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Mick Weinstein The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Mick Weinstein, The Week's Best Stock Blogs

Buck Naked: As the Dollar Dwindles, Gold Sparkles Anew

by Mick Weinstein

Good (61 Ratings)
2.426232/5
Posted on Friday, March 14, 2008, 12:00AM

When the euro was first launched as an accounting currency in 1999, it was on par with the U.S. dollar. Right now, however, your buck can be exchanged for just 0.64 euro. Ouch.

Dollar Foolish

The dollar's precipitous fall was the focus of many market bloggers this week -- here's some of the best commentary:

Forex analyst Kathy Lien asks if currency intervention from the central banks to prop up the dollar is likely -- or even worthwhile -- and provides five reasons why she believes the greenback will fall even further.

Macroeconomist Menzie Chin notes President Bush's statement this week that he's in favor of a strong dollar, and believes the commander-in-chief has the right approach to supporting the U.S. currency in the long run. But Eben Esterhuizen asks, "What happens when the Fed's monetary policy fails to work?"

Gold Continues to Shine

Gold reached new highs on the dollar's weakness, rising above $1000 an ounce on Wednesday.

Bespoke Investment Group charts how the dollar/gold ratio has recently "gone parabolic."

Amid this ongoing dollar/gold dynamic, Tim Iacono questions the mainstream media's odd yet persistent skepticism on gold as an investment, while Charles Kirk warns that the bull market in gold is hitting his "junk mail indicator," suggesting that the "easy money has already been made."

Fed Action: Divine Intervention?

On Tuesday morning, the Federal Reserve moved to enhance liquidity in fixed-income markets by announcing it would expand its term securities lending facility to $200 billion, and accept mortgage-backed bonds as collateral from financial institutions for up to a month.

The move was initially seen by the markets as a type of "divine intervention," according to Financial Times' excellent Alphaville blog, as stocks rocketed for the day but trading patterns quickly returned to what has become normal. "The underlying issue is one of solvency rather than liquidity," Alphaville remarked. "Neither the Fed nor anyone else will enter from stage left to sort out this problem. Tragically, the solution will involve some pain."

Yves Smith says the move is "as close as one can get without an act of Congress to affirming the implicit federal guarantee of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debt," but warns, "We haven't even seen the worst of the housing crisis, yet the Fed has already used a great deal of its firepower."

"The Fed action came at a time when the markets were ripe for an oversold bounce," says Barry Ritholtz. While it may help financial institutions, Ritholtz believes it won't do anything for the housing market or the "inverted pyramid" of derivatives that sits atop housing. "No recession at any cost seems to be the Fed's philosophy in light of the latest massive cash infusion to banks." Steve Waldman says the real test of this, like similar Fed interventions in this area, will come 28 days later.

Markham Lee thinks the move "seemed like a sneaky way to allow the brokerage firms to borrow from the Fed," showing that "the Fed is willing to do almost anything to bail out the financial sector." Lee's wondering what the Fed will do next, "instead of letting the free markets do their job. I think Tuesday could be the first step down a slippery slope to a sort of ‘de-facto socialism' for the financial markets, the consequences of which will be quite dire."

Felix Salmon imagines Fed chief Ben Bernanke as a type of action hero: "Every time the credit markets seize up and threaten to bring down the U.S. financial system, he pulls out a new weapon." Salmon's somewhat more optimistic, though, because while the Fed won't be able to prevent a recession, they "might at least be enough to keep the markets functioning relatively smoothly on the way down."

David Merkel believes there's less to the Fed action than meets the eye. "The Fed in this case is being ‘too clever' and needs to do a permanent injection of liquidity. If they don't want to do that, well, let's move back to the gold standard, and privatize monetary policy."

The Downfall of Client 9

Finally, given Wall Street's overdose of schadenfreude this week, I'd be remiss if we failed to highlight a few responses to the Elliot Spitzer scandal:

Vahan Janjigian: "It is a little gratifying to see this 'holier than thou' crusader get caught in his own ethical lapse. Spitzer made a career of ruining the reputations of numerous businessmen; not by convicting any of them of doing anything criminal, but by threatening to indict their companies if they didn't resign."

Felix Salmon sees it somewhat differently: "Wall Street hated Spitzer, with a vehemence rarely seen in an industry famed for its clubbable bankers... Spitzer went after Wall Street's big-shots not because he was a saint on a moral mission, but because he was a power-hungry alpha male with (as we now know) the kind of weaknesses which usually bedevil such men. On the other hand, someone needed to remind Wall Street that it could not shaft its clients with impunity while raking in billion-dollar profits. The bully has been brought to his knees, but the banks he bullied are still at least a little bit cowed, and on balance that's probably no bad thing."

Finally, venture capitalist Fred Wilson takes a philosophical approach: "This story is a tragedy of Shakespearian proportions. How does a man with so much going for him do something so stupid and self-destructive? Why do people self destruct and what can we learn from it?"

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28 Comments

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  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, April 4, 2008, 1:02AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Gold is not cheap allowing for inflatioon, and has not performed well most other asset classes except for the last 5-6 years. Compare a spot gold chart for the last 35 years (period US citizens could own and hold gold in their own name inside the US) to SPX, residential real estate, oil, etc etc. Gold does not have an exceptional rate of return over the entire period and the standard deviation of expected return is terrible.

  • mtheus24 - Friday, March 14, 2008, 11:45PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Saving money in the bank is the worst thing to do right now. Why would you save a falling currency in a bank with less than 3 percent interest rate? You end up losing money when you adjust for inflation. Gold is still cheap if adjusted for inflation. You should be buying gold, silver, and other hard assets right now and be getting out of the stock market.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, March 14, 2008, 10:45PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Yep. Gold is way too expensive to buy now. I would not buy gold. Keep saving your money in the bank. Gold is probably going to go back down to $700 in the next month or so; it's way hyped up. People tend to make this "financial crisis" bigger than what it is. Relax and everything will be find.

  • Robert Mills - Friday, March 14, 2008, 9:26PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    How about noting comments by Peter Schiff or Bob Fleckenstein, d--mbass? If I had listened to you or most of the other morons who are considered gurus of finance on Yahoo, I would not have bought gold/silver nor would of had great returns on my money with Schiff's firm (foreign dividend paying stocks, foreign currency). To those readers who need it, teach yourself some basic finance principles and listen to contrarian views also!!!!

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, March 14, 2008, 8:46PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Sir, have you even read any of the books out there that predicted this mess? I recommend "America's Financial Apocalypse: How to Profit from the Next Great Depression." No doubt, it will help you deliver more insight to your audience. Summarizing what has been stated by the people who missed everything serves no one any purpose. You should start listening to and reading what the small handful of experts said who predicted this disaster.

Showing comments 1-5 of 28Next >>

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