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Mick Weinstein, The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Meltdown at Frannie, Lehman...Who's Next?

by Mick Weinstein

Very Good (181 Ratings)
3.0441984/5
Posted on Friday, September 12, 2008, 12:00AM
Now, the fear is palpable. With the government bailout of mortgage behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, followed by Lehman Brothers' seeming death spiral and even more banks in trouble this week (et tu, WaMu? Merrill??), everyone's wondering just when the bleeding will stop. For market bloggers, key questions at the moment pertain to the limits of government bailouts and the fate of Lehman:

• Investment advisor Michael Shedlock takes Fannie and Freddie management to task for squandering "every penny of capital they had. One might have thought that insolvency would have been reason enough to start taking less lending risks instead of continuing on the same foolish path... But no! Fresh with a $100 billion taxpayer bailout, the very first thing out of [Fannie Mae CEO] Tom Lund's mouth is to inform everyone that nothing has changed, and it's business as usual. ‘Business as usual' is exactly why we are in this mess in the first place."

• Market veteran David Merkel wonders "just how much can the U.S. government guarantee?... Who doesn't want to be guaranteed by the government? The auto companies are in line, can I get in line too? I could do amazing things with a $50 billion credit line from the government."

• Indeed, is there reason to believe non-financials like GM and American Airlines will be bailed out as well? Paul Kedrosky has a helpful metaphor to explain why that's not necessarily the case.

• Were Fannie and Freddie "just too big," as VP candidate Palin stated? Well, that wasn't necessarily the problem; Felix Salmon says "the marginalization of Fannie and Freddie during the housing boom would probably, on net, have been a bad thing. Insofar as anybody was sticking up for old-fashioned underwriting standards, it was the GSEs, and I suspect that if they hadn't been around, prime underwriting would have suffered the same race to the bottom as subprime." Salmon supported Sunday's GSE bailout under the circumstances: "Let's just do this thing, people, and get the companies run by technocrats in the public service rather than CEOs beholden to a small group of shareholders."

• Economist Mark Thoma sees in the bailout the ceding of policy independence by U.S. authorities. It means that the U.S. joins a "list of nations that have had to go, hat in hands, to their creditors - Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Russia, Brazil, etc. Do the implications resonate in Washington, D.C.?" Thoma wants to be sure that government policy "cushions the downside" of this new state of affairs, "easing the structural transition to an economy not dependent upon foreign official financing..."

Michelle Leder takes a close look at the huge severance packages the departing Fannie and Freddie CEOs will receive. "[T]he figures being talked about for Mudd and Syron are $9.3 million and $14.1 million respectively. But given the over-complicated nature of both executives' employment contracts... the numbers seem a bit more open to interpretation."

Lehman on the Brink

An eavesdropping WSJ reporter caught a Lehman Brothers employee Thursday afternoon chatting on his cell outside the office: "It's over, man... unless we get bought out in the next 24 hours, it's over." So it seems - reports overnight indicate that the Fed and Treasury are at work trying to broker a Bear Stearns-style fire sale of Lehman.

• Lehman is "a sad tale, a classic story of hubris and greed," says Wall Street veteran Roger Ehrenberg. With Washington's move to sell Lehman, "we're going in the right direction, but we still seem to be a ways away from the time when the Fed and the Treasury will do what is right and fair in the marketplace: LET THEM FAIL."

David Reilly at WSJ.com's Heard on the Street: "If the Federal Reserve now backstops an emergency sale of Lehman, this will only reinforce the idea that the cavalry will always ride to creditors' rescue in supposedly too-important-to-fail firms. That would especially be the case if a bailout were organized so soon after the Treasury rescued creditors of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... To avoid reckless lending in the future, failure has to be an option."

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism thinks "we may have a bit of brinksmanship going. It appeared during the Bear Stearns negotiations that Jamie Dimon played his position as the only game in town to considerable advantage. The Fed and Treasury would be advised not to make themselves again to be hostage to one bidder, but that may be unavoidable."

• London-based hedge fund trader Macro Man laments: "Another day, another US government intervention... it's a damned shame that LEH has gone to the wall, but being a damned shame isn't necessarily a good criterion for government intervention. Readers across the world can no doubt think of domestic issues that are a damned shame but have yet have yielded no government response."

• Investment advisor Dave Fry: "If the government backstops potential losses through a deal to save Lehman Brothers, it shouldn't shock anyone. It will lead to a knee jerk rally and then we'll have reality to deal with once again, as an ongoing credit squeeze continues to keep home prices falling. That's because no one can qualify to buy a home - even from the few willing to lend."

Martin Hutchinson tries to answer the key question: "Just where were all the risk-management experts who should have assessed the pitfalls these companies faced, and how could they have missed the massive risks that are now threatening to take this entire sector down?"

And finally, before you consider buying the beaten-down stock of Fannie, Freddie, Lehman or any other financial firm that's recently been decimated, take heed of the lesson from legendary investor Bill Miller, as conveyed by New York Times blogger Joe Nocera. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

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146 Comments

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  • Olivia - Tuesday, September 30, 2008, 10:29AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Do not be fooled. The $700 billion (ultimately $1 trillion or more) bailout is not predominantly for mortgages and homeowners. Instead, the bailout is for mortgage-backed securities. In fact, some versions of these instruments are imaginary derivatives. These claims overlap on the same types of mortgages. Many financial institutions wrote claims over the same mortgages, and these are the majority of claims that have "gone bad." At this point, such claims have no bearing on the mortgage or housing crisis; they have bearing only on the holders of these securities themselves. These are ridiculously risky claims with little value for society. It is as if many financial institutions sold "earthquake insurance" on the same house: when the quake hits, all these claims become close to worthless — but the claims are simply bets disconnected from reality. Follow the money. Average Joes and Janes are not the holders of the other side of complicated, over-the-counter derivatives contracts. Rather, hedge funds are the main holders. The bailout will involve a transfer of wealth — from the American people to financial institutions engaging in reckless speculation — that will be the greatest in history. Rescuing financial institutions is not the best solution. Yes, banks are needed to provide capital to businesses. But it is not necessary to spend $1 trillion to maintain liquidity. If the government is to intervene, it should pick and choose which claims to purchase; claims that are directly tied to mortgages would be a good start. Let financial institutions fail, merge or be bought out. The faltering institutions will see their shares devalued and will be likely to be taken over by stronger institutions — as has already started happening. This consolidation of the financial sector is both efficient and inevitable; government action can only delay the adjustment. The government should not intervene. It should leave overleveraged financial institutions to default on their derivatives obligations and, if necessary, file for bankruptcy. Much of the crisis has arisen from miscalculating the risks involved in a large book of positions in these derivatives. It is only logical that these institutions pay for their poor management. Rather than bailing out Wall Street, we propose that the government should buy up the actual mortgages in question and do nothing else. The government should not touch any derivatives; that is, claims that do not directly tie into the actual mortgages. If money becomes too tight, then the Fed can certainly increase its loans to financial institutions. Let the poorly managed, overly risk-taking financial institutions fail! Always remember that Wall Street and the real economy are not the same thing.

  • Da Big Guy - Monday, September 15, 2008, 7:35AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    In the words of a famous blogger.."We have not yet begun to bleed!" Cut me Mick..I still can't see!

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Monday, September 15, 2008, 4:01AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    All I can say is that this crap is starting to get really scary. The whole financial system seems on the verge on collapse! Where the hell was the regulation during all this nonsense? And I dont care if they say the taxpayer isnt bailing out lehman. Dont be fooled people. They may not directly use your tax dollars from the treasury, but instead they will just take the money right out from your paycheck. Its called printing money and causing inflation. I hate to say it, but this country is really starting to piss me off lately and im ready to pack it in and get the hell out of here!

  • brown bear - Monday, September 15, 2008, 3:08AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    when will the bailouts end, and who is paying for all of these companies debts

  • spike - Monday, September 15, 2008, 2:57AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    When Lehman fails, will the taxpayer be stuck for the billions they borrowed from the Fed's discount window?

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