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  • Economic Calendar Terms

    US Lead indicators: change

    The Conference Board
    845 Third Avenue
    New York, NY 10022

    The Leading Indicator is a composite of prior indicators such as new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, stock prices, etc.Leading indicators have by their very nature, less than perfect historical recording and because of its components being known beforehand, are highly predictable. However they are used as a fairly good indicator of overall strength of country s economy. Leading Indicator is a summery measure designed to signal changes in the direction of aggregate economic activity. (Aggregate economic activity cannot be defined precisely, and no single time series measure it adequately; however, a varity of statistical series measure some of its major aspects). The index measure the average behavior of a group of economic time series that show similar timing at business cycle turns but represent widely differing activities or sector of the economy. Because the combination of prompt availability and reasonable accuracy is an especially importent requirement, only monthly series that are available with short lags and are not subject to large revisions are considered when selecting components of the leading indicator, because the components coverage is diversified with a minimum of duplication, leading indicator tend to be more reliable as cyclical indicator than any of the