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How Much Do You Need to Retire?

Note: This guide has been modified in response to reader feedback.

Uncertainty over the future of Social Security, longer life expectancy, and inflation all factor into how much you'll need to save for a comfortable retirement.

Before You Start

  • Assess your most recent retirement savings calculations and the assumptions you had in mind at the time.
  • Speak with your spouse or partner about the financial implications of your retirement plans.
  • Make a list of your likely sources of retirement income.
  • Take a fresh look at your retirement account statements.
1

How Much Do You Need to Retire?

Picturing yourself as a retiree may be hard if not impossible. But if you could envision those future years, you'd probably see a life full of activity and decades of health, happiness, and prosperity. No rocking chairs and lap shawls need apply.

The reality, however, is probably somewhere in between. The problem with the picture is that the pleasure and comfort of your later years depend, to an ever-increasing degree, on the actions you take today.

So many changing facets of the American workplace have made it more important than ever to take control of your financial future. By investing now with a long-term focus, you can greatly improve your chances of having a fulfilling retirement.

Americans used to count on a pension plus Social Security to get them through those "golden years." These days, people change jobs more often, rely on dual incomes, and manage their own retirement funds through defined contribution plans. By most estimates, you'll need between 60% and 80% of your final working years' income to maintain your lifestyle after retiring.

Sources of Retirement Income

0021.gif

This chart represents the income sources of American retirees.
Source: Social Security Administration, 2006.
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2

Saving Is the Key Component of Retirement Income

The accompanying pie chart shows the importance of saving now toward a retirement fund. Not only are Social Security benefits less significant, but the sums are diminishing and the age at which you can begin to receive benefits is higher. You can contact Social Security at 1-800-772-1213 to learn what you can expect in benefits, and when. Benefits are calculated on your earnings, with certain variable factors.

Alas, the responsibility for the bulk of your nest egg rests with you. Social Security represents approximately 39% of the typical retiree's income, according to the Social Security Administration.

Also, as you begin thinking about how much you'll need for a comfortable retirement, you may be startled to learn the impact of inflation. At an average inflation rate of 3%, your cost of living would double every 24 years. Your annual income will need to increase each year even during retirement in order to keep up with the gradual rise in prices of everyday goods.

You'll also have to consider the likelihood of increased medical costs and health insurance as you grow older. The average nursing home stay, for instance, now costs more than $74,000 a year and could rise to over $150,000 per year by 2030, assuming an annual inflation rate of 3%.
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3

Meeting Your Goals

Financial experts estimate that most people will need anywhere from 60% to 100% of annual pre-retirement income to live on each year after retirement. To find out how close you are to accumulating this amount, complete the exercise below.

  1. Estimate your last working year's salary. Multiply your current salary by the inflation factor from Table 1, based on the number of years you have until retirement. This represents the future value of your salary, assuming 3% annual inflation.

    Example: If you are currently making $40,000 and have 20 years until retirement, your formula is $40,000 x 1.81 = $72,400


  2. Determine the percentage of your last working year's salary that you expect to need for annual living expenses after retirement. If 100% seems high, consider that while you may be able to reduce some expenses, such as commuting costs, others, such as health care, may increase. Multiply the percentage of your last working year's salary that you expect to need by the amount in #1.

    Example: $72,400 x .80 = $57,920


  3. Estimate your future Social Security and retirement benefits. The best source for Social Security benefit projections is your annual Social Security statement (or one of the calculators from www.ssa.gov). If you don't have access to these, you can estimate your benefit using Table 2.

    a. From your Social Security Benefit Statement, multiply the monthly amount listed under "If you continue working until full retirement age") by 12, then multiply that figure by the inflation factor from Table 1.

    Example: If your benefit statement shows an estimated monthly benefit of $1,153 and you expect to continue working an additional 20 years, your formula is $1,153 x 12 x 1.81 = $25,043

    b. If you are using Table 2, take the number corresponding to your annual salary and years to retirement.

    Example: If you currently earn $40,000 and have 20 years to retirement, your estimated benefit would be $25,000


  4. Subtract your Social Security benefits and other retirement benefits from the amount calculated in #2. This will give you an estimate of how much income from your personal assets you are likely to need each year in retirement.

    Example: $57,920 - $25,000 = $32,920


  5. Estimate the total amount that you will need in retirement accounts (such as 401(k) plans and IRAs) and personal savings. To determine this amount, multiply 19.3 by the annual amount you calculated in #4. This answer represents the amount of savings you are likely to need to last 28 years, assuming a 3% annual inflation rate and a 6% annual investment return during retirement. A healthy, 65-year-old male has a 10% chance of living longer than 28 years.

    Example: $32,920 x 19.3 = $635,356


  6. Enter the amount of your current savings and investments and multiply it by the growth factor from the accompanying table. This is the amount that your savings would likely be worth by the time you reach retirement, assuming an 8% annual investment return prior to retirement compounded annually.

    Example: $30,000 (account balance) x 4.66 (growth factor for 20 years until retirement) = $139,800


  7. If line 5 is larger than line 6, congratulations! You are likely on your way to meeting your retirement savings goal. Keep saving! If line 6 is larger than line 5, subtract line 5 from line 6. Enter that amount here. This is the additional amount you'll need.

    Example: $635,356 - $139,800 = $495,556


  8. Divide #7 by the multiplier in Table 1 that corresponds to the number of years until your retirement. The multiplier represents how large your savings are likely to grow based on your annual contribution to qualified retirement accounts. The result is the approximate amount you may want to set aside each year.

    Example: $495,556 / 49.42 = $10,027

Table 1 - Factors
Years Until Retirement Inflation Factor Growth Factor Multiplier
5 1.16 1.47 6.34
10 1.34 2.16 15.65
15 1.56 3.17 29.32
20 1.81 4.66 49.42
25 2.09 6.85 78.95
30 2.43 10.06 122.35
35 2.81 14.79 186.10
40 3.26 21.72 279.78
Table 2 - Social Security Income
Years to Retirement
Current Salary 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
$20,000 29,500 27,000 25,000 22,500 20,500 19,000 17,500 16,000
30,000 32,500 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 21,000 19,000 17,500
40,000 35,500 32,500 30,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000
50,000 38,500 35,500 32,500 29,500 27,000 25,000 22,500 21,000
60,000 41,500 38,000 35,000 32,000 29,000 26,500 24,500 22,500
70,000 44,500 41,000 37,500 34,000 31,000 28,500 26,000 24,000
80,000 47,500 43,500 40,000 36,500 33,500 30,500 28,000 25,500
90,000 50,500 46,500 42,500 39,000 35,500 32,500 29,500 27,500
97,500+ 53,000 48,500 44,500 40,500 37,000 34,000 31,000 28,500

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4

Pensions, Social Security, and Other Allies

Traditional pensions are estimated to supply less than 19% of retirement needs, according to the Social Security Administration (2004; most recent report published).

Add that to the 39% or so a year you might expect from Social Security, and you'll probably still fall far short of your goal. A radically reduced standard of living for a quarter century or more is hardly the stuff "golden age" dreams are made of.

Fortunately, you have some allies. First is the power of compounding, which takes advantage of time. Tax deferral is another ally. Using investment vehicles such as 401(k) plans or individual retirement accounts (IRAs), you can put off paying taxes on your earnings until you are retired and potentially in a lower tax bracket. Meanwhile, your contributions may be pretax or tax deductible, helping reduce current tax bills.

For example, an investment of $10,000 would grow to more than $100,000 after 30 years, at an annual return of 8%, if all the returns were reinvested and the account grew tax deferred. As with all hypotheticals, this example does not represent the performance of any specific investment and the earnings would be subject to taxation upon withdrawal at then-current rates and subject to penalties for early withdrawal.

The more time you have until retirement, the more fortunate you may be. Delaying just months -- never mind years -- can significantly reduce your results. Consider this example: Jane begins investing $100 a month in her employer-sponsored 401(k) plan when she's 25. Mark does the same -- beginning when he's 35. Assuming a 9% annual rate of return compounded monthly, when Mark retires at 65, he'll have $183,074. Jane will have $468,132.

While this is only a hypothetical and there are no guarantees any investment will provide the same results, you can see the remarkable difference starting early can potentially make.

By starting early, investing systematically, and benefiting from the potential of compounding and tax deferral, you may pack a lot more punch into your portfolio.

Another advantage of today's retirement planning options is that you can control how your money is invested.

Investment plans need to be customized because different people have different degrees of risk they will accept as well as varying time frames they intend to hold their investments. A tailor-made portfolio can be diversified to take these factors into account. It's a wise idea to consult a professional financial advisor for complete information.
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Summary

  • The rising cost of living means you need to plan on an annual retirement income that could be substantially higher than what you spend now.
  • You may have higher expenses in some areas, such as medical care, but lower expenses in others. You can estimate your "personal inflation rate" by looking at your expected living costs in retirement.
  • You may need between 60% and 80% of your final working years' salary.
  • Retirement income may be made up of pension benefits, Social Security benefits, personal savings and investments, and income from part-time work.
  • Your financial advisor can help you develop an estimate of your needs and a plan to help you accumulate a retirement fund to provide income you'll need.

Checklist

  • Review your household budget to find ways you can spend less and set aside more for the future.
  • Contribute as much as possible to your retirement accounts -- particularly if your employer makes "matching" contributions.
  • Recalculate your retirement savings goals several times, using different assumptions about the future each time, to gain insights about your potential financial outlook.
  • Rebalance and diversify your investment assets if necessary.

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44 Comments

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  • Yahoo! Finance User - Saturday, January 20, 2007, 3:45PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    The $729,254 savings requirement to cover $57,920 annual expenses appears too low. Using the assumed 3% inflation of expenses, then $117,739 is required after 25 years of retirement. To meet this requirement at the assumed growth rate of 5%, one needs

  • __A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday, February 26, 2007, 6:54PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    There is always so much talk about setting yourself up for retirement, as if retiring means never making another dime in your life and depending uopn dividends or interest for your livlihood. I prefer to think in terms of creating multiple streams of income, which includes interest and dividend income, but may also include cashflow from real estate owned, royalties from intellectual property, etc. Read some books by Robert Allen and Mike Kiyosaki. Retirement does not have to mean poverty. For more info on this subject, you may want to check out "The 17 Principles of Creating Wealth," by Phillip Collinsworth. Available at Amazon.

  • gsalem3633 - Sunday, March 25, 2007, 12:23PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 4/5

    I think that this article is a very conservative estimate of what one will need.

  • Yahoo! Finance User - Friday, April 6, 2007, 9:01AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Here is the problem with these types of things. Their hypo basically takes someone making $40k/yr and tells them they need to start saving over $20k a year for retirement. Who can do this? these types of calculators always use very conservative numbers (80% of income and only a 5% return) to always make it look impossible to save enough for retirement. I think they are pushed by the financial industry to scare people into running to financial planners.

  • Art - Friday, April 6, 2007, 10:09AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    I think that you should base your needed retirement cash flow on expected expenses rather than a % of your last working year's salary. Let's say you are making $150K a year, but saving 50% of that. Why would you need 60% to 80% [$90K to $120K] to live on if you've been doing fine at $75K. I'd add up all expected expenses, factor in inflation, and base my # on that.

Showing comments 1-5 of 44Next >>

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