Combes has always said the shift plan would start getting traction 2015. Never heard him indicate 2014 as the year. You a drive by investor.
Oh boy, ANOTHER 18 MONTH OLD POST of mine.....hahhahaha
AND EVERYTHING IN IT WAS VERY TRUE WHEN I WROTE IT.......
~AT THE TIME, according to the estimate portion of the yahoo stock page, sales WERE EXPECTED to decline......
~And also AT THE TIME I WROTE IT, 96% of ALU revenue came from only 60 countries despite presence in 180 countries...
~And yes, the political problems facing a potential acquirer 18 months ago were JUST AS REAL THEN, as they are today...
~And THEN, with ALU having just started the Shift Plan, it was definitely worth noting that ALU had FACTUALLY gone through 5 previous restructurings, all of which had failed...and there were no guarantees that the Shift Plan would produce results.
Yet with each passing Q, it became more and more evident that sales were on the rise, that ALU would, and did reduce their global presence, that political problems over a complete buyout by other than a French company were seemingly intractable....and now, finally, ALU found a restructuring plan in the Shift Plan that is actually working....accordingly, slowly, I became more positive over time, and of course, the stock price, as a broad trend, improved in a manner similar to what happened at ERIC, then ERICY, when it successfully restructured. Early on, on the expectation that restructuring would work, ERIC's stock price rose a bit too fast, then fell for a while, before finally moving up. Similarly, ALU climbed to the $4.50 cent range, in a matter of months after the kickoff of the Shift Plan, then slowly declined back down to the low $2 range .....and now, after an impressive 3Q, it is on the move, where we are on the cusp of a good or better 4Q....and the beginning of a significantly profitable, if we are to believe the consensus estimate, 2015.
Thanks for proving how right I was over the last few years....
At the beginning of the year was when the stock was selling at $4.50. ALU is worse off now than at the beginning of the year.
rumors_twilight • Jul 9, 2013 10:41 AM Flag
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Hate to burst your bubble, but sales at ALU are expected to continue to decline for the next couple of years.....also, the company is reducing its global foot print because they derive 96% of their revenue in only 60 countries, and they have a presence in 180 countries.....also, there are innumerable political problems with buying ALU, and that assumes they are an attractive takeover candidate, which they are not now.....also, ALU has restructured 4 or 5 times in the last 7 years without producing results....so no one believes that this current effort will necessarily be successful
Merry Christmas to all that believe in where this company is going and what it will become. I think it is in the early stag for a good 2015. GLTA
My problem with the whole notion of LightRadio as a blockbuster product is this:
There is a lot of competition coming from large and small firms, which will splinter small cell marketshare into many pieces, making an aggregate buy over time of even 300,000 units quite large...or so it seems to me...so that 300,000 units, even at the top end of the average per unit sale price of $1000 is worth only about $300M.
I say ONLY because I wonder how many years it would take ALU to secure an aggregate order count of 300,000 units, with so many small cell vendors vying for the same orders? Didn't ATT, a MAJOR service provider, order ONLY 30,000 from ALU for its entire national network?
Still, I do think that LightRadio is an ESSENTIAL product. Any service provider using macro towers, which is everyone, probably needs small cells. For as long as ALU sells macro cell towers, they NEED a small cell offering to complement the network, if for no other reason than it adds a needed density dimension to its offering.
But your point is well taken when it comes to a possible merger. Obviously, a merger of wireless units will require that ALU and NOK rationalize their entire wireless portfolio, which WILL INCLUDE their respective small cell offerings. But getting rid of one small cell in favor of the other small cell is problematic, since respective sales small cell were made as part of the performance/technical characteristics of the unit purchased. How does a combined NOK/ALU wireless unit now go back to a customer and say...."well, you know that small cell you bought from us...it has been discontinued"?
And when it comes to the merger, that is precisely the problem.....that customer conversation will necessarily take place for each product discontinued.
Who knows, maybe, if the current talks have been ongoing for many months or a year, perhaps that issue is being ironed out right now in consultation with key customers. Makes sense to me.
Merry Christmas everyone !!!!!! Even the turd bashers. I hope all of you wish everyone you know a merry Christmas too. Also remember, it is a time of giving and family and the birth of Christ. Too often Christmas is too commercialized and the true meaning of Christmas is lost. So remember the true meaning of Christmas......... :)
My post is only an analogy not a cost or market breakdown.
In your post you ask .....how can ALU "dominate the market .....or fulfill its early promise of being a blockbuster product?"
One answer would be mass production and distribution of LightRadio small cells (perhaps with a partner like Nokia) and to do it "Ahead Of The Crowd". .............Tickerguy
YES.....POSTS THAT ARE 18 MONTHS OLD......HAHAHHAHAHHA!!!!
Yes, board members.....if you were around in June of 2013, you would know how dicey it still was for ALU....an ALU that in 1Q, just a couple of months earlier.....had successfully burned up $700M of the $2.1B that they had raised from the Goldman Loan.....OR ALMOST 33% OF THE LOAN.
Only an imbecile would be wildly optimistic during that time.....
LMAO.. I honestly got to tell you dumbdumb. I don't think you have any followers. And if you do, there names are more than likely sjflegends & bigmbrown. . your other 2 stooges.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Because if it is, I wanted to make sure I'm here to post some more on how well I know this stock. Could one of my followers reply back please and let me know? Thanks in advance.
HAHA!!...THOSE POSTS ARE 18 MONTHS OLD...HAHA!!
Yes....all of those posts represent reasonable observations and concerns AT THE TIME THAT I MADE THEM RELATIVE TO THE CONDITION OF THE COMPANY AND THE NEWS...so your point is what exactly? LOL.
And thanks for pointing out how right I was then back then....by noting how when the stock was declining down to 92 cents a share in late 2012, I was very negative, then over time I became more positive after the arrival of Michel.....where more positive equates to cautiously optimistic?
Even back then, Wireless still had a small global footprint, and legacy product sales are now down to less than 15%. You know, old CDMA products, which you argued over many posts would be around forever, making ALU's wireless unit critical for ALU in the future. And how did that work out for you? Hahahahaha. NOK needs ALU's US wireless business, it is that simple...especially since wireless is not a core ALU focus.
And Small cells are no where near where investors thought they would be by this time. Hmmmm. Ever wonder why ALU reports that it has 122 (or there a bouts) small cell contracts....yet we NEVER here about their contribution to revenue? Hmmmmm?
The board of directors would have done anything to save the company over the interests of the shareholders if Michel's restructuring plan had failed...including restructuring under bankruptcy law. They care about saving the company, and if the plan failed, which it didn't do, they would have restructured in a heartbeat in a way similar to what GM did...and existing shareholders would have been screwed...so that as many French jobs could be saved as possible.
And correct, there was no restructuring switch to flip on for success. It took two years to get to where we are today.....and ALU is still not done.
All this proves that what you posted under your other alias, which mimicked my ID...was wrong...which is why, of course, you are now using a different one now.
rumors_twilight • Jun 20, 2013 1:17 AM Flag
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ALU ESTIMATES that its Wireless Unit revenue will experience a DECLINE of about 900M Euros from the end of 2011 to the end of 2015, which is a massive reduction.
The end of 2015 is expected to find the US LTE market in the early stages of revenue decline that will accelerate significantly in 2016, and more so in 2017. Meanwhile, the small cell market is very competitive with many, many vendors, in part because small cells are being used solely to augment macro networks. So many vendors, not just 5 or 6, will be sharing related revenues in a highly fractured market. Also, as Nomura pointed out, small cells have a low Average Sale Price, and they suffer from diseconomies of scale, where maintenance and backhaul requirements are expensive.
So if we factoring in a steep, and likely terminal decline (an ALU estimate, too) of CDMA legacy products, which have massive margins, plus the decline in US LTE sales, in by far ALU's best market, and also reduced expectations for small cells...
...THEN WHEN IS ALU'S WIRELESS UNIT GOING TO BE A STELLAR PERFORMER? 2018? 2019?
There is no restructuring switch to flick on. No instant success. Meaningful results might take years. If you think otherwise, you do not understand ALU's dilemma.
rumors_twilight • Jun 19, 2013 3:34 PM Flag
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it seems more and more that Michel's plan is only a modest expansion of the existing plan.
rumors_twilight • Jun 19, 2013 11:17 PM Flag
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It is hard to find a company like ALU, which counting Michel's plan, has gone through 5 distinct restructuring efforts, over a continuous 7 year period.
rumors_twilight • May 8, 2013 2:09 AM Flag
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Yes, ALU will lose (lots of) employees as part of any large asset sale. Those employees are not, I think, a part of the planned reduction of 5,500. And an asset sale does save ALU a lot of money through cost avoidance...no severance pay, etc.
The Board has tunnel vision, and seems obsessed with the notion that restructuring MUST work. To the exclusion of other options, they seem convinced that ALU MUST survive. I am convinced at this point that push come to shove, the Board will bleed every last nickel out of remaining assets to fund still more restructuring, even as each new effort is necessarily characterized by ever diminishing chances of success. So yes, if things go badly, existing shareholders will be left holding the bag.
rumors_twilight • Apr 9, 2013 9:57 AM Flag
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It was good news (LOL, not so much) that ALU, got dumped as the INCUMBENT EQUIPMENT PROVIDER....which is usually a pretty hard thing to do.
by rumors_twilight • Apr 8, 2013 9:35 PM Flag
Telecom dumps Alcatel-Lucent for Huawei in 4G network build
[When it comes to Huawei....I TOLD YOU SO!]