Friday, January 8, 2010, 4:08PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
• David Gaffen at the WSJ says investors are still waiting for the next bad thing: "this forward-looking market continues to anticipate unknown events in much the way an outmatched boxer views his opponent: through bloodied eyes and in a defensive crouch... The bill is likely to pass muster in the House Friday. However, the market is unlikely to move on."
• Felix Salmon poses two simple questions regarding the bailout plan that "no one knows the answers to." He concludes: "Passage in the House is necessary for the banking system to return to some semblance of normality. But it's not remotely sufficient."
• Steve Waldman remains "astonished" by those who support the package: "There has been so much talk of catastrophic consequences if we do not support this bailout. What happens if we do pass the act - over the clear objections of the vast majority of Americans - and the depression still comes? The Paulson Plan is now the easy out. It has a lot of momentum behind it. It feels safe. But it is not guaranteed to work even in the short run, and does not address the substance of our economic problems at all. Much of the public perceives the plan as at best a kind of ransom and at worst a kind of theft."
• Wall Street veteran Roger Ehrenberg is stunned by "a generation's worth of restructuring an industry in two weeks...the U.S. Government is making some very, very poor decisions, and the market is speaking out. We need to get a deal done - now - but we absolutely need transparency, we need a clear and unwavering set of rules for financial market participants that don't change at the whim of the SEC, we need to create a competitive market for distressed assets, and we need to address those who are creditworthy with badly structured mortgages. This is a big job but a doable job, and it requires bipartisan support with a minimum of BS."
• Bond expert John Jansen provides a very telling data point from the corporate bond world: "I have followed the saga... of the most recently issued 5 year American Express bond. It is a scary story. The bond was issued on a Friday in August at a spread of 4 3/8 percentage points over the 5 year Treasury. That was a shocking event as the company was forced to pay over 100 basis points more than the levels at which outstanding Amex paper was trading... Earlier this week the issue was about 500 basis points cheap to the benchmark Treasury... I spoke with one of my regular corporate bond sources and he said that his firm was actually offering $4 million of this bond at 650 basis points over the 5 year Treasury." What does that mean? "The market in my mind is on the verge of shutting down. There is sand in the gears and the machine is about to break down on the side of the road."
• Fellow bond market professional Accrued Interest explains why non-finance people should support this rescue: "If we don't do this bailout, Main Street will pay anyway, and pay much more dearly."
• Henry Blodget predicts what happens after "the government has been terrified into rubber-stamping the bailout."
Being Greedy When Everyone's Fearful
Some brave souls are wading into these bloody waters and putting new money to work. Where are they investing?
• Canned goods: "Just one stock in the S&P 500 was up Monday," noted Bespoke Investment Group. "And guess which one it was? Campbell Soup (CPB). Talk about a bomb shelter stock!"
• Distressed assets: Oh wait, looks like we're all investing in this fund.
• General Electric: This week, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock with a 10% yield from GE. Greg Fierman acknowledges that "Buffett is getting some very sweet deals because of who he is. However, I don't think he'd be putting this money to work if he didn't see some real value in these companies...This is a sign that there is starting to be value in the financial markets." Yet Bespoke Investment Group note that Buffett's GE warrants are already trading out of the money.
• Apple: The stock fell hard again this week following a set of downgrades, but Andy Zaky remains a committed and articulate shareholder. Fellow shareholder Chris Krasowski concurs: "Apple's cheap, it's a steal, and there are very real catalysts in the next few months." Eddy Elfenbein says that "even if the company only grows its earnings-per-share by a little bit, the current price won't be a bad entry price. I wouldn't bite just yet, but an $80 share price would be hard to ignore." One blogger isn't surprised by Apple's fall: Two months ago, Michelle Leder found "stark new language" in the company's 10-Q filing.
• Google: Ockham Research believes the search giant's shares are currently too cheap to ignore. Dan Lyons, meanwhile, is skeptical of big G's motivation in lobbying for alternative energy.
• Nokia and Research in Motion: George Spritzer initiated a position in the Finnish handset maker Nokia recently, and provides five reasons why he believes its beaten-down stock is now a compelling value. Matt Stewart, meanwhile, provides five reasons why Nokia competitor Research in Motion will continue to fall.
• Hard assets: Tom Lydon finds asset managers running for cover to gold ETFs, but encourages investors to "keep in mind that base metals can underperform in a recession." Mark Anthony posits that "people must seek physical assets as the only trustworthy safe haven assets during times of crisis" and remains bullish on certain precious metals.
• Hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson names three stocks that his fund remains long with high conviction.
• Bill Cara is sticking to shares of top quality companies only - his favored list currently includes senior and junior energy producers, plus chemical, paper, miner, and precious metal firms.
• Interestingly, the dollar is rallying. While Jean-Claude Kommer has a rather pessimistic theory to explain the greenback's strength, Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution has a longer-term bullish stance: "My inclination is to think the dollar will hold its value. I don't trust any of the macro models of currency values and we do know that purchasing power parity... does not imply a bearish stance toward the dollar."








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