Friday, July 4, 2008, 2:54AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed for Independence Day.
Following Microsoft's withdrawal of its takeover bid for Yahoo, market bloggers considered what's next for the two tech giants. Is the deal really dead? If so, how can Microsoft compete with Google online, and what does the future hold for Yahoo?
• If you weren't reading blogs as this story developed, you were consuming old, dry news. In particular, AllThingsD's Kara Swisher was way ahead of the mainstream media in coverage of the Microsoft/Yahoo breakup. The latest from Swisher: Rumors of Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang's dethroning, she believes, are greatly exaggerated.
• In the end, Microsoft shied away from its Yahoo courtship, says portfolio manager Bob Lang. "It seems to be the pattern for this Internet giant, to be jilted at the altar." At one time, Yahoo "had the gold, the kingdom and the people," but "no leadership or management with enough foresight to carry their precious properties to unreachable heights... Clearly Yahoo! has a future, as clouded as it may seem... but the execution of the company has been disappointing."
• Paul Kedrosky: "This has been a risky and poorly managed affair from end-to-end. Both CEOs deserve immense blame -- Ballmer for vacillating; Yang for running a public company without the foremost regard for shareholders -- and they are likely to be the two people who suffer the most indignities (including possible termination) over the coming weeks and months."
• Perhaps Yang is the one to blame, says Tim Sweeney. Yang presumably received good advice. "The question is, did he take it? No, Microsoft had a lot of money, and Jerry simply wanted more of it. He failed to realize when he had a good deal and when he should stop negotiating."
• Now that Yahoo has caved, Microsoft will buy it for $34, right? "Not so fast," says Henry Blodget. Other options for Microsoft here? Erick Schonfeld, co-editor of TechCrunch, believes going after AOL "is an obvious choice. And AOL isn't exactly hitting on all cylinders right now, so it could be a much cheaper, cleaner purchase." Schonfeld's colleague Michael Arrington believes that "Microsoft still very much wants Yahoo, they're just trying really, really hard to make it look like they don't."
Time to Start Riding a Bike?
As oil rose to over $125 a barrel this week, bloggers considered how the inflated price affects the economy at large.
• Trader Mark says he isn't surprised by the price spike: "I say this almost every week -- we are in a global competition for resources. We will rot in our own stew if we don't start figuring these things out."
• Why fret? University of Michigan economist Mark Price notes that gas prices in the U.S. are still downright cheap by global standards, and that America's current energy-efficient economy can handle oil at these levels. Kedrosky points to a new Factset report that suggests we're in an oil bubble that may soon burst.
• Portfolio.com's Felix Salmon notes the impact of high oil prices on inflation: "No one's going to mind if the price of Hamptons mansions or Andy Warhols or bottles of 1982 Le Pin goes up a lot. But everybody needs to eat, and, in the U.S., a majority of people need to drive, if they're going to be economically productive.... if you look at where the CPI is now, and then you ask where economists thought it would be if oil reached $120 a barrel, I think we're probably doing pretty well. Although maybe that just means there's more food and energy inflation to come."
• While the proposed "gas tax holiday" for this summer may garner some votes for two of our three presidential candidates who support it, University of Wisconsin professor Menzie Chinn questions the fundamental logic behind it. Chinn's colleague at the fine Econbrowser blog, James Hamilton, adds: "Proponents of a gasoline tax cut have an important task explaining where the necessary additional gasoline supply will come from."
• It's not just gas, says David Merkel. Rising energy prices pinch in terms of summer travel, pricing/portions in restaurants, or the general rise in food costs. At the same time, equity prices haven't backed off on account of record oil prices, notes financial professional Bill Cara. Cara believes the "talking heads" who are discussing the prospects of $200 oil are engaging in "irresponsible chatter or paid infomercial -- take your pick." But "whenever anybody says that the U.S. economy can grow through further spikes in crude oil prices, I disagree. In effect, the tax rebates in the U.S. will just go to paying the higher cost at the fuel pumps for a few months. Who wins by that other than the already booming oil companies?"
Woodstock for Capitalists
Tens of thousands of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders flocked to Omaha this past weekend for the company's annual gathering, where Warren Buffett and partner Charlie Munger traditionally answer any question thrown their way -- about the U.S. dollar, subprime mortgages, bond insurance, or the meaning of life.
• Peter Boodell provides the closest thing to a transcript you'll find, as no recording devices are permitted into the arena.
• Some investment ideas from Buffett: Canada's currency is likely to outperform the U.S. dollar, most individual investors are better off skipping Berkshire stock and buying index funds instead, and ongoing opportunities in Europe and bond insurance.
• Andrew Clavell takes a close look at Berkshire's long-dated put option sales on major world equities indexes, and suggests what would appear to be a more profitable strategy.
• Michael Fitzsimmons compares Buffett favorably with Harry S. Truman, but wonders why Berkshire is now investing in Wrigley, the gum company. Fitzsimmons thinks Buffett would have done better for Berkshire by increasing his stake in energy: "Buffett needs to get back to his peak-oil-friendly investments before I'll jump into Berkshire."
Investment Ideas
• Stocks: At the Value Investing Congress West this week, hedge fund managers shared some of their stock picks -- here, for example, is the case for American Express stock from Ken Stein of Spencer Capital.
• Global: James Picerno is taking a long, hard look at emerging market equities: "If we consider growth opportunities, the emerging markets don't look too shabby after all. In fact, they look quite a bit better than the outlook for the developed world. All of which implies that an exposure to emerging markets is warranted, even if yields are uninspiring."
• Precious metals: U.S. investors will soon have the ability to easily invest in platinum, reports Index Universe. Money Morning posits that gold is the best safe haven in the current environment of increasing oil prices, soaring food, commodity prices, and a plummeting greenback: "Gold may be down from its high, but it's not out."
And, finally, just for the fun of it: Ten Really Annoying Things about CNBC.

















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