Saturday, September 6, 2008, 4:22PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
As earnings season kicked off this week, the Street wondered: Can strong reports can lift the market out of its first-quarter funk, or are we in for more downside if industry heavyweights miss their numbers?
Earnings Season Kicks Off
GE earnings disappointed this morning, raising concerns that industrial bellwethers are now being hit by the economic slowdown. Bespoke Investment Group and Kathy Lien respond.
Investment advisor Kevin Price says market participants perceive earnings estimates for the next two or three quarters as too high -- even after sell-side analysts have brought them down: "The conventional wisdom is that the conventional wisdom is too optimistic." CFA candidate Turley Muller finds that the "risk premium" of owning stocks versus bonds has dropped recently, which means that "even if investors think earnings forecasts are reasonable, they have a low degree of confidence ... that those estimates will prove accurate."
For London hedge fund trader Macro Man, the recent low equity trading volumes and bland price action indicate lack of interest, or at least conviction, in this earnings season. He's intrigued by the "seemingly inevitable sharp downgrade of U.S. earnings expectations, which would presumably lead to lower stock prices," and believes small caps in particular are looking vulnerable.
Bespoke takes a close look at the all-important Dow Industrials 30 stocks ahead of earnings, highlighting those that most consistently beat -- and miss -- analyst estimates.
On particular companies' earnings: Todd Sullivan tackles Circuit City and Wal-Mart; Shaun Miller addresses Visa and MasterCard; and Bed Bath & Beyond gets gloss from Trader Mark.
Internet Giants Jockey for Position
Microsoft's rebuffed takeover bid for Yahoo! took another interesting turn this week, as the big Internet companies all jockeyed for position ahead of the final (?) turn.
Silicon Alley Insider has had strong ongoing coverage of the developments with typical wit, while Eli Hoffmann succinctly summarizes the bold recent moves from AOL, Google, and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.
Dealbreaker weighs in on the "Murdoch, Yang, Ballmer Menage a Trois" and asks, "Doesn't it suggest a rather severe case of memory loss to think AOL might execute well on a merger?"
TechCrunch's Michael Arrington: "I can't decide if 'nose knifing' or 'scorched earth' is the best way of describing what [Yahoo is] doing, but I have to ask: If Yahoo 'wins' this epic battle with Microsoft, will there be anything left at the end to celebrate over? ... [t]he health of the Internet demands a counterbalance to Google. Yahoo-Microsoft, given the current state of things, is the only reasonable outcome."
Media expert Jeff Jarvis believes "a Yahoo-AOL latchup is Dumb and Dumber, Incorporated. Who would run the thing? What would the strategy be?" Jarvis, who's currently writing a book on Google, believes Yahoo and AOL should follow the Google example, making everything they have exportable, and building a platform for individuals and companies to share content and even start businesses.
"This is ridiculous," says Toronto-based tech writer Mathew Ingram. "The next thing we'll hear is that Yahoo is talking with my Aunt Edna's bridge club about a counter-offer." For Barrons' Eric Savitz, "All the maneuvering shows that Yahoo is a valuable property, if one that has been chronically mismanaged," and that Yahoo may have more "wiggle room" than previously thought.
Investment advisor Chad Brand finds it fascinating that Yahoo, "the old search leader," could end up outsourcing search advertising to Google, the very upstart that took over its top spot. Finally, Portfolio.com's Felix Salmon likes the idea of a joint bid for Yahoo from Microsoft and News Corp.: "The bits of Yahoo which Microsoft doesn't want ... are precisely the bits which Murdoch would love."
Quick Takes for Investors
• Gold bulls are convinced the pullback is over and it's time to capitalize on the next leg up. Here are ideas from Michael Kosares, Money Morning's Martin Hutchinson, and Jason Hamlin.
• Hedge fund manager Amit Chokshi is short the stock of online travel agency Priceline -- he explains why in rigorous detail. See disputing views on this stock from Stephen Sinclair and Sramana Mitra.
• Searching for a building block for your portfolio? Fund manger Roger Nusbaum tracks Johnson & Johnson's strong price record and remarks, "There are companies that you can buy that will rarely be what's 'hot,' but will deliver to your ultimate goal: having enough money when you need it."
• Steve Waldman believes central banks have become downright dangerous, but that the size of the U.S. Fed's balance sheet will limit the public's losses.

















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