yeah mtw has always had way too awful of a financial position to invest in them. They have like half the rev and operating earnings and more debt and way negative shareholders equity. yet they have a higher valuation than TEX. MTW will never make sense .
Thanks. I bought a few hundred today.........good to be back in TEX......funny how MTW is valued higher again....they annonce a spin off and wall street goes goo goo on them......
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm still running the numbers. I will let you know this weekend. However if you mean what sort of PE TEX should get based on what kind of company it is well 13 or 14. It actually has a pretty good dividend record in the last 10-15 years and it shows the company is good at generating cash flow which increases the value.
since it doesn't work on mobile I was trying to talk feature and it failed miserably.
I also did find it interesting that MTW suggested but they would break apart into Sioux separate entities. MTW has terrible that so perhaps both either one of these companies with huge amounts of bed and will make the other segments attractive. I would never even think about touching and PW start current me I will be interested in looking how the card company will look after after this break up. It's hilarious but MTW as a higher evaluation in TX right now. Sorry for the bad typing but Yahoo Finance on mobile sucks.
It is good to see some of Tex competitors results. The fact is we saw MTW sorry OSK report a couple days ago and we saw that they show revenue will gross 7% next year in their AWP segment. Right now Tex is forecasting flat growth in the segment so there is some on unaccounted for upside. MTW as you showed for reported today and they said it will be down next year however as of right now TX has lowrrmargins then MTW and they expect to improve them going forward so next year crane operating earnings will probably be positive compared to this year to neutral and this is what I'm forecasting. It is good to see though that two of T Ex bigger segments reported by other companies which shows 2015 should be a decent year.
4:11 pm Manitowoc misses by $0.05, misses on revs; announces plan to separate Crane and Foodservice units into two independent companies (MTW) :
•Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.32; revenues fell 6.0% year/year to $1.04 bln vs the $1.06 bln consensus.
•For the full-year 2015, co expects: Crane revenue - mid single-digit percentage decline; Crane operating margins - high single-digit percentage; Foodservice revenue - mid single-digit percentage growth; Foodservice operating margins - improving mid-teens percentage; among other items.
•Co separately announced that its Board of Directors has approved a plan to pursue a separation of the company's Cranes and Foodservice businesses into two independent, publicly-traded companies. The company currently anticipates that the separation will be effected through a tax-free spin-off of the Foodservice business and expects the spin-off to be completed in the first quarter of 2016, creating two separate, industry-leading companies with distinct enterprise strategies."
No it doesn't. When terex had a good earnings reports it would go up 10-20% that day but then it would go up like another 40% before the next quarter. This is when I bought the stock at $10. It would continually go up.
Or IBM it cut its guidance and it dropped 5% in Q3 but then it continued to drop afterwards. Often a stock won't decline 30% in one day especially for a real company like TEX. And it will have a slow walk down until it finds a floor.
I don't think because it didn't drop 40% the day they cut guidance you can say this isn't why the stock has dropped.
There is a steep descent in stock price since 1/2/15. That is not from lowered guidance 9/15/14.
The stock market adjusts swiftly to news.
Tex lowered guidance on Sept 15 and since then it is basically a linear line down. Stocks often overshoot their value negatively and positively.
"I do think the market has knocked down TEX' price because of lower oil prices."
Maybe not because of lower oil prices. Maybe the market knocked down TEX' stock price because of a global economic slowdown which is correlated with lower oil prices from the point of view of lower demand.
My guess is lower oil prices are due more to larger supply than lower demand from a global economic slowdown but both are probably factors.
Anyway, maybe the market is thinking a global economic slowdown will hurt TEX's business and that's why the big share price decline has occurred since November 26th.
"Finally you kept these absurd scenarios to try to say well look this happened TEX is down the 2 must be causation of each other."
I do think the market has knocked down TEX' price because of lower oil prices.
I bet if you plot the price of oil from 11/26/14 to now and plot the stock price of TEX from 11/26/14 to now
you'll see a pretty good correlation.
I think you ignore many likely ill effects of lower oil prices on TEX stock
All that said, I suspect TEX stock has overreacted to the down side because of lower oil prices and I'm not even sure low oil prices should even be a net negative for TEX.
As an exercise for you, what do you think knocked the price of TEX from over $30 to $22.54 in the last 65 days.
I think TEX' lower guidance is not the right answer because that happened in September and late October.
All right and here was my response.
1) I do blame you because as an investor you should have known already from reading Tex's annual they are not dependent on oil
2) I do blame you because you brought up Credit Suisse when research above suggested TEX is not dependent on oil.
3) Yes you started off with the question and i answered it for you despite saying it was your job to do the research not mine.
Finally you kept these absurd scenarios to try to say well look this happened TEX is down the 2 must be causation of eachother.
The fact is I am an investor who has made over 35% a year since 2008. And I do it by finding discrepancies in the market. If everything always made sense you wouldn't be able to beat the market would you?
Terex is a swing stock. I know it very well since it was my favourite company. However I sold it in early 2013 because it had a lot of issues. Importantly it has fixed my big concerns and the stock happens to be 40% cheaper to where I sold.
So I am basically in heaven given the current price. I am elated to buy at $20. However I will agree TEX's performance has been unacceptable relative to where they said they would be. However I stopped trusting DeFeo's guidance years ago. Despite their awful job on guidance I think I can do a good enough job estimating their profitability. And I see them being far more profitable in times ahead. I also really like DeFeo I think he is a genius he just is awful at guidance.
Like you, I believe the drop in oil is an overall stimulant to growth.
Don't blame me for the market valuing TEX down because of lower oil prices which seems pretty clearly to have happened in the last 60 days.
Don't blame me because the Credit Suisse analysts pointed out that CAT, TEX and MTX were affected adversely by low oil prices.
Remember that I started off with you by asking what percentage of TEX business is dependent on oil.
I asked you because it didn't seem the TEX price downswing was justified based on lower oil prices.
I was just trying to explore it further.
Every article i read says the drop in oil will increase the world's GDP "The report said the dramatic drop in oil prices should be a net positive for the world economy. However, exporters of oil and other commodities will be slowed by the sharp price declines – including many emerging-market regions that had been relied upon for strong contributions to global growth." from the IMF
Terex a non-oil company should clearly benefit from this. Yet you mention the drop in oil price as a negative to Terex.
It just shows how awful your analysis is. You're taking a positive and calling it a negative. What do you call that?
You said, "lol yeah because CAT builds generators for oil companies"
But it is not that simple. CAT said the decline in oil prices was
"the most significant reason for the year-over-year decline in our sales and revenues outlook. Current oil prices are a significant headwind for Energy & Transportation and negative for our construction business in the oil producing regions of the world."
CAT does a lot more than build generators for oil companies. So a slowdown in the building of generators for oil companies can not be the most significant reason for a year over year decline in CAT's overall sales and revenues outlook. Lower oil prices have to be affecting other business CAT does, which TEX probably also does.
As the Credit Suisse analysts said, the low price of oil has affected TEX and ?MTX? similarly to CAT.
This is from the end of TEX' Yahoo profile:
"TEX also provides financing solutions to assist customers in the rental, leasing, and acquisition of its products.
It serves the construction, infrastructure, quarrying, mining, manufacturing, shipping, transportation, energy, and utility industries worldwide."
Not coincidentally TEX works in the same Energy & Transportation sector and TEX also does work in the Middle East so, like CAT, TEX probably also does, "construction in oil producing regions of the world."
"Now let's continue. TEREX SOLD it's MINING BUSINESS 3 years ago. So what the hell do they have to do with oil?"
CAT gave you your answer today: "The recent dramatic decline in the price of oil is the most significant reason for the year-over-year decline in our sales and revenues outlook. Current oil prices are a significant headwind for Energy & Transportation and negative for our construction business in the oil producing regions of the world."