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Jack M. Guttentag The Mortgage Professor

Jack M. Guttentag, The Mortgage Professor

Steering the Mortgage Market as Home Prices Decline

by Jack M. Guttentag

Very Good (153 Ratings)
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Posted on Thursday, October 2, 2008, 12:00AM

The home mortgage market is devilishly difficult to navigate in normal times. During a period in which home prices are declining, the difficulties are compounded. Problems I had never thought about before now pop up regularly in my mailbox. Here are a few of them.

Constructing a Home Becomes More Hazardous

Constructing a home to one's own specifications is enormously appealing to many people. It is also a time-consuming process with many pitfalls that can cause delay or cost extra -- or both.

John agreed with the lender on a combination loan -- a construction loan that would convert into a permanent mortgage upon completion of construction, with a 5 percent down payment. The construction cost was $1 million, making the down payment $50,000. Construction took a year, at the end of which the lender had the house appraised and found it was worth only $800,000. This reduced the loan amount to $760,000 and forced the borrower to come up with $240,000 rather than the anticipated $50,000.

John does not have the added $190,000 to put down, and the house could go to foreclosure without ever being occupied. More likely, the deal will be modified with the lender sharing the loss.

I have always advised against constructing a home from scratch unless the borrower owns the land outright and has uncommitted monies in reserve. In today's market, such caution is even more important.

Balloon Loans Are Hazardous

Tom took a five-year balloon loan 4 ½ years ago because the rate was a little lower than that on a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). On both instruments, the rate is fixed for five years, but on the balloon the balance is payable after five years whereas on the ARM it is not. The ARM rate is adjusted after five years (and every year thereafter), but the lender cannot demand repayment.

In a normal market, the borrower with the balloon could easily refinance, provided that his credit remained strong. He would pay the current market rate, which might be higher or lower than the rate he had been paying, but his ability to borrow would not be an issue.

Tom's house, however, is in a neighborhood devastated by foreclosures, and its current value is 20 percent less than it was five years ago. As a result, he cannot refinance without putting up additional cash that he does not have. Foreclosure is on the horizon.

Lease-to-Own Deals Can Unravel

Two years ago Mary did a lease-to-own deal under which she paid a home seller 2 percent of an agreed-upon price for an option to purchase the house at that price within three years. Mary also pays rent for the right to live in the house for up to three years.

Recently she was informed that the current owner was not making mortgage payments, possibly because of a sharp decline in the property value. While the option to buy the house no longer has any value, since the option price is above current market value, Mary is concerned about her right to live there for the remainder of the term if the lender forecloses. The lawyers I have consulted on this case indicate that a foreclosure would wipe out Mary's tenancy right.

There is nothing that Mary can do at this point to protect herself. Those contemplating a lease-to-own deal in the future would do well to avoid deals where the seller's mortgage is more than 90 percent of current market value. They should also bear in mind that an option to purchase a house at a price 10 percent below current market value is not worth much in a market in which values are declining.

Loan Approvals Aren't Conclusive Until Loan Closes

During a period of declining home prices and rising defaults, underwriting requirements -- the conditions that must be satisfied before a loan can be approved -- become more restrictive. Down payment requirements in particular are likely to be raised as an offset to declining values.

If mortgage transactions were initiated and closed within the day, borrowers would immediately know whether or not they were approved. In actuality, however, the process takes time, especially when it involves a home purchase. This creates a danger that the rules may change when the borrower is in midstream.

This happened to Lucy, who kept getting a message from the loan officer that her loan "would probably be approved," but in the end it was denied and she lost the house along with fees she had paid for an appraisal and other services.

Most reputable lenders will warn that an underwriting change is coming and that the old rules will apply only to loans locked and submitted before some specified date. But information about rule changes are distributed to agents (brokers and loan officers) who, in their anxiety to get deals done, may leave borrowers exposed, as one did with Lucy. Borrowers whose acceptance is borderline are in the greatest danger from an impending rule change.

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101 Comments

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  • Naota - Monday, November 10, 2008, 6:38PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Although a good article, a simple thing are working against starter homeowners: my first home (a nice studio apartment in a decent condo was worth 52K and change. I did have the 10K closing costs, not bad for 6 years of saving while in college with 2 jobs. Now even though salaries have "grown", they have not kept pace with home values(even now in decline and the prospect of 9 % unemployment). So.. as stated previously, how does an entry level employee stash 50K down payment with costs a they are now? simple, middle east style... they don't (credit is not well regarded in the ME). So we're left with an entire system that does not work b/c is not "free market" rules, but free market for the priviledged rules... first stage for either a socialist system or a revolution. How about some solutions instead of repeating like a parrot what we all know already?

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, November 6, 2008, 7:38AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    "You cannot expect lenders to assume risk anymore. Down payments should and will rise back to the 25% - 35% percent range where they belong." I keep hearing this in the media and places like this. I seriously wonder about the logic of this line of reasoning. Let's look at the numbers, assume a starter home in a market is $200K. A 25% down payment would be $50K (plus closing costs). How may 20 something couples buying their first home have $50K laying around? You just took out the majority of first time buyers out of the market. Part of the problem that we have now is lack of demand and too much supply. So, again I ask, how does that help the mortgage industry and more importantly real estate markets? The forclosure rate on FHA loans seems to be doing just fine with 3% down payment. Besides, higher down payment has nothing to do with affordability. It has everything to do with the risk taken on by lenders in that there is some equity stake that they will assume upon forclosure to offset the costs of foreclosure. Debt to income ratio is the determining factor on affordabilty os a mortgage, not loan to value ratio that is being referred to here. Even then, it assumes continued employment and expenses, which in today's economy is definitely not a given.

  • Rosepw - Thursday, October 16, 2008, 3:40PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I just heard Cramer from CNBC he wants the Government to dip into the Social Security Trust Fund to provide more liquidity for his greedy friends on Wall Street. After they screwed up every one elses finances they are now after Grand Mothers few pennies. He needs to be put on an Island with a constant drip of Valium, in a straight jacket. That man is out of control, he will say anything to lick his greedy rich friends boots.

  • A. - Wednesday, October 15, 2008, 4:56PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    the best thing for the economy is to KEEP MR. BERNANKE FROM SPEAKING!!

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, October 15, 2008, 4:12PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    It was good to read this article and understand the potential issues with a rent-to-buy option. I suggested my friend to do that but now I am glad he didn't do it.

Showing comments 1-5 of 101Next >>

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