LNCO has been falling since it was created. There was a brief period of slightly rising prices in early 2013, then down, down, down ever since.
Ask yourself this, did the guy predict the drop from 100 to 50? No? Then treat his opinion as it should be treated. I saw guys on cnbc predict $600 or 2500 gold. Talking heads on cnbc spout #$%$ all the time. see their "feds going to raise rates" accuracy.
I think biceps is correct about the distribution cut, but it's an open question how much the stock will drop (if any) when that happens. There may be a short term blip that can be bought if you're paying attention, but I believe most of the cut is baked in. I think that there has been a rotation into LINE of holders who are stronger than those who have exited. My strategy is to keep a modest position in case there isn't the oil meltdown that many expect....or at worse, I can sell into any short term bump (post tax selling?) and re enter later. A tricky read for sure.
That ain't how it works. especially with Herbalife. There's smoke coming outta Herbalife.
marco the genius : - ) So, what caused the smoke, huh?
if they cut it to 2$ why would the share price drop from current levels ? you think people currently buying dont expect a drop of some sort? it may actually rise cause it will take away the uncertainty.
No I didn't. I don't believe LINE can hold the distribution, I think they'll cut it to $2.00 in February. I base that on Q4 guidance and the 8-K they filed showing Q3 pro-forma with the new asset mix. I figure maybe they cover about .70-.80 Q4, and going into 2015 they will recognize they have no chance to support the present rate given their weak oil hedging, and will bow to reality.
I will buy LINE after that drop, because with their liquidity they'll be a lion in acquisitions later next year, but for now it's very dangerous to hold LINE, you could get your feet swept out from under in February.
you are correct , if i had remembered that with my psec i would not be down so much
I also mentioned it a few days ago ,I see it temporarily @ least as the basic bottom for both, LNCO traded @ a big premium for a long time, I agree taX LOSS SALES TIGHTENED THE SISTERS UP AGAIN!
LINE might be more susceptible to tax loss selling, since LNCO has more appeal to tax exempt accounts.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
if you really believe exporting LNG is a losing business, then you should go and short Cheniere.
Before you do that I suggest you review the long term take or pay contracts that they have lined up.
BTW most of the LNG is not going to europe. But right now as it stands Europe could really use a bit of LNG from another source besides Russia.
Suggest you do some due diligence before showing your ignorance again.
Sorry to reply to myself .. but one more thought -- those who have sold losing positions for tax=purposes will be looking to begin new 2015 positions -- and OIL is looking good for 2015 at today's prices. Add all of these realities together, and I think we see a solid week next week and beyond.
Oh -- we'll likely see volatility until the announcement, as FEAR reigns and uncertainty abounds. Until investors KNOW what will happen with the distribution, only those who don't mind taking on a lot of risk will buy. My hunch is that many are waiting to see what their decisions will be regarding paying down debt, paying out distribution, etc. If you don't mind risk -- those are great buying opportunities!
Should they announce their "plan" along with their distribution announcement -- it could be a really, really interesting week next week.
Since I believe management will make wise decisions, I'm confident that those buying this week will be very nicely rewarded. Good luck and happy hunting!