Considering Al Mann holds a considerable amount of shares approx.45% if memory serves me correctly the share pool of which shorts will be able to cover from makes the difference between MNKD and JAZZ share count considerably less in that respect so $58 could prove to be a conservative figure. Whatever pps turns out to be should afreeza sales blow out est it will be much more than $7 regardless of wether my speculative scenario transpires or not. At a loss of $72m for every $1 mnkd goes up shorts will be toast if afreeza outperforms there expectationsand they must be sweating the fact Sanofi is at the helm.
I believe the reason why the FDA took so long in approving Afrezza is that they knew someday there would be a flood of drugs on the technosphere platform. It is my opinion that future drug approvals on that platform won't take nearly as long as Afrezza to be approved.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
MNKD could see around $58 on a major short squeeze should 2015 1st and 2nd qrt revs come in strong due to diabetics stirring up a big social media buzz and insulin users demand their doctors to prescribe it. I come to $58 based on Jazz 52 wk high of $176 and back in 2008 Porche announced it would increase their stake in Volkswagen and caused biggest short squeeze in history causing shares of Volkwagen to go up 5 x from $210 eu to over $1000 eu in 2 days. I think if 1st qrt revs come in at $250m this would cause such a squeeze especially if SNY were to announce taking a large stake and buy a considerable amount of MNKD shares which if sales beat their expectations could happen or an outright buyout offer could transpire and a bidding war take place between SnY, LLY and NVO possibly others.
Possible bidding war aside lets assume mnkd is back to $11 in anticipation of blow out numbers and revs crush consensus est ..MNKD will likely have about 7 x as many shares as Jazz by then however Jazz never had the enormous short interest MNKD has and even now at $157 Jazz short interest is only a little over 3% almost 10 x less than MNKD percentage wise so the much larger share count likely will be countered by the much larger short interest. MNKD 35% share in profit $58 is 1/3 of Jazz 52 wk high, in this scenario projected future profits 4 to 5 yrs out based on $250m 1st qrt which should cause panic amongst shorts could catapult PPS to over 5x $11 with MNKD replacing Volkswagen as largest short squeeze in history. Again if SNY decided to make a Porche type move they could make enough to pay the $775 milestone payment which inevitably would kick in sooner than they anticipated. A $155m or more investment in MNKD shares with option on more,considering SNY has over $5b in cash wouldn't be to hard to justify should sales of Afreeza skyrocket. At $58 a share with shorts losing $72m for every $1 MNKD goes up would result in billions in loses. Diabetics need to get on FB ASAP..
Do you really think this place is the forum for your question? I suspect you are investor frustrated....that such a grand DM changing product is over looked to date as an equity cash cow. Lots of us are probably as dumb founded as you are. No answer here. Know you are just venting. Hope you have a good weekend.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Use Gillette model but negotiate reimbursements from insurance companies for inhalers but make them low cost. make margins on cartridges...