I agree he's a hater, but his assessment is correct. He just gets a little emotional when he states it.
You have always been a hater and logic does not apply to your posts. The only logical explanation would be that you were fired from employment at CPI and you are being vindictive. Unfortunately a hater with no logic is too easy to see through. To everyone else, sorry for breaking my own rule and replying to a hater.
And to think on August 25 when the recently created alias of Frog4face (lol CPI employee) was touting this company and lambasting another poster that rightfully pointed out the stock has been a horrible performer CPI was trading at $10.14 that very day. Magically this new yahoo alias Frog4face that touted CPI on August 25th received 6 yes 6 thumbs up, while the poster that wrote the truth received an abundance of thumbs down immediately.
Well the moral of the story is that you can post lies and use sock puppets to give yourself 6 thumbs up it does not help. Self rating yourself can not over come how Wall Street views this stock. August 25th $10.14 today $8.66. You can not disguise a failing company or an incompetent CEO.
Just another fact that can be verified by reading the post date and the trading prices.
Advice which has been correct for years: Strong Avoid like the plague
Sentiment: Strong Sell
You seem to have a negative spin for everything. 1) they will generate positive cash over the second half of the year. 2) Margins are not shrinking. They are shipping out A10 work at no profit, as announced. All other current work is at higher gross margins. Yes this distorts the GM downward but the trend of all other/new business is very positive for gross margin. The backlog and "funded" backlog is at a record $140M. The financial organization funding CVU has no problem or it would have been disclosed. An Insider who bought shares in the past, will have no problem if a new contract is announced at this date or in the near future. I have stepped up and invested in the shares of CVU.
Unfortunately, that's not how it works (your case closed comment). You can SAY it's not a problem, but there would be others who might strongly disagree with you. And if one person raised a stink with the SEC (and that's all it tales to open up an investigation), it create huge problems for him. That said, I don't think there will ne an issue, because I stand by my OPINION that there won't be one.
With that said, thanks frog for an actual dialogue. It's fine if we agree to disagree. At least we did it civilly. And I agree with you that investors look forward, not backward. I'm just still not convinced that forward is that exciting. We can't disagree on this year's EPS, because we both have seen the same projection. However, I find it disappointing, you find it promising. I'm not excited about increased revenues this year or next because margins continue to shrink, as does profitability. You see the revenues increasing as a positive. I have a REAL problem with how they burn through cash (and ALWAYS have, under ALL CEOs), and you don't. And be careful, because the "record backlog" is unfunded, so there's no guarantee that it will ever materialize. So we'll watch to see what happens, as you said. It will be interesting!
If CVU gets the largest contract ever this week, I see no exposure for the president because he didn't know about it before it was issued.
How do I know he didn't know about it? Because he didn't announce it.
I think that's case closed.
CI, Still could not disagree with you more. During the bid process, contract awards are purposely not known or announced until they actually happen. Your spin about trading based upon that the company knows that they will not receive any awards for 90 days or more, is nothing more than your opinion and certainly has no bearing upon insider trading.
I truly understand how this company reports with percentage of completion accounting, and the institutions that are financing CVU do as well. CVU will have a strong 2nd half based upon shipments as they work off their record backlog. Looking forward is how most institutions invest in companies, and you will see good EPS appreciation from here. It will be interesting to compare notes with you in 6 months.
Because I would think he would know what is in his bid pipeline, I would think he knows when award on those bids might be made, and if he knew ANTHING was imminent, I don't believe he would have exposed himself like that. So because of that, IT IS MY VERY STRONG OPINION that based on the rules of insider trading, we will not see any major awards for a long time.
So let's see what happens.
The key word is " certainty". Your post implied that he KNEW there were no more contacts to be awarded for 90 days. I have no idea how he could ever know such a thing, but if he did, it would be a material event and he must announce it.
You were so sure that his buying implied no more contracts for 90 days. How could he know such a thing ?
I'm trying to have a rational dialogue with both of you, as I respect your opinions even if they differ from mine. But your latest discussion regarding the publication of "no news" absolutely left me stunned!
There is NO requirement in the world for a company to put out a press release to say that they don't think they're winning any contracts in the foreseeable future. NONE. That is not considered a material event. But, if the company was close to winning a contract, had been told that they were the victor in a bid, or were anticipating an award (told by the potential customer that an award would be made on such and such a date), the CEO would not be buying stock with that knowledge. He'd be required to wait until that information was made public. Otherwise, he would have traded having knowledge that the rest of the world did not.
Again, it is my belief that both the attorneys and the CEO himself are smarter than that, and therefore felt it was ok for him to buy shares. If that's so, it's not a stretch to assume then that there won't be any major contract awards being announced in the near future.
But under no conditions is the fact that I might be right, and they don't think they're winning anything for quite a while, a reportable event. That's just plain silly. It's just like when they (or any company) don't announce that they DIDN'T win a bid. They never do that. It would only be reportable if they had already told us they WERE winning it, and then for some reason, they didn't get it. And that isn't happening here.
Yes, CI's post didn't make sense to me, so I figured he was either drunk or daft. I incorrectly guessed drunk.
buxgr3, Could not agree with you more. If there were no awards for sure, in the next 90 days, it would HAVE to be announced. It won't be, because an award would be considered a future event and the entity, corporation, or government are not that stupid to make individuals aware of a major event before it is announced. This is not the 1980's. I guess an individual who is short or looking for a stock to decline will try to spin on just about anything.
One of the problems with your post is that if he had certainty that there would be no awards for 90 days, this is a material fact and must be announced. The poster's points are correct in my opinion.
curious, I disagree with you extremely...... If an officer of a company buys stock in the company he works for and makes full disclosure, which he did, of all known events there is certainly no chance that the SEC can look for trading on inside information. All officers, board members, and other company employees are governed by the same rules when it comes to insider trading. There are no separate set of rules for a CEO. There is no exposure when you make full disclosure of known events. The company has many millions of bids outstanding and the event of winning one or more of these bids is mutually exclusive of purchasing shares of stock in the past. Your assumption that there are no major bids coming in the near future is just what it is: YOUR ASSUMPTION. So you don't like this stock. I happen to think CVU is a fine investment and I have put my money where my mouth is. Should be an interesting ride for the next year and a half, at least. I expect the company to fall at least in the projected ranges of the outside analysts. If I am wrong, I will admit it.
I will also explain the company's cash flow to you at a later date.
Please read what I posted. I absolutely did NOT accuse the insider of buying on insider knowledge. I have no way of even making that accusation! What I did say was that the insider trading rules are pretty clear, and for the CEO they are even clearer. If something big happens soon, he will be under intense scrutiny because of his purchase. Since I don't believe that he would expose himself to that, my actual assumption, for what it is worth, is that nothing big WILL happen for quite a while, and he knows that. Why else would he expose himself like this?
And the record company backlog is not funded, so keep that in mind. That number includes options, and potential values, and is not firm business.
Yes, I believe 10 is a fair multiple for a company that saw its highest earnings year three or four years ago, that has a shrinking gross margin, and has always had severe cash flow problems. My point is that the estimates for this year and next (and the company hasn't said anything yet about 2016) are not exciting, and don't come close to approaching the years under different leadership.
But I appreciate you sharing your reasoning. I'm not saying it's wrong, just that I see it differently.
Again, I will not respond and recommend no one else respond to the haters. I based my purchase of CVU last month based upon several factors. I always made out better with my investment, when a stock is beaten down or appears that way from others and has good prospects GOING FORWARD, not looking backward. CVU booked $24.2MM in new orders in the first half of 2015 compared to $19.2MM in the first half of 2014. The company backlog is $446.6MM at June 30, 2015. This is a record and up more than 10% over the same period a year earlier. 2015 looks like it will be a record for revenue. I fully understand the percentage of completion accounting for revenue recognition, and so do the organizations that are financing the CVU operations. Another poster believes that CVU should only receive a multiple of 10 x earnings per share. The research that I have seen for this stock and others in this industry indicate multiple of 16-18 range. I believe that CVU will execute on the guidance that they have put out, and the analyst estimates for this year and next. If the company does not execute, I don't feel there is any downside. If the company does execute, I will be that much closer to retirement. There are many people who post that they made so much on a particular stock or investment, after the event. I take responsibility and post before it happens and if I am wrong will admit it. I will also take credit and smile a lot if my logic and analysis proves correct. I fully understand the circumstances of the insider purchase of shares on the open market and commend that individual for investing his capital in CVU. If the company receives any more major orders this year, after this individual's purchase, it will be result of all of the hard work and experience of the company putting out a quality product. Suggesting that an officer is buying shares based upon inside information, in this circumstance is quite silly.
Hey buzgz3? Do you have an intelligent answer? Is the person who told me this wrong? Are there no buying plans that he could have used? If he announces a new major contract award tomorrow, doesn't that open him up to scrutiny? As one poster said, and rightly so, he disclosed everything in the quarterly earnings, so there "shouldn't be" anything big or exciting coming. If he knows about something, and it happens, then he DIDN'T disclose everything, did he? And he profited off of it. Isn't that the definition of insider trading?
But I'm not even getting close to accusing him of that. I would think that the lawyers at CPI are much smarter than that, and there would be no way they'd let him buy stock if an award was imminent. Therefore, I stick to my theory that says that all of this means, there's nothing coming down the pike for a good three months or so. Now how does that make me drunk for what I posted?
At this moment, and of course it could change, it would appear that 2015 will be CPI's worst award year in the last five to seven years. Again, that could all change in the last six weeks of the year, but as of right now, it's not looking good.
Now the rest of you, get your thumbs down button working. Sheep.
frog4face, thank you for explaining your reasoning. I for one, don't have a grudge. I started posting by asking ANYONE to show me why this is a good stock. My analysis said that this stock was overpriced and has some severe cash flow issues. Not one person would engage in an intelligent conversation about it. All they've done is post anonymous thumbs down. You have stepped up and presented an opinion. which is all I was looking for. I can't speak for the rest of the "negative" posters, but my negativity is based on those points.
So I will then ask you, what about this year's estimates and possibly next year's projections have you excited. If they hit this year's targets. the eps will fall between $0.81 and $0.93. I don't see how that is exciting, or justifies a multiple of more than 10 time. So that should yield a stock price of $8.10 to $9.30. What do you see differently?
Revenues seem to be going up, but gross margins and cash flow are going in the other direction, are they not? Just look at the historical numbers. This will be their worst operating gross margin year as far back as I could research.
So, please, I welcome your differing opinion, but could you tell me what things YOU see that make you feel that way? As one poster says all the time, the facts are the facts. And the facts that I see say something very different about this stock and this company.
rightstuff, I have only owned CVU since the end of July, so I am sorry if you have a different time frame. If the analyst estimates are anywhere near correct for this year and next, this will be even better than my LMT position over the past two years. I have always believed that the movement of any stock is about the future, not the past. If CVU executes close or better than forecast, this will be a home run. If they do not execute over the next year and a half, we will spin our wheels in this price range. Time will tell if my investment here is correct, or you are correct.