I gladly welcome an offering to raise cash. I think it will definitely result in a rise in PPS. Secondly when it comes to reps lets do the math. These guys on avg. pull in about 100k so 100x100=10mil cost associated with increase in staff. I am pretty sure 100 non overlapping reps will result in at least 10mil increase in sales of silenor/treximet. We can also consider the pernix reps now selling zohydro should increase the sales estimates that the previous company had put out. I didn't like today as I was buying too high yesterday. However I feel I will be green on all shares soon enough.
Hey Gorlax - I fully agree!!
Good marketing, pricing strategies and how the sales force is managed are key.
It's the same product and the same sales force. However that X-Zogenix sales force will also be selling Silenor & Treximet.
So............ depending how PTX sets-up the commission schedules for each of the three products, both for their existing sales force as well as the X-Zogenix sales force, will dictate which product will get the sales force's priority.
Money (via commissions & bonuses) always dictates a sales force's actions, independent of the industry and/or product.
Absolute steal. I cannot believe they got this for 100 mil. DEPO paid a billion bucks for Nucynta. This is going to vault PTX higher. I am standing by my 16 target but it will get there sooner than previously expected. Zohydro does sell and now with PTX behind it, it will sell more. Plus now they will promote treximet and silenor to new departments. We have a winner here!! 100 million?? man that is cheap.
The more I study the purchase of Zohydro, the more I like it. Sales for the past year amounted to $27.3 million and that was only the first year with all of the free samples. The word is getting out with almost 19,000 users (no pun intended). PTX gets the sales force, thus saving it the costs of advertisement, interviewing, training and accounting. This amounted to a substantial amount along with the FDA approval of the manufacturing, labeling, etc.. The safety of Zohydro, as compared to its competitors, surely will allow PTX to reach $50 million or more in sales this year. AND the salespersons will be selling PTX's other products. So $80 million looks like a steal. Granted PTX gave some stock, but even if Zohydro is not a big success, PTX will not suffer a loss on the $20 million in stock. ZGNX anticipates milestones being reached which will bring them more cash. Meaning that it is expected that sales of Zohydro are expected to reach at least $300 million.
Yeah, ZGNX has estimated sales on yahoo finance of $59 million for 2015. This is a good deal for PTX. ZGNX will focus on their pipeline and PTX will hopefully grow sales with ZGNX reps. The IP goes out to 2030.
I emailed the PTX CFO with my comments on today's news and he replied with a lengthy answer. i tried to copy and past it a message here, but Yahoo won't let me. But, for some strange reason, it let me post it over on the HZNP msg board. You can view it there.
They now project 220-240m sales including Zohydro 8M sales which I assume at 40m using run rate from 4Q2014 when it was owned by Zogenix
Previous 2015FY forecast was 220m but EXCLUDING Zohydro.
So now we are getting app. 180m in sales without Zohydro + 40m in Zhodyro 8M sales in 2015.
With 33m sales in Q12015 they still believe in delivering 50m per quarter in next quarters.
Unfortunate Kitty hasn't posted in weeks. She had some good points and was pretty funny. The boards are not the same without her comments, like her or not. You guys might find this company of interest, KPTI. It falls in this category of stocks I am targeting as buyout candidates.
It was puzzling. I think some of the PTX investors read some of the negatives thrown at Zohydro, so the stock dropped. Once they looked at the positives, it rebounded. If sales of Zohydro exceed $15 million next quarter, this stock should soar.
We should be rallying, way under value here based on earnings.....One of the safest Bios out there........Up there with POZN and RMTI.......repositioning for any market downturn.....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Usually, if I am the only one left posting on the board of a stock that has sold off, the sell-off is over. Hmm, I am trying to see if there is a correlation. Don't shoot me.
Yep, about 80% or so of that revenue is Zohydro, the rest being mainly contract revenue. However, it is growing swiftly with peak potential of $250 million at least. Relative to the potential and growth pace, this is a very good price. If you read some of the commentary by Zogenix management, such as in the Reuters article, it is clear they made an emotional and irrational decision based on the feeling of being backed up against a wall. I'm glad Pernix could take advantage of that weakness.
I'll shoot you. But really this stock is for long-term. Five years from now stock will be worth 40-45$ a share. Load up while still affordable.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Too soon to be patting anyone on the back just yet. We need to see investors come to their senses to fuel a (further) rebound first.
If PTX can fill in the blanks that zogenix was unable to do with Zohydro, I'd expect to see this stock shoot up. Given the successful marketing of two previous drugs. I'm confident that Zohydro will become a successful product given the right direction and marketing strategies.
The downturn is likely do to the stigma behind this product. It shot Zogenix down numerous times and seems to be something that makes people quiver. While in reality it's sister compound hydrocodone/APAP is the #1 prescribed medication. People on long term opiod therapy, cancer patients, and people with liver disease will be prescribed this medication.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I would welcome anybody to poke holes in my theory. However, even with disappointing sales for this quarter, I'm not seeing this stock as that bad of a deal right now. Assuming sales remain flat....that would result in 130-160M in sales. This is pretty good revenue for a 380M Market Cap stock. And, if revenues come in closer to the 220-240M range as the company is forecasting, this is REALLY good revenue for a 380M (or lower if the stock takes a hit) Market Cap.
I suppose the question is.....What is the real breakeven point? Cash flow from operations were reported as positive in 2014, but that obviously does not mean breakeven, as the income statement shows a loss of 35M for 2014. I would expect cash flow from ops to improve for 2015. If not, then there could be a problem (increasing operational expenses or reduced sales). If this metric improves, then we should see a reduction in the reported loss on the income statement (again, only if expenses do not get out of control), and possibly a profit.
Anyhow, with a new round of financing to raise 120M of cash, and somewhere between 130-240M in sales annually, it looks to me like there is some time to right the ship. No guarantees that the ship will be "righted", but in general FDA approved pharmaceuticals sell, and growth occurs. Sometimes growth can be slow, but the value is still there. Sales over the next 6-9 months will paint the picture a little more clearly. PTX certainly needs increased sales more than anything right now.
I just don't see this one falling too much from here. Considering buying more in the mid-8's if it gets there.
After completion of latest debt issuance PTX will have 405m USD debt
65m convertible senior notes at 8%
220m secured notes at 12%
120m convertible notes - interest to be set up but I am assuming 8-10% rate
From cash flow perspective it means they need to generate app. 41-43m USD for the annual interest PLUS since August 1, 2015 they will start repayment of 220m secured notes with the each payment accountinf for 50% of Treximet net sales from 2 consecutive quarters deducted by the interest value.
I assume this principal repaymnet as something close to 10m per quarter starting from August 1, 2015.
So in 2015 they will need to repay 2 principal installment of 20m USD in total + 41-43m USD for interest on total debt = 61-63m USD. I think this is really heavy payment for PTX assuming poor cash flow from operations they generated in 2014 and assuming their cash needs for working capital in 2015 as the sales growths (cash frozen in receivables and inventory).
I do no want to be taken as bad messenger but I do expect further dillution with such cash needs.
For the valuation consideraion , including current debt PTX has now 690m USD valuation (market cap + net debt) which is still too high for the company promising to generate 220m sales, coming further dilution and tight cash flow.