Remember - a lot of what was achieved in the past was due to THE GUBERMENT giving them the gravy - when those contracts were flowing it was an easy gig but when that started to dry up management had no answers and was why I hammered them on broadening out their focus. They have always been pretty anti-shareholder so it would be a huge sign if they would step up and BUY ON THE OPEN MARKET and not just take options for under achievement. Management is suspect and I will leave it at that. If they do get some broader contracts in the next month the stock will react just as it may drop if they lose the small business issue being addressed now. Good luck and you have the channel right on as far as the movement of the stock with 16 the very upper level and only for a short time. Boolean
Thank you, Boolean. Both posts contained well thought out answers. And as a former holder, I do agree that there is a time when I would jump back in, simply because the stock itself has a proven track record of falling into the $8.00's only to run back up to $12, $14, $16. I just didn't see what the hyping was for at this point in time, and couldn't get anyone on this board to engage in an intelligent conversation about it. I appreciate that you did.
And I agree 100% with you about management and the board buying shares. While I have no issue with options being used as compensation for the board, and management being given shares as part of their bonus packages, it concerns me that a new CEO wouldn't have purchased 10,000 shares to show the investment community that he believes in his own ability to grow and manage the company. If you look at the Form 4's, you'll see that if anyone reading these posts owns more than 7,100 shares, they have more skin in the game than the CEO! How is anyone comfortable with that? And lastly, they've added two new board members in the last couple of years, and neither one of them has purchased even one share. There's just no commitment from anyone in leadership.
This is a nice little company that has accomplished some amazing things in the past, but I don't see where we can be confident that it will continue. At least not yet.
if some of these bigger contracts come thru guidance will accelerate forward but there are also costs that will increase so what comes to the bottom line is still the unknown. again - if management was strong then you would not be so concerned but them being a weak link you have to be concerned and temper your enthusiasm. IF they would just come out and BUY SHARES ON THE OPEN MARKET when they have a chance instead of constantly SELLING THE GRAVY investors would feel a lot better. Management won't do it though as they appear to have no confidence in their ability to manage this company so the free money is the one they TAKE from shareholders. Boolean
NOT SAYING BULLISH YET -- looking at 2015. The stock may well fall more here especially with the SBA decision pending and the 53 million award overhanging them. No - management is a very very weak link here and that makes it tough to buy. That they are moving more into commercial as I have screamed at them to do is positive albeit late. That they refuse to buy shares on the open market shows their contempt for shareholders and a lack of belief in their own rhetoric. They take the gravy money in options and then sell them when they can - total top 1% belief system. Now my key indicators though are moving very positive and they may move into full bullish in the coming weeks. We shall see. Again commercial growth should spur increased revenues but I need to see management show they have the skill set to get it done.
They need to sell the company but they won't until they secure their gravy or can make deal that does that. Remember the CFO was an M&A guy in the past and this is company that clearly needs to be SOLD. The market has been on fire and all this management can do is take that fire and burn down the stock price. Without the freebies from the guberment they are lost BUT showing some movement into commercial.....commercial should show strong numbers so if they can start to get some of that gravy then we will be fine. What I want is for SOME BIG MONEY TO COME IN AND PUSH MANAGEMENT TO MANAGE or to be removed. I send out requests for that but to date no takers.......it is a small company.
So bottom line I would wait to see if it drops thru year end - maybe the insiders had some word on the SBA decision and had family sell at the end of the day as it took a hit then. Who knows. I may do some more DD later and get back to you but I right here and now there really is no reason to jump in.........YET. Boolean
Boolean, I am asking you not to give me a smart #$%$ answer, but to truly make me understand why you feel this way. I'm getting all kinds of cr*p about my postings, but the reality is, I'm trying to see if there is truly a reason to invest again.
Your positive recommendation shocks me, but still, I'd like to know why you're making it. I will be honest and tell you that sometimes I think your rantings are just nuts, yet I would still like to know why you are bullish right now for 2015? My current sentiments are exactly the opposite.
Besides completely agreeing with you regarding management and the board's unwillingness to show us they believe their own hype by buying thousand of shares each, I also have a different concern. During their investor day, they were very clear that even though revenues will increase in 2015, the increase will be at zero gross margin because the increase is related to A-10 work. And as a result, THEY STATED that 2015 net income will be between $7 and $8 million. That is their projection, not mine. In round numbers, that means the 2015 eps will be between $0.82 and $0.94. Do you agree? And if so, what 's the excitement about? Why give the company a 15 multiple? At a 10 multiple that means the stock price should be between $8.20 and $9.40. So why be bullish?
And once again, I'm not trying to be negative. I'm asking someone, anyone, to tell me what I'm missing! Am I reading this wrong? Is there some major news or event or factor that I'm completely ignoring? I understand that if the stock gets into the $8's again, it's a buy. It always is. One just has to look at the charts to see that if you buy in the $8's you will make money at some point. But at $11.00? $12.00?
but I am going bullish on it now. 2015 should drive it higher even though management won't buy on the open market like most intelligent and shareholder centric managers do. They are freeloaders we know but even they won't be able to miss gaining in 2015 so I will go bullish on them - maybe they can trend down a bit more to make it a real deal for me. Boolean
I keep asking the same questions because you refuse to answer them. I'm looking for answers, not arguments. My intentions are honorable. Can you say the same?
So you agree with the man who knows more than anyone, keeps asking the same questions from the board and is afraid to talk to the company and you agree with the person who calls him stupid, now that's what I call taking a stand
No, they wouldn't recognize my voice. But if you think I'm going to spend my time defending who I am, or more importantly, who I'm not, forget it. That just goes back to all I've said about he posters on this board. Disagree with them, and you are management, ex-management, or just plain stupid. Well, I am not any of those three.
You are the one repeating your questions yet you do not seek out answers because doing do would be "redundant." I will not be redundant and continue to discuss this with you.
Would they recognize your voice?
Well, if he told you that, then my calling would just be redundant, wouldn't it? And the answer you received you're categorizing as factual and reasonable? It's reasonable to write off a program that the USG still hasn't? And how does that work now that the defense bill says the planes can't be retired? Did they tell you If their customer told them that they were canceling the program? I'm searching for the reasonableness of the decision.
I'm trying to understand from a layman's point of view, how you can write off a program, and then book revenue on it in future periods. How did they add $10 million or so on the A-10 to the 2015 revenue on the last earnings call, when they as you just stated, wrote off the program a quarter before? I completely understand that if they knew the program was being canceled, they are obligated to do what they did. But to use another of your words, quite obviously they didn't know it factually.
And again, I will respectively ask that somebody show me where my thought process is flawed, as I'm trying to separate appearances from fact. And let's try doing it without accusing me of having an ulterior motive. I have not uttered anything negative about the company or the management at all. I am simply trying to get the facts straightened out before I make an investment decision. And so far, the facts seem to say that while the F-16 contract may be very positive, it has as much chance of being a $10 million contract as a $53 million contract, and the treatment of the A-10 contract seems confusing and unclear at best.
Won't happen. You are wasting your time. Curious will not do that because he is afraid the CPI management will find out who he is. They would recognize his voice.
It would be very easy to answer your questions. I have personally asked management about the decision to write off the A-10 program and have received direct factual and reasonable answers to my questions. They decided to write of the program and take the associated losses because of the overwhelming likelihood of the program being canceled. The exact cut off date for the contract is not yet certain.
If you are really constructive and curious, I suggest you give the CFO a call and post what he tells you.
No insult? You told me I shouldn't buy back in because I have too many questions. Instead of questioning me and my motives, why not help me out by answering the questions I asked? What did I ask that led you to "It's apparent he knows more about the Company than anyone who has ever posted." I asked common sense questions based on information readily available to all of us.
This board has been posted on by people blatantly accused of being management because of their intimate knowledge of the Company, by self-admitted former employees, and by current employees, all of whom had much more pertinent knowledge than I do. So rather than questioning me on when and for how long I owned CPI stock, maybe you could give me an intelligent answer to questions derived through a process of due diligence. Or is that somehow contrary to an agenda you have that has nothing to do with the sharing of ideas, as this and all boards are designed for?
Second, I resent that comment. I suggest you reread my comment, there was no insult made or intended. All I did was question the questioner, which he never answered.
It is apparent that Curious knows more about the Company than anyone who has ever posted on this board. The question then is why is he asking, he knows all of the answers, imho.
Curious, I think Pat is either rare or one of a kind. I've seen many questions asked on this board that did not incur gratuitous insults.
Secondstage, you're not allowed to have an opinion or question anything unless it coincides with their feelings. You see, if you question, you stop being sheep and just follow the propaganda trail. And no one should do that with any stock. CPI might very well be a good company for me to invest in again, but not until someone can give me reasonable answers to reasonable questions. And when someone wants you to leave the board for asking those reasonable questions, it should make warning lights go on for you!
I've been an investor in CPI for many years and I think Curious asked some excellent questions.