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Ben Stein How Not to Ruin Your Life

Ben Stein, How Not to Ruin Your Life

Bursting the Economic-Fear Bubble

by Ben Stein

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Posted on Thursday, December 20, 2007, 12:00AM

"It's all relative." You've probably heard this before, and it's true of everything except right and wrong.

But it's especially true of economics, and it's doubly true of all the recent scare-talk about the economy.

Simply put, the media and the short-sellers on Wall Street are trying to scare us into having a recession. Since the nice people who read this have some interest in facts and figures, here are a few reasons why things aren't so bad.

Heavy Labor

First, the housing correction.

Now, it's true that we're having a very large housing correction. It may be the sharpest fall-off in housing starts as a percentage of the prior peak that there's ever been in the postwar era.

But housing is only about 5 percent of the economy at most. If it falls by half or a third, that's a big drop. In an economy like ours, though, where there was a severe labor shortage before the housing correction, the labor shortfall can be readily absorbed by other sectors, and it is.

Real unemployment has barely budged since the housing correction began more than a year ago. It will probably rise, but exports are shooting up so fast because of the weak dollar that overall unemployment may not rise by much at all. (It's currently at 4.7 percent of all workers, but barely 2 percent of full-time breadwinners.)

House of Cards

Second, there's the subprime "meltdown," as the papers like to call it.

This is a genuine problem. Unwary buyers were sold mortgages they couldn't pay for, and are now in trouble despite the president's new mortgage-rate-increase moratorium. And extremely unscrupulous people sold immense bundles of precarious mortgages to institutional buyers who didn't know what they were buying. In some sad cases, the investment banks that sold the mortgage bundles were selling similar instruments short even as they sold the bundles to the innocent.

That's a major moral problem, and the magnitude of loss because of defaults on the mortgages seems immense. There may have been roughly $80 billion in losses so far (before liquidation of the collateral, which will greatly reduce the losses). There may be another $150 billion of losses out there, and maybe even another $200 billion.

Those numbers seem immense, and to you and me they are. But in the context of the U.S. economy, they're not large enough to do major damage unless the Federal Reserve Board makes serious mistakes. The total bank credit in this country as of October 2007 was about $9 trillion. That doesn't count credit from other sources such as bond issuance or foreign investment, which could easily bring the total to $30 trillion or more.

A loss of $50 billion, while immense to you or me or even Bill Gates, is barely one-half of 1 percent of bank credit in the United States. It's hardly more than one-tenth of 1 percent of total available credit. Even if the loss rose to $250 billion, it wouldn't even be 1 percent of available credit. And, again, this number will be greatly reduced upon sale of the collateral and recovery by the lenders.

Crude Speculation

Next, there's the price of oil, and how it'll drive us all into an early grave.

It's true that the price of oil has risen stupendously in the last six years, and especially in the last two. But the cost of oil is less than 3 percent of the average family's budget. Even if it rises by 30 percent from its already lofty levels, the cost to the average family would be painful -- but not lethal. (And, of course, in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, it's a bonanza.)

Plus, the surge in wealth of the oil-exporting sheikdoms is largely recycled into investments here. This offsets the effects of the losses from subprime and other risky investments.

Currency Events

Finally, there's the fear of the falling dollar and what it will do to us.

Frankly, aside from the rising cost of oil (the other side of the equation of the falling dollar), the typical family buys little from abroad. Most of what we buy are services, such as government, medical, utilities, and amusements, and then food, and these are almost all produced domestically (unless you're a champagne or other wine snob).

The stock market isn't affected because American corporations' earnings are denominated in dollars, so it really doesn't matter how many dollars it takes to buy a Euro. Moreover, perhaps 40 percent of U.S. large-cap earnings come from overseas operations. These come in as Euros, pounds, or yen, and add up to far more dollars for U.S. corporations as the dollar falls.

A Sadder, Wiser Future

I don't want to be Pollyanna here. There are real problems with our economy, primarily inequality and a looming retirement crisis for baby boomers. But facts are facts, and life is about "how many" as well as "how."

The truth is that we passed through a far worse crisis in the tech collapse of 2000-2002, when roughly one-sixth of the nation's wealth was erased. Now, with the mortgage crisis and other problems, we're not even talking about a loss of one-tenth of 1 percent.

There's a lot to ruin in a nation. We'll get through this just fine. The road may be bumpy for a year or two, but we'll come up roses in a short time and will be ready to smile -- sadder but wiser.

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  • Tracy - Thursday, January 24, 2008, 7:48AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Ben Your statistic that oil is 3% of AVERAGE family income is missleading. Between heat and gasoline I spend about $4,500 a year on fuel. At 3% that would mean I make $300,000/ year & that's not true. Why don't you use median income and tell us the truth about fuel costs. You're a smart guy, but being slick doesn't become you. The high price of oil is just a sneaky way for the Administration to pay for the war; the Saudi's are financing it with profits from American taxpayers/consumers.

  • Turd Ferguson - Monday, January 21, 2008, 4:14PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Hopefully Ben didn't convince anyone to invest any money. He is just another cheerleader - everytime is a great to buy stocks (or you could wait a few more months and buy them at a huge discount???)

  • MichaelC - Saturday, January 12, 2008, 4:09PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Ben is correct. We live in a country where most are fed, clothed, have adequate housing, and have unlimited opportunitys if they choose to go after them. The "meltdown" is largly exaggerated, whereby virtually everyone who obtained a mortgage, knew "Exactly" what they were getting. Now they blame Bush, Greenspan, the banks, everyone else they can think of. It's your own fault people. Now they all run to Uncle Sam to save them. Give me a break...The economy is letting off a little steam, after almost unprecedented prosperity. A part of the normal cycle. Oil is still relatively cheap. The so called weak dollar will more than survive. My guess is 10 years from now, folks will still be sitting around complaining about how bad off we are, and how horrible the exisiting president of the time, is. No government or president is going to make you more prosperous, or happy. You have to do that yourself. Did you hear me? YOURSELF. And the USA will survive, and prosper as it has for over 2 centuries. So to sum it up, get up off your butts, and make some thing of yorselves.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, January 6, 2008, 10:38PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I thought Ben Stein was a lot smarter than this. How sad that he's duping the ignorant with this - well, BS. Educate yourself and be critical. Don't listen to this non-sense - find the facts for yourself. Nobody, especially not Ben Stein, should tell you what to "believe". If you do, you lose. Game over.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, January 6, 2008, 3:02PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Greenspan has laid the problems for the current shape of the economy. Too cheap credit has led to unwarranted asset inflation, be it real estate our companies. Many leveraged buy outs have been realized at high prices with lots of debt on the balance sheets of these companies. Defaults on LBO financing will be the next hit to the banking world, effecting the wider economy. Stock markets in 2008 will take a severe beating.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Saturday, January 5, 2008, 9:10PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    True, we will get through this crisis, Americans need to live within their means and not buy houses they cannot afford. Also, we need people to more independent in their lives, if life hands you a lemon, get some cups and sell some lemonade on the corner. We need to be more entrepreneurial, and less dependent on this corporations that could care less about the livelihood of the workers. That's why half the nation is poor, because we depend too much on fortune 500 companies.

  • Josh - Friday, January 4, 2008, 3:06PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    I wrote articles on the exact same thing 2 months ago. It's just hype by the media. Here is some additional reading: http://joshuasaunders.com/2007/11/13/why-you-shouldnt-be-concerned-about-the-economy-how-the-media-is-lying-to-you/ and http://joshuasaunders.com/2007/11/21/is-a-recession-coming-the-effects-of-the-housing-market/

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, January 4, 2008, 11:49AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    As usual, Mr. Stein is playing the cheerleader role. Does he realize that just one stock, Citigroup, has lost some $140 billion in market value since the summer? The losses to people who had some wealth before the mortgage melt down is significant. For people who have lost their homes and/or their jobs, the depression has already arrived. The rise in the price of oil and the decline in the dollar have a way of affecting most American households over time and not in a good way. Think of how much a first class stamp went up between 1973 and 1985 (8 cents to 22 cents). If you are an energy hog, commuting 50 miles each way to work in an SUV, be prepared for hard times.

  • bart - Friday, January 4, 2008, 9:10AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Good Morning Ben............ thefortuneteller2007 - Monday, December 24, 2007, 10:57AM ET........ Ben stein is the best writer yahoo has got but I think he is off the mark here....Consumer spending is going to take a hit.Unemployment is rising.No the world is not ending but a slowdown here at home will spread around the world.....Oil prices are sky high with no real relief in sight... You an drop low interest credit dollars out of helicopters,but fewer and fewer have the credit to scoop them up...The devalued dollar may in fact help large corps profits for a short spell...but when the slowdown spreads...

  • dompind - Thursday, January 3, 2008, 11:22PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    thefortuneteller2007 - Monday, December 24, 2007, 10:57AM ET........ Ben stein is the best writer yahoo has got but I think he is off the mark here....Consumer spending is going to take a hit.Unemployment is rising.No the world is not ending but a slowdown here at home will spread around the world.....Oil prices are sky high with no real relief in sight... You an drop low interest credit dollars out of helicopters,but fewer and fewer have the credit to scoop them up...The devalued dollar may in fact help large corps profits for a short spell...but when the slowdown spreads...

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, January 3, 2008, 11:22AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Thank you indeed for being down to earth and optimistic - but realistic as well. I do want to take courteous issue with redhead however on the point of America being "the greatest country at the greatest time in history." While America is, indeed, a very great country and hopefully always will be, lets not get into the "teenage" mindset that we are indestructable and can do it all alone. Remember: America is the worlds youngest superpower; other countries have been around for centuries and have HUGE battlescars to show for it. While we have made fantastic accomplishments there is a lot to learn from other world economies.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, January 2, 2008, 9:46PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    We can always count on Ben Stein for being the voice of reason.

  • redhed - Wednesday, January 2, 2008, 7:09PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Kudos to Ben for sticking it to the doom & gloomers with a little reality. There is always room to criticize but never forget that we live in the greatest country in the greatest time in history. Our economy is stronger and more dynamic that it has ever been. We can overcome whatever challenges are in front of us.

  • Mark - Wednesday, January 2, 2008, 5:47PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Ben Stein States Housing is only 5% of the economy where does that number come from ? Construction workers only ? How about Appliance manufacturers ? How about Surveyers ? How about Bank Mortage Brokers ? How about Real Estate Agents ? How about Utility Workers ? How about lumberjacks and miners ? and how about the money these people spent in other areas of the economy ie cars restaurants entertainment air travel vacations etc even wall st bonus's spent on retailers like Jos A Banks etc not related to housing think again BEN ! Now add in the tremendous equity that was taken out of homes that were gaining in price and that are now losing value where the mortage is higher than the value of the home and you can begin to see the true loss of housing to this economy ! Did I forget tax revnues and insurance on homes ? Wake up Ben and start posting reality don't fool your readers into losing theri remainign wealth by spouting how great everything is !

  • Mark - Wednesday, January 2, 2008, 5:39PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Moron Imbecile Shill Ben Stein said to buy Tol bros at 24 and that the sub prime disaster was overblown ! What an imbecile !!!!!

  • DAVID - Tuesday, January 1, 2008, 7:03PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Look this guy Mr Steins seems sensible and well meaning but he is completely out of touch with any reality in this country. Where do we start with his pollyanna rubbish. Well we can start with the facts: His assertion that most americans don't buy foreign goods is about a good a story as Santa Claus will come down your chimney. If your family shares in the american tradition of holiday gift giving. I challenge you to find more than one gift out of all the gifts shared in your household this christmas that is american made. Fact two: His comments make no mention of social security. Another fact for Mr Stein is that the biggest block of people in our population is about to assault the retirement scheme we call social security. Fact Three: the govt currently spends several billions per day in Iraq in a war with no clear goals and probably no end in sight anytime soon. Fact Four: the mortgage and credit crisis is not just caused by greedy immoral lenders but actually by everybody participating in that thing, the Old Greenspan used to call 'irrational exuberance." (like the dot com boom and bust there was was the same irrational exuburance...my guess is the next boom and bust will come in the Green energy fuels) Nobody forced these childlike buyers to take on mortgages they didn't qualify for or the child like instituitional investors to buy them in the secondary market. This is simply the greater fool syndrome. Everything is alright until the last people get caught with their pants down in broad daylight. Fact Five: we can parse out the percentages in any form we like but the 1% Mr stein is so attached has little basis in reality. With regard to the overall macro effect the (1)mortgage industry (2)construction housing industry and (3)housing related industries bubbles(furniture stores, appliances industry (4)credit crunch crises and (5)unemployment and (6)banking industry bubbles. By that last count thats at least 6 bubbles. a few of you out there could add more like the Oil bubble and the Dollar bubble so on. The bottom line is that the so called housing bubble is not operating in some self contained fantasy 1% of GDP. the real problem is that the economy operates all together; mortgages affect mortgage companies and affects foreclosures aand affects banks and affects the secondary market and liquidity which further affects confidence, which affects unemployment, and affects spending which affects peoples health and drains the welfare system and affecting taxes brought back in to the govt coffers affecting runs on banks. Foreclosed homes depresses neighborhood prices. This stuff is is literally exponential. It is never contained in the original percieved place in a capitalist economy. So on the one hand its good to think positive in capitalist economy, Mr Stein. On the hand it is foolhardy to stick your head in a one percent sand that could exponentially grow by the power of 2 with each multiplication. We can slow it down by all working together with the Fed, congress and Executive branch and slow down or avoid what could end being the perfect storm. Make no mistake we have a crisis in our hands that is much bigger than the Ben Steins of the world can recognize in their happy lil worlds. Like the dot com industry in its hey day housing crisis was subsidized by all of our outsize dreams partly brought on by the al-qaida attack and our correct Fed response to it along with the other factors not mentioned here. We want avoid sweeping things under the rug until we faced with a perfect storm of " all these 6 or 8 or more bubble factors hitting at once. God Bless America. Lets work together and solve this current far-reaching crisis and stop with the one percenters which signifies little of the reality as it will eventually play out if nothing is done or we become hippocratic moralizers about that which we know little of. Or that of which we all are sinners including all facets of the economy that each and every one is plugged into.

  • anna - Tuesday, January 1, 2008, 4:39PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Mr Stein forgot to mention we have the best politicians money can buy. Our Banking community is as crooked as a dogs hind leg, CEO's are cheating daily to boost their compensations and the investors is left carrying the losses. There are millions of baby boomers who are going to expect on time Social Security checks and proper medical care. The economy will take care of itself except for the above mentioned problems.

  • Rigo - Tuesday, January 1, 2008, 10:26AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Most everyone is busy carefully monitoring the pennies while bundles of $100 bills blow in the wind. The Internet Bubble=$7 trillion in losses. The value of the entire US stock market today= $18 trillion. All of China=$1.5 trillion. All of hong kong=$3 trillion All of Japan less than $5 trillion Value of oil in Iran at height of internet bubble=$1.6 trillion.Value today=$13 trillion Value of oil in Iraq at height of internet bubble= $1.3 Trillion. Value at height of US real estate bubble $12 trillion.*****(net gain $10.7 trillion) TOTAL VALUE ALL RESIDENTIAL Real Estate in America height of bubble= $27 trillion.Today $23 trillion***** Net loss $ 4 trillion. ********************* What happens when the OIL BUBBLE POPS(or God forbid,Keeps inflating???)

  • Wakefield - Friday, December 28, 2007, 5:57PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    Ben's right, it's not that bad. Personally, I rejoice that the media gets its kicks from reporting how the economy will experience a meltdown. This, in turn, will put a bearish influence on the markets and allow those who no better to purchase under-valued equities. Then once everyone starts to remember that the USA's economy is the best in the world, those equities will sky-rocket. Oh, the beauty of volatility.

  • Newton - Friday, December 28, 2007, 2:29AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    THERE IS SOME MERIT TO THIS ARTICLE, SOME ARE PLAUSIBLE, HOWEVER ITS IRRESPONSIBLE FOR MR. STEIN TO TAKE SUCH A POSITIVE STANCE ON THE ECONOMY. FEDS DON'T LOWER INTEREST RATES FOR NO REASON AND THE FALLING DOLLAR;ITS THE MOST TELLTALE SIGNS THAT THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH THE ECONOMY. REMEMBER MID YEAR 2000 WHEN EVERYONE SAID THE NASDAQ WOULD GO TO 8000 AND THE ENRON DEBACLE, ITS EASY FOR ALL THOSE JOURNALIST TO SAY "WE SURE GOT THAT WRONG". A MORE RESPONSIBLE APPROACH WOULD HAVE BEEN TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE STANCE IN THE 2008. WHATS 6 MONTHS TO A YEAR OF TONING DOWN YOUR PORTFOLIO. WE ALSO HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COMING UP IF IT IS PERCEIVED THAT A DEMOCRAT WILL GET IN WATCH OUT.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, December 28, 2007, 1:25AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    In all fairness to Mr. Stein, he didn't write the column himself but had someone else write it for him. Do you think he would write such tripe?

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, December 27, 2007, 2:11PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Well structured; good approach based on macroeconomic principles. Of course, as many have pointed out, there are the "cross-product" and higher-order effects when factors interact with one another over time, and it's difficult if not impossible to say what their impact will be. I believe Ben Stein is simply adding some balance to those journalists that rage on about how bad our economy is and how close it is to a melt-down.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, December 27, 2007, 11:40AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    fear is all consuming. The facts will bear that our economy, driven by media forced expectations, negitive in the current environment, will hold up after a brief fall off.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday, December 27, 2007, 9:31AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    I just read a few of the negative comments to Ben's Excellent article and just have to say the Media does a Great job keeping some people dumb and dumber. Ben nailed the situation, yes we need use caution in the coming year, but the sky is NOT falling!! All this recession doom and gloom will go the way of "man made" global warming which the media pushed so hard but is being debunked Daily now.

  • Whitkins - Wednesday, December 26, 2007, 9:50PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Ben is correct. Skip the media reports on how negative everything is. The end is not near for the economy. Unemployment is an important factor and its in better shape now than the 90's.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, December 26, 2007, 8:25PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Hey! American mass, just don't worry about any thing. Wall Street genius will have a solution for you guys: de-valuation of the US dollar. This is an arrow which will kill many birds: retirees you do not loose any bug, your number will be still the same, you do not need to cry. Debtors! you are the same, your numbers are still intact. Bond holders, paper holder you guys will still keep the number intact. The Congress will not need to dispute about Social Security and the baby boomers. Why you guys just do not think about that simple and easy. Do you guys know that in a recent art auction the smart, rich guys beat each other up millions of dollar for a Matiise or Picasso paintings etc. The smart and rich guys run for the dollar already. You and I, savers still hold them tight. Are we stupid? I think we are. Pleae think over about it and contribute your opinion.

  • NipsyJ - Wednesday, December 26, 2007, 8:20PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Ben says: "This is a genuine problem. Unwary buyers were sold mortgages they couldn't pay for, and are now in trouble despite the president's new mortgage-rate-increase moratorium." Ben - have you ever heard of BUYER BEWARE? Anyone force these "unwary buyers" to take the mortgages? Most of these "unwary buyers" knew they were in over their heads from the start when no income verification was needed, or they somehow qualified for a $500,000 mortgage with only $50,000 of income. Ben says: "And extremely unscrupulous people sold immense bundles of precarious mortgages to institutional buyers who didn't know what they were buying." Ben - again, have you ever heard of BUYER BEWARE? ARE YOU JOKING ME??? "institutional buyers who didn't know what they were buying"??? Aren't "institutional buyers" supposed to be the smart ones? We should feel sorry that they didn't investigate or understand what they were buying? Who would buy anything they didn't understand? Why would you buy it if it didn't understand it? Just makes you want to run out and invest your money with a mutual fund, money market fund, or your own company's pension plan - huh? If they don't know what they're buying, who would trust their money to them to invest? Wake up Ben - you're usually smarter than this.

  • Big Dog - Wednesday, December 26, 2007, 6:31PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    Ben- You must be kidding! I'm in the food industry and we import much of what we consume from Argentina, Chile, Mexico, etc.., and by the way, where do you purchase your American-made clothing? I won't even start on the collateral damage from the housing slowdown-you're just whistling past the graveyard on that one. I'm going to save this article, and check on it 1 year from now! (And no, I'm not short the market)

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday, December 26, 2007, 5:23PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 1/5

    I don't know where Ben got his information, but he seems to have been mislead about what effect the credit crisis means to our economy. We are still in the early stages of this meltdown, and the foreclosure tsunami is before us. People will be losing their homes, jobs, and BK's will be on the rise. The housing markets of the last few years were WAY more than "one-tenth of 1 percent." Let's see what he'll be saying by the end of summer next year. I doubt he'll be passing things off as a quick recovery.

  • Bling - Wednesday, December 26, 2007, 4:42PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    I think Stein underestimates the degree to which housing prices will fall and more importantly, the degree to which the fall will affect consumer spending. Considering that even the most prudent homeowners have 20-40% home equity, even a 10-15% drop in national housing prices will be lethal. Did anybody see the Case-Shiller numbers released today? . . . . .

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