I'm not sure everyone knows that (1) the shipment in question is for India and is not coming from Cheniere, and that (2) India will not buy from Cheniere until train 4 is finished. They will pay 115% of Henry Hub and $3 flat fee per mmBtu.
India has contracted for 182.500M mmBtu, which is only a small portion of their annual usage of 2.1B mmBtu.
LOL! "Not seaworthy"?.......Well, darn, they will just have to send another of the 193 operational LNG tankers in the world to come pick it up.
Did they tell you Cheniere's fist test-run tanker is more than a month late, still stuck in port, and deemed not seaworthy?
And did they tell you that if the tanker gets certified at all, it's only going to carry less than an half-load for the first few test-runs?
Listener, I agree with your thoughts. Exports will grow from now. I think our government will keep a lid on the amount that is allowed to exported. We will need most of the gas here. We will always help our friends. I'm sure that Cheniere will have a nice income..
dungalong, as you can tell, most people who post here have no understanding of the Cheniere business plan.
I don't know that I am ready to buy Cheniere yet, but your I think observations are correct.
Last year 240 million tons of LNG was exported and while growth will not be exponential in nature, there will be long term growth. UK, for example, is in the process of converting coal fired electric plants to natural gas and will increase imports of natural gas as the output of North Sea gas fields continues to decrease.
Then there is the problem with the free world being willing customers of the Russia, Iran, and maybe some other nut-case countries. Virtually no one in Europe wants to buy gas from Russia, but for now they have little choice.
Countries who buy natural gas - in any form - will not limit their purchases to one country. They will continue to buy from multiple sources. One example of why they do this is found in Qatar, who has been diverting cargo from UK to more profitable destinations.
So I think the US will always get a share of the sales, and the production will be maxed out. What I do not know, and cannot forecast, is whether Cheniere will be greatly profitable.
cheniere's business model is based on the price differential between the US and and other countries, which I think will continue to shrink, making profit a slim proposition
Having credit rating raised from BB- to BB+ is like getting a D+ instead of a D- for your exam.
BB+ is "Non-investment Grade Speculative" --- way below "Investment-Grade".
Do you know what speculative means?
Who has the ability besides the United States and Australia maybe the Saudi's, to export this LNG? You just don't load it on a ship and move it without processing it. Most of the whole world would like to have it. It was on CNN news that Iran plans to export LNG but are 5-7 years away from a plant to process it. Seems like it is a rare commodity to me. I thinks LNG has a great future..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
*S&P raised the credit rating of LNG from BB- to BB+ with a stable outlook.
*The credit ratings agency expects stable cash flow as construction at Sabine Pass is progressing in line with both budget and schedule expectations.
More at SeekingAlpha...
In terms of too late or too early to the game.
I incline to think DGREGSMART is too early. You have seen nothing yet.
This rumor about the Ruskies and Saudis will cut their oil outputs is just rumor. Under no circumstances, the Saudis will let Iran to make more money on its exporting oil now the sanction had lifted.
Watch out below if LNG can't get refinanced by this summer and it can't get that late tanker out of port for its first test-run in late February.
You are late to the game and a poor guesser. Anything else.
ANOTHER LEG DOWN AS NAT GAS FALLS
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Kinda funny. Some people are saying Cheniere won't make it because gas prices are too low. Others are saying Cheniere won't make it because gas prices are too high. Others are saying Cheniere won't make it because the gas is in the wrong place (USA). Some even say you can't liquefy gas and sell it because the whole process is too expensive.
What you are hoping for not only contrary to logic, it is contrary to reality and it violates the natural law of supply and demand.
The natural gas prices in Europe will always be lower than the US's, because one of the largest NG producers in the world, Russia, is right next door to those European NG-hungry consumers.
Do you know there are thousand and thousand miles of pipelines that pipe NG directly from Russia all over Europe?
Transporting NG by ocean-going tankers half the way around the planet is not cheap and will jack up the price to make it very difficult to compete with the Ruskies' gas next door --- not to mention the high expenses of liquefying the gas and then de-liquefying it before you can sell it to the consumers.