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Economic Calendar Terms

Leading indicator

Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
1-6-1 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo 100-8914
+81-3-5253-2111

Japan's Composite index of leading economic indicators predicts the economy's performance in the coming six months.They are represented with the average of their 1995 values as 100. The leading index consists of the following components: - Index of producer's inventory ratio of finished goods (final demand goods); - Index of producer's inventory ratio of finished goods (producer goods for mining and manufacturing); - New job offers (excluding new school graduates); - New orders for machinery at constant prices (except for volatile orders); - Total floor area of new housing construction started; - Index of producer's shipment of durable consumer goods (percent change from the previous year); - Consumer confidence index; - Nikkei commodity price index (42 items) (percent change from the previous year); - Interest rate spread; - Stock prices (TOPIX) (percent change from the previous year); - Index of investment climate (manufacturing); - Index of business outlook judgement (all industries).