It's possible that a bear flag is forming. Watch for a break below the 50 dsma and the recent lows for confirmation. Dowside targets are noted below.
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DIA is currently below the 50 dsma. Researched yesterdays rally on 3-11-15 and it seems I missed an uptrend line per the closing prices/line chart dates; 10/16/14, ~1/28/15, and now 3-11-15. Essentially the markets (DJX) could find support here but the intra-day lows trendline per those dates extends proportionately lower. The down/up/down trade action in the last 3/4 trading days resembles sessions 2/2/15 and 10/10/14 where resolution was rather significant. On the downside a break and close below the 3/12/15 lows will favor further selling pressure on an intra-day basis to ~ 17500. If this level breaks the next logical target is the 200 dsma ~ 17300. If the 200 dmsa/17300 and 17100 zones cannot support, the markets are vulnerable to significant declines. Conversely, bullish price action occurs above the 50 dsma ~ 17775 then targeting the 18000/18100 zone. If the rally extends beyond those zones then the markets should test and possibly surpass the recent highs. I suspect the answers will become apparent by the end of next week.
Within the past year and a half aside from the October 14 lows the DJX has bounced off the 200 dsma several times virtually spot on; 10/9/13, 2/4/14, 8/8/14, 2/2/15. The ~17100 price is not the current 200 dsma however appears to be a potential support zone. This zone acted as resistance ~7/22/14 (17133), 8/27/14 (17134). It was broken/rallied through per the 9/18/14 close (17265). The DJX then peaked on 9/19/14 (17350) reversed course and spiraled into the volatile Oct 2014 correction. More recently on 12/16/14 (17067 Low) and 2/2/15 (17037 Low) the ~17000/17100 price area acted as support. A more exact representation of this rather significant price zone could be noted as an average e.g. (17067+17037+17133+17134)/4 = 17092 or ~17100. To a degree I think both you and your friends are correct in terms of notable downside targets (17100/17300) however the current 200 dsma ~17300 violation/support ('next target' as stated in my original post) must clearly occur prior to 17100 via market decline... Of course all of this is just my opinion in addition to investors/traders bearing the responsibility of doing their own due diligence.
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Great charting, I think I might stop putting in the time and just let you do it for me. I thought 17100 would be the low, but my friends keep telling me 17300 and now I read this.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Sentiment: Strong Sell
Official close today; DJX - 332.78 @ 17662.94. Expecting some natural ebb/flow near term, but static aside will pay close attention to key levels. As noted; the 200 Dsma seems a logical downside target and it will be interesting to see what happens. You may have made a great call here JR, but with these markets, who knows....
A close on the lows today will not bode well going into tomorrow. DJX currently -291 @ 17704. Next target should be the 200Dsma @ ~ 17300/DIA/173. A confirmed break of that level and you'll likely see a test of the October lows. If any of this unfolds, 'massive' could be an appropriate word to describe it.