Shop Early, Shop Smart

This year's early-bird holiday shoppers might do better than usual

Every year we hear the advice: Shop early, get it over with, buy before everything is picked over, avoid the crowds.

And it's good advice: Buy the gifts, stash them away, ship ground to save money, enjoy the rest of the holiday season without headaches. You'll miss a few last-minute bargains, but if they happen they'll become last minute holiday treats for yourself and your family.

Works every year. But this year I think it's different. The Wall Street disruptions made their way to Main Street, creating unique shop-early opportunities.

As usual, retailers ordered goods and built inventory during the summer. They weren't expecting a glorious holiday, but they also didn't expect the complete blowup in consumer spending and confidence that happened next.

So guess what? Even with cutbacks, retailers and distributors are still overstocked. But will they be the week before Christmas? I'm not so sure. Retailers, like the rest of the business supply chain, put the engine in reverse when the bottom fell out. Not only to avoid excess holiday inventory, but also because financing sources dried up.

So what does it mean?

• Look for the best bargains before Thanksgiving. The financial crisis monkey-wrench is being worked off now. Even Wal-Mart is offering big specials for this time of year.
• Bargains may last longer on complex products. It's easier to shut down supplies of the proverbial fruitcake than to delay production of complex products like computers or TVs. Watch carefully: If the bargains become fewer and farther between, it's time to act. And retailers may offer some clues -- don't be afraid to ask.

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• Look for blood in the streets. Circuit City just filed for bankruptcy, Mervyn's is going out of business altogether, and there are plenty of others.

  You may find some extreme deals here. And don't forget the traditional "overstock" retailers such as Ross and T.J. Maxx stores, plus online versions headed up by Overstock.com. A recent search on Overstock.com for "LCD TV" yielded over 200 entries.

• Expect fewer after-holiday bargains. Modern management practices allow retailers to turn around their supply chain "ships" around faster these days. So after-holiday shelves might be emptier than usual, but you'll still find some bargains. Remember, retailers will do what's necessary to turn inventory into precious cash.
• "Go Green" might be the year's best theme. It departs slightly from the main point, but this year might, more than ever, be the time to go green. That is, both kinds of green -- eco-friendly and pocketbook friendly. A new book just hitting the stores by my colleague and friend Peter Sander is worth a look: "Green Christmas: How to Have a Joyous and Eco-Friendly Holiday Season." For $7.95, it gives great tips on taking some of the material out of Christmas, reducing the environmental load, saving money, and returning the original spirit to the holiday.

Smart buyers do what smart business people do. They buy what they need, and they understand how economic forces shape the best deals.