling now. As far as housing if you screwed up and bought more than you could afford hoping for a quick price appreciation, it is time to fold.

  • Michael K - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 2:12PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    A 10 year increase in stock value of 12.5 shares from $250 to $375 is a lousy investment! That comes out to hardly over 4% compounded per year average. I have averaged better than that with funds in my credit union. Ms. Orman should take some refresher classes in simple arithmatic before she writes any more articles on investment advice.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 2:11PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    I enjoy reading these yahoo articles... but I "follow my own heart." If I think the market will tank, I will sell everything I've got! Look at the bagholders at IndyMac. They "had faith"... now they are screwed. The entire bank was built on "faith". Then we find the bank did not have the liquidity to maintain business. And as to, "Don't tell me that the 3 or 4 percent you can get at a bank is a good safe investment." OK, I won't tell you... but I may just do that since this market looks rotten. And the S&P 11.8% annualized gain? Well look at the S&P 500 today... its the same value it was in 1998!!!

  • Celebrity Metallurgist - Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 12:19PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Listening to Suze Orman must have lost her fans more money than any bad market timing. What this savings shrew is advising is this: don't cut your losses on worthless stocks that you can't even sleep in or eat, but get rid of that insignificant little house you call a home. This woman must be deranged.

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