Friday, January 8, 2010, 4:08PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Mick Weinstein The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Mick Weinstein, The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Bailout Blues

by Mick Weinstein

Good (94 Ratings)
2.25532/5
Posted on Friday, October 3, 2008, 12:00AM
When Warren Buffett defines the credit crisis an "economic Pearl Harbor" and Paul Krugman says it situates us "on the edge of the abyss," you get a sense of magnitude of this problem. What follows is a sampling from several savvy market bloggers about what's happening now and what may be in store for the future:

David Gaffen at the WSJ says investors are still waiting for the next bad thing: "this forward-looking market continues to anticipate unknown events in much the way an outmatched boxer views his opponent: through bloodied eyes and in a defensive crouch... The bill is likely to pass muster in the House Friday. However, the market is unlikely to move on."

Felix Salmon poses two simple questions regarding the bailout plan that "no one knows the answers to." He concludes: "Passage in the House is necessary for the banking system to return to some semblance of normality. But it's not remotely sufficient."

Steve Waldman remains "astonished" by those who support the package: "There has been so much talk of catastrophic consequences if we do not support this bailout. What happens if we do pass the act - over the clear objections of the vast majority of Americans - and the depression still comes? The Paulson Plan is now the easy out. It has a lot of momentum behind it. It feels safe. But it is not guaranteed to work even in the short run, and does not address the substance of our economic problems at all. Much of the public perceives the plan as at best a kind of ransom and at worst a kind of theft."

• Wall Street veteran Roger Ehrenberg is stunned by "a generation's worth of restructuring an industry in two weeks...the U.S. Government is making some very, very poor decisions, and the market is speaking out. We need to get a deal done - now - but we absolutely need transparency, we need a clear and unwavering set of rules for financial market participants that don't change at the whim of the SEC, we need to create a competitive market for distressed assets, and we need to address those who are creditworthy with badly structured mortgages. This is a big job but a doable job, and it requires bipartisan support with a minimum of BS."

• Bond expert John Jansen provides a very telling data point from the corporate bond world: "I have followed the saga... of the most recently issued 5 year American Express bond. It is a scary story. The bond was issued on a Friday in August at a spread of 4 3/8 percentage points over the 5 year Treasury. That was a shocking event as the company was forced to pay over 100 basis points more than the levels at which outstanding Amex paper was trading... Earlier this week the issue was about 500 basis points cheap to the benchmark Treasury... I spoke with one of my regular corporate bond sources and he said that his firm was actually offering $4 million of this bond at 650 basis points over the 5 year Treasury." What does that mean? "The market in my mind is on the verge of shutting down. There is sand in the gears and the machine is about to break down on the side of the road."

• Fellow bond market professional Accrued Interest explains why non-finance people should support this rescue: "If we don't do this bailout, Main Street will pay anyway, and pay much more dearly."

Henry Blodget predicts what happens after "the government has been terrified into rubber-stamping the bailout."

Being Greedy When Everyone's Fearful

Some brave souls are wading into these bloody waters and putting new money to work. Where are they investing?

• Canned goods: "Just one stock in the S&P 500 was up Monday," noted Bespoke Investment Group. "And guess which one it was? Campbell Soup (CPB). Talk about a bomb shelter stock!"

Distressed assets: Oh wait, looks like we're all investing in this fund.

• General Electric: This week, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock with a 10% yield from GE. Greg Fierman acknowledges that "Buffett is getting some very sweet deals because of who he is. However, I don't think he'd be putting this money to work if he didn't see some real value in these companies...This is a sign that there is starting to be value in the financial markets." Yet Bespoke Investment Group note that Buffett's GE warrants are already trading out of the money.

• Apple: The stock fell hard again this week following a set of downgrades, but Andy Zaky remains a committed and articulate shareholder. Fellow shareholder Chris Krasowski concurs: "Apple's cheap, it's a steal, and there are very real catalysts in the next few months." Eddy Elfenbein says that "even if the company only grows its earnings-per-share by a little bit, the current price won't be a bad entry price. I wouldn't bite just yet, but an $80 share price would be hard to ignore." One blogger isn't surprised by Apple's fall: Two months ago, Michelle Leder found "stark new language" in the company's 10-Q filing.

• Google: Ockham Research believes the search giant's shares are currently too cheap to ignore. Dan Lyons, meanwhile, is skeptical of big G's motivation in lobbying for alternative energy.

• Nokia and Research in Motion: George Spritzer initiated a position in the Finnish handset maker Nokia recently, and provides five reasons why he believes its beaten-down stock is now a compelling value. Matt Stewart, meanwhile, provides five reasons why Nokia competitor Research in Motion will continue to fall.

• Hard assets: Tom Lydon finds asset managers running for cover to gold ETFs, but encourages investors to "keep in mind that base metals can underperform in a recession." Mark Anthony posits that "people must seek physical assets as the only trustworthy safe haven assets during times of crisis" and remains bullish on certain precious metals.

• Hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson names three stocks that his fund remains long with high conviction.

Bill Cara is sticking to shares of top quality companies only - his favored list currently includes senior and junior energy producers, plus chemical, paper, miner, and precious metal firms.

• Interestingly, the dollar is rallying. While Jean-Claude Kommer has a rather pessimistic theory to explain the greenback's strength, Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution has a longer-term bullish stance: "My inclination is to think the dollar will hold its value. I don't trust any of the macro models of currency values and we do know that purchasing power parity... does not imply a bearish stance toward the dollar."

 

Rate This story

Good (94 Ratings)
2.5/5
Sign-in to rate!

116 Comments

Showing comments 1-5 of 116Next >>
Sort: first to last
  • Yahoo! Finance User - Saturday, October 11, 2008, 6:23AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    This isn't a bailout, this is theft. George Bush and congress give me my money back.

  • W.Ross-CEO Industrial Gaming - Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 3:35PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    The market rises and falls , for the most part, on SPECULATION. As we push further into the future I just ask ALL of the doomsday writers to SHUT UP! My god be a professional;you are all causing a huge nonsense panic. People are withdrawing from their accounts all of tomorrows promises. Give the economy a break! Most of the "experts" of wall street writing are repeating the same story. Might I suggest to leave your cash in place and rely on the system that we have used and trusted for years. After all, can't you think on your own?

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 2:37PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    I'm tired of hearing oly terms like robbery, fraud, and other bad things the other guy did to you people. how about assisted suicide performed over a period ofeveral decades. maybe the bailout wasn't effective CPR, but a least it wasn't just standing around wagging tounges and b$##@&*ing without doing your homework. If you didn't see this coming, what rock were you partying under? I ain't wealthy, and neither am I worried. I live real comfortable, only debt is a zero interest loan on my car, with safe cash to pay it off, all earning about 7%. I like steak, but also rice and beans and gumbo. Been saving for several years prepping for this, diversifying investments, (after studying them from more angles than most advisors do) which are down probably more than yours, but they will be back before yours and long before I am out of cash. BTW investment income is UP and expect it to decrease no more than 10%.(base metal mining, munis, SOLID reits, some energy, some transport...some good dii, some lousy divi,...some US some foreign. some mid cap and some large....etc, some dead presidents and some Au & Ag) all accumulated over a number of years (rather than exotic vacations on credit) and all on middle and lower income, while educasting two kids. I've been down over 25% before and rebounded to a gain. SOI, i'm tired of hearing paranoid crybabies (I know some of you are in erious trouble because, partially, of unscrupulous salesmen et,, I'm not talking to you folks., However to those who danced on other folk's money, it's time to kwiturbichen put some dough in the jukebox. (beans and rice are nutritious, and taste real good with cornbread and bacon fat after a hard days work)

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 2:25PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    The House failed to pass the bail out and the market tanked, the Senate and the House pass the bailout, and Bush signs it into law, the market tanks. Bernanke Speaks, Dow Falls 300. Well at least the market can't go below 0, which if the current trend continues, should right about election day.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 1:59PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Has anyone else noticed that EVERY time some news comes out of Washington about the bailout, that the market goes DOWN? This morning the market was up slightly, then it was posted that the bailout money was about to start being funneled out, and the market went slightly DOWN. THEN, Bernanke offered up his thoughts on the matter, and the market WENT DOWN WAY MORE. Coincidence??

Showing comments 1-5 of 116Next >>

Recent Articles by Mick Weinstein

Seeking Alpha is the leading provider of stock market opinion and analysis from blogs, money managers, and investment newsletters, and a producer of its own financial content on market-moving news developments.

Read more from Seeking Alpha here.

More from Yahoo! Sources

  • CNN Money
  • Consumer Reports
  • Kiplinger
  • The Motley Fool
  • Business Week
  • Wall Street Journal

Sponsored Links

Free 2010 Credit Report and All 3 Scores
Free 3-bureau Credit Report – includes Transunion, Equifax, Experian.
FreeCreditReportsInstantly.com
Buy Stocks for $4
No Account or Investment Minimums. $50 Account Bonus! Don’t miss out.
www.sharebuilder.com
Refinance Now at 3.7% APR
$160,000 mortgage under $752/mo. Free. No Obligation. Get 4 quotes now.
MortgageRefinance.LendGo.com
Obama Urges Homeowners to Refinance
APR as low as 3.616%! Calculate New Mortgage Payment Now.
www.SeeRefinanceRates.com
Don't Pay For School - Free Scholarships
Sign Up For Your Free Guide To $38 Million In Scholarships.
ProgramAdvisor.com/FreeScholarships
Super Cheap Car Insurance
Get Discount Car Insurance Quotes Online – Rates from $15 / Month.
Discount-Car-Insurance-Rates.com

Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data and daily updates provided by Morningstar, Inc. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.

Yahoo! Answers is provided for informational purposes only, and no Q&A is intended for trading or investing purposes. Yahoo! shall not be responsible or liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any Q&A information, and shall not be responsible or liable for any trading or investment decisions based on such information. View Complete Answers Disclaimer.