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Mick Weinstein The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Mick Weinstein, The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Obamanomics: What’s Ahead

by Mick Weinstein

Fair (306 Ratings)
1.993468/5
Posted on Friday, November 7, 2008, 12:00AM
Following Barack Obama's remarkable victory, finance bloggers immediately began speculating on the President-elect's likely impact on the market and economy at large. Here's a roundup of some of the best commentary from the past couple of days. As always, if an item piques your interest, click though for the full article. I'm just the curator...

Matt Cooper likens Obama's first days in office to those of Franklin Delano Roosevelt confronting the Great Depression: "This promises to be a transition like no other, or at least like any other since 1932 when that economic crisis dominated the transfer of power... F.D.R. was wise enough to know that a speculator like [Joseph P.] Kennedy would be best to run an agency devoted to regulating speculation. Hopefully Obama's bugaboo about lobbyists -- he wouldn't take their money during the campaign -- won't keep him from appointing some of the smart ones."

James Picerno finds this comparison to F.D.R. "a bit much," but acknowledges that "the stakes are indeed high - higher than at any time in recent memory for a new government. The fact that the incoming president's resume is a bit light doesn't inspire. And so we must wait, somewhat anxiously, to see his decisions on a host of subjects. One topic that he can't afford to fumble is promoting growth, which is really the only solution to what ails America, domestically speaking."

Tracy Alloway at FT Alphaville presents a snapshot of the economic problems Obama faces in the next four years, complete with colorful graphics, and adds "Of course many of these things (the pooring of America, etc.) have helped Mr. Obama get elected in the first place."

• Wall Street veteran Roger Ehrenberg offers a few "guiding principles" for President-elect Obama to follow - among them: "Do not raise taxes. For anybody. Individuals. Corporations. Anybody. Period."

• Portfolio manager Jeff Miller believes financial assets held by major financial institutions continue to be "viewed with extreme skepticism." Given this, Miller believes the most important action Obama should take is to "stabilize trading in the various debt securities."

WSJ's Real Time Economics points out that Obama "will have an opportunity to dramatically remake the Federal Reserve starting in his first year in office with three governor slots currently open on the Fed's Board of Governors."

Diane Lim Rogers thinks Obama should abandon his campaign pledges to cut taxes, and focus on deficit reduction instead: "we really need President-elect Obama to come through as our true 'fiscal superhero'... we need him to courageously pursue wise, fiscally-responsible ideas which may at first seem politically unwise, but which through his giftedness as a leader, a communicator, and a uniter, he can turn into politically popular ideas as well."

• CFA Cam Hui: "The atmosphere today is somewhat reminiscent of the elevation of Nelson Mandela to the presidency of South Africa... The fiscal implications of the Obama's election promises remain problematic. Longer term, America is a country with high levels of income inequality and low social mobility, which can result in a class structure that inhibits innovation."

• Professor Paul Caron of the University of Cincinnati takes a look at tax policy in the Obama-Biden administration.

• Why did the market fall hard the past two days, following Obama's victory? FreeExchange posits "[o]ne reason may be that markets already reflected the outcome; after all, it was not exactly unanticipated." Gary Weiss counters that "Charlie Gasparino was criticized for a New York Post column a few weeks back saying that the market was afraid of Barack Obama's policies. At the time I thought he was wrong, but the market's action lately seems to be confirming that point."

Obama's Key Appointments

• There's much anticipation regarding Obama's selection of a new Treasury Secretary, given the raised profile and increased importance of that role during the current credit crisis. Felix Salmon finds prediction market InTrade indicating Larry Summers as the frontrunner, but notes "the most compelling long-shot name I've seen is Mike Bloomberg... if [Bloomberg] acquits himself well as Treasury Secretary, he could be well placed to run for president in 2016 -- and that, of course, is the job he really wants." Salmon's colleagues at Portfolio.com have put together another terrific interactive graphic on this matter.

Luke Mullins of US News sees New York Fed president Timothy Geithner as the most likely choice.

Noam Scheiber at The New Republic: "Geithner might have been the leading candidate for Treasury secretary in any typical applicant pool... In this case, though, his long-time friend is a rival. In terms of sheer brainpower, Summers is off the charts."

• As a counterpoint, Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo makes the case against Summers.

Michelle Leder of Footnoted.org addresses another key appointment: head of the SEC. Leder's suggestion is "Nell Minow. While her Wikipedia profile highlights her role as 'Movie Mom', it's her role as a shareholder activist at LENS and now as co-founder of The Corporate Library that makes her a natural for this critical position."

Investing Under Obama

• David Gaffen at MarketBeat asks what we can expect from stocks following Obama's victory. "Historically, the November-December period following the election of a new president is a honeymoon period for stocks, if only because the previous two months are generally pretty terrible."

Martin Hutchinson takes a look at investor 'profit plays' under the new administration - here are a couple: "The corollary of Obama's emissions permit program... is that an investor should sell coal-producing companies and coal-fired electric utilities, and invest in nuclear power stations and uranium-mining companies. In principle, there should also be opportunities in the solar- and wind-power sectors, but the 'new energy' fad of the last couple of years has already driven their valuations to uneconomic levels."

Eric Savitz from Barron's notes that solar stocks experienced a "torrid rally" in anticipation of Obama's victory, but warns investors that "before you jump in, you might want to think for a moment about what will actually transpire - and on what timetable."

Jim Wiandt of IndexUniverse comments: "I do hope some responsibility creeps into the budget, because right now, the U.S. is like a 12-year-old kid with a credit card, completely out of control." Wiandt shares thoughts on Obama and your portfolio, warning on traditional energy companies that trouble could lie ahead: "With focus on the American consumer, don't be surprised if Obama puts the brakes on profits for U.S. energy companies if oil prices again rise. Think 'windfall profits tax'."

• Finally, Ryan Barnes presents a list a industries that are "at risk" under Obama, and those that are likely to "experience tailwinds."

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251 Comments

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  • MillyW - Monday, November 24, 2008, 4:15AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    The young and the media have put in power a VERY inexperienced person and expects this person to perform miracles. It's ironic how everyone blames Bush for this economy when most of those in congress and the senate are all democraps. All they did was add fuel to a raging fire by putting in another inexperienced democrat as president. All I see in the next four years is a great depression coming our way. Inexperience with far left liberal thinking will surely spell DOOM! Bye Bye stocks and funds. I will be hiding for the next four years!

  • Clem - Monday, November 17, 2008, 9:18AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    The previous statement that aid to the auto industry is "trickle down economics" is hilarious. True trickle down, which has gloriusly worked for 200 years to provide the juice for our unparalleled growth, is private-sourced capitalism at its finest. Government trickle down is plain socialism exampled by the leftist failure in Europe. Obama would be wise to put to an end our country's foolish leftist drift and get us back to what was successful in the past.

  • Fillup - Sunday, November 16, 2008, 7:08PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    The teachers union and the college professors have done their work well in America. Dumb parents yield dumb children. Imagine believing the promises of those two guys running for president. Anybody with any brains knows the real power lies with Congress as they have the keys to the safe and they don' t have a clue as to what has happened to our country.

  • Red - Sunday, November 16, 2008, 10:03AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    The great unwashed mob is at last in total control of this once great nation. After 2000 years the lowing herd still prefers Barabas to men of good will. Over the next eight years the ignorant will suffer even greater pain and suffering while the clever will rise to much greater levels of wealth. I thank god for the education America has made available to me. I will silently prosper while others around me weep and peep and grind their teeth in anger at the eight years of failed Bush policy that is responsible for any and all of their needs not being met.

  • Michael - Sunday, November 16, 2008, 9:38AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Let's see how Obama does before we judge him. Where was the harsh criticism of bush after he demonstrated a severe incompetence in his first term? Then over 50 Million people actually re-elected him? I'm in the great blue state of IL and can honestly say, you can't blame us for BUSH's messes - we tried to evict him from the White House in 2000. So don't blame us! Bush - the worst president in history. And 100 years from now, they will still be teaching so in history classes. Maybe even 1000 years from now. Has he done ANYTHING well during his term?

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