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Apple Inc. Message Board

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  • Don't be scared into selling. The stock has had a long, powerful run and needed to consolidate before moving to new highs. In addition to having a stellar balance sheet, it is still cheap relative to the S&P on a P/E basis, has a good growth rate and PEG ratio as well as a shareholder friendly board interested in growing the stock price through buy backs and dividend increases. Many catalysts are yet to come. Hold tightly onto your shares and you will be rewarded.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Tuesday January 20, 2015 -- Richard Padilla

    Apple's share of the smartphone market in Asia has risen significantly since the launch of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus in September, according to market research firm Counterpoint. The biggest market share gains for the iPhone came in Japan, China, and South Korea, with the iPhone seeing a 33% market share during November in the latter country. This only trailed rival and South Korean company Samsung, which had a 46% market share after holding a 60% market share.

    Commenting on Apple’s performance in Korea, Counterpoint’s Research Director based in Korea, Tom Kang notes, “No foreign brand has gone beyond the 20% market share mark in the history of Korea’s smartphone industry. It has always been dominated by the global smartphone leader, Samsung. But iPhone 6 and 6 Plus have made a difference here, denting the competition’s phablet sales. Korea being the world’s highest penetrated phablet market (handsets with 5” above screens) earnestly needed a large screen iPhone for quite a time and now this thirst has been quenched. If there was a better supply of iPhone 6 & 6 Plus 64GB & 128GB models (popular SKUs*) during the month then Apple’s share could have climbed to the 40% level.”

    Apple's market share in Japan grew to 51% in November, holding a commanding lead over second place Sony which holds 17% market share. In China, Apple held a 12% market share in the smartphone market, which is third place behind Lenovo's 13% market share and upstart manufacturer Xiaomi, which commanded a 18% market share.

    Counterpoint’s Research Director Neil Shah, commenting on Apple’s record performance in China notes, “iPhone 6 was the most popular iPhone model during November accounting for more than two-thirds of the total iPhone sales. However, with improving supply of iPhone 6 Plus we believe the iPhone 6 Plus sales will contribute to a greater proportion of the sales mix in December and during the Chinese holiday season in Q1 2015."

  • SETH FIEGERMAN -- JUN. 29, 2012

    BLOOMBERG: The iPhone's impact will be minimal. It will only appeal to "a few gadget freaks." Nokia and Motorola haven't a care in the world.

    PC MAGAZINE: The iPhone is deeply flawed. Apple will sell lots at first and then sales will plummet.

    MARKETWATCH: The "one phone fits all" concept is ridiculous. Apple needs to roll out many variations, or the iPhone will immediately become passe.

    CAPITAL GROUP: The Motorola RAZR is a great phone at a great price (free). There's no way the overpriced iPhone can compete with it.

    BUSINESSWEEK: The iPhone will never be a threat to the BlackBerry.

    RIM CEO JIM BALSILLIE: The iPhone's impact on our business will be minimal.

    MICROSOFT CEO STEVE BALLMER: There's 'no chance' the iPhone will get a significant share of the market. 'No chance.'

  • ( Country, Type, Marginal Production Cost, Transport Cost, Profit per Barrel at Price of 70$ )

    Saudi Arabia Onshore 3 2 65
    Middle East ex Saudi Onshore 14 4 52
    Russia Onshore 18 12 40
    Other former USSR Onshore 21 12 37
    Venezuela/Mexico Onshore 32 4 34
    Norway/UK Northsea 50 2 18
    United States Deep-water 57 2 11
    Brazil Ethanol 66 5 -1
    Brazil Offshore 80 2 -12
    United States Shale 73 12 -15
    Canada Sand 90 15 -35
    Europe Ethanol 103 2 -35
    Europe Biodiesel 110 2 -42
    Russia Arctic 120 5 #$%$br />

    George Dorgan -- December 1, 2013 2:53 pm

    SNB & CHF

  • 1. Apple = 51.3%

    2. Samsung = 17.7%

    3. Nokia = 5.8%

    4. Sony = 1.6%

    5. LG = 1.4%

    It’s clear that Santa is no longer into cookies - he prefers Apples. It was a banner Christmas for the Apple, the company that started the mobile revolution with the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007. Seven years later, Apple accounted for 51% of the new device activations worldwide Flurry recognized in the week leading up to and including Christmas Day (December 19th - 25th).

  • Chris Smith -- Jan 8 2015

    The Korea Times has learned that the Snapdragon 810, which should come with the Galaxy S6, LG G4 and plenty of other flagship Android handsets later this year, is facing several performance issues that might significantly push back the launch of these devices.

    “Problems such as overheating at certain voltages and performance degradation caused by memory controller problems have been reported, and its clock rate, an index representing a processor’s performance, was estimated to be lower than its predecessor, the Snapdragon 805,” the publication writes.

    “An uncontrollable limitation of processing speed to prevent overheating has been pointed out. According to the mobile chipset benchmark Geekbench, the Snapdragon 810 had a serious ‘throttling’ problem that forcibly limits the graphic processing performance when it overheats.”

    Three J.P. Morgan analysts confirmed these issues, according to Barrons, saying they were spotted both on the Snapdragon 615 and 810 starting with December.

    “For the Snapdragon 810, a flagship chip for use in high-end models, we believe the issues are related to the implementation of new 64-bit ARM cores (A57), which is causing overheating when accelerating above 1.2-1.4 GHz frequencies, which is a major limitation for a flagship phone,” the analysts said.

    To fix the issues, Qualcomm might need to come up with a different version of the Snapdragon 810, which could delay the launch of several top Android flagship phones by three full months. Analysts expect Qualcomm to require one month for prototyping and design fixes and two more months for completing the metal mask layers in final production.

    Even though Samsung can afford to include its own chips in the Galaxy S6 and launch the phone according to its own internal schedule, other Android device makers including LG might have to either wait for the Snapdragon 810 to be fixed, or choose a different top smartphone chip from the competition.

  • "There is a reason that Samsung has had to use a swiping sensor instead of a touch sensor. My guess is because Authentec had patents that made it difficult to implement a touch print sensor, hence the swipe. If they now move to a touch print sensor, either they have worked around Authentec's patents or we are going to see another lawsuit. Apple paid a lot of money for that tech and it was unquestionably a superior implementation and better user experience."

    "Honest question: are Authentec's patents that general that they cover a touch sensor, ANY touch sensor?

    The reason I ask, is that I find it hard to believe that there aren't other research groups, companies, or divisions within Samsung themselves, with both the man and brain power to develop some sort of sensor that scans a fingerprint. Authentec certainly has patents on their exact process, but I simply can't believe that is the one and only way to do it, hence my question about how precise or general Authentec's patents are."

    "Honest answer, I have no idea. If it was easy to work around Authentec's patents and implement a stationary touch print sensor, I honestly think Samsung or anyone else would be pushing hard to get that out there. prior to the 5S, finger print sensors were generally not well received. As you say, I am sure Samsung and others would be looking at implementing something similar because it is undeniably superior to a swiping sensor. Yet none have released a real competitor yet, likely because the sensor is difficult to implement without Authentec's patents.

    So, that's my question. Has Samsung worked around Authentec's patents or not? Because if they haven't found a unique and novel implementation, we'll probably see more lawsuits."

  • Diversification is highly touted as a way to reduce risk. In the world of stocks, this means buying many companies across a broad spectrum of industry groups. The idea is that if one or two take a tumble, investors won't get badly hurt. While this can be true, understand that diversification has some serious drawbacks.

    One, diversification can dilute your returns. Academia states that a portfolio starts to reap the benefits of diversification at about 20 stocks. But at this point, your returns will be watered down. If you have one or two big winners that surge 50% or 100% in an equally weighted portfolio of 20 stocks, you will hardly feel a thing. The performance of the big winners will be drowned out by the rest of the holdings. In a major bear market, even diversification won't save you. As 2008 showed, nearly every stock will go down. There is really is no place to turn to, but cash.

    Two, it's tough to really understand the intricacies of that many companies and keep up with them. Sure, institutional investors often own hundreds of stocks in a single fund. But they have entire research and trading departments to track them week in, week out.

    Diversification can also involve branching out into other asset classes, such as bonds or commodities. But there is no guarantee to what they'll do. Even commodities took a broad hit during the financial meltdown in 2008.

    "Broad diversification is plainly and simply often a hedge for ignorance," wrote IBD chairman and founder William O'Neil in "How to Make Money in Stocks."

    Instead of casting a wide net, concentrate in only a few leading stocks. Invest only in companies with the fastest earnings and sales growth rates. They should have cutting-edge products or services and belong in top-rated industry groups. This is especially important in a strong bull market.

    BY Vincent Mao, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

  • “The industry is ripe for disruption right now,” said Doug Newcomb, a long-time automotive industry journalist and president of the C3 Group, which hosts the Connected Car Conference. “Car makers have been doing the same thing, pretty much, for the last 100 years — selling a chassis with an engine. Cars have not changed that dramatically.”

    The company has made tentative moves into the automotive space with Car Play, an in-dash system that connects to Apple’s iPhone and takes advantage of the smartphone’s features, including driving directions and Siri’s voice control. The stereo will be offered in a range of new vehicles made by more than 30 automakers.

    It’s the sort of experimentation Apple did in 2005, when the company partnered with Motorola and Cingular Wireless on a phone loaded with its iTunes software (the Rokr) before creating its own device, the iPhone. The partnership lent Apple insight into the workings of the industry.

    Increasingly, cars are becoming computers on wheels. Semiconductors are pervasive in modern vehicles — controlling systems under the hood, operating facets of the drive train, offering enhanced safety features such as collision warnings and parking assists and delivering in-vehicle entertainment.

    Thilo Koslowski, leader of Gartner’s automotive practice, said the industry that long ago mastered the mechanical side of transportation is becoming more and more dependent upon advances that come from software.

    “I see this as an evolution that’s happening,” Kozlowski said. “We’re entering an era of the software-defined car. It will actually elevate the importance of companies that really understand software well. That’s where Apple comes in.”

    'An Apple Car? It’s Not So Outrageous.'

    Dawn Chmielewski -- February 14, 2015

  • Gordon Scott, CMT-- 1/09/2015

    Apple shares should lead indexes higher and, barring a market meltdown of sorts, the stock is poised to move higher through the rest of the month of January and through the remaining first quarter of the year.

    From a technical perspective five factors have appeared on the price chart for AAPL that make it a compelling buy between $110 and $115. The first is the fact that Apple shares recently bounced off of a 52-week linear-regression trendline. This indicates that despite the recent sell off in the market, for now, buyers still want to own this company and they expect the stock to continue its trajectory.

    The second technical factor is a flag pattern on the weekly chart which indicates that should the stock resume its upward trend, it would have a price target of about $20 higher for the next two months.

    [...]

    The third factor is the way the price has lots of room before hitting the upper Bollinger Band. This suggests that the stock remains under priced within its trend from a statistical point of view, so that if a breakout from the flag pattern does occur, there is plenty of room to run before buyers worry about valuation concerns.

    The fourth factor is the stochastic indicator at the bottom of the chart. The position of this indicator shows the statistical tendency to closer higher than midway in the range of a week, a characteristic of upward trending stocks. So far despite the sell off of recent weeks, AAPL shares have not given up this tendency. It is establishes yet another small hint that buyers may resume demand for the shares.

    A fifth factor seen on the daily chart is that the Thursday’s opening price gapped well above Wednesday’s high, and the closing price remained well above the 10-day moving average. According a gap study by Richard Bauer, CMT, and Julie Dahlquist, CMT, this combination of signals implies a 65% probability that AAPL will outperform the S&P 500 over the next 20 days.

  • Hal M. Bundrick -- Jan 10th 2015

    It's quite likely that in a few years, pulling out a credit card -– embedded chip or not –- will seem like a quaint, old-fashioned way to make a payment. Mobile payment tools, while currently the purview of mostly early adopters, are set to transform the payment process -- offering convenience and advanced security. It's also likely that a late arrival to the payment party will soon be the toast of the technology.

    Apply Pay (AAPL), a payment option available for less than three months, is poised by the end of February to overtake the transaction volume of Google (GOOG) Wallet, which was launched in 2011, ITG Investment Research estimates.

    But more importantly, Apple Pay could "pose a major threat" to the mobile payment kingpin, eBay's (EBAY) PayPal, according to ITG. Despite the fact that Apple Pay is still vertically bound to serve just its own customers and is supported by a "relatively limited list of merchants," the new service has advantages that PayPal may not be able to overcome.

    Analyst Steve Weinstein believes that PayPal suffers from "a challenging relationship" with other companies involved in the payment process and can't offer the biometric security capabilities that Apple Pay can. Apple Pay also has the power of the brand's affinity and an ease of use that will be difficult for competitors to overcome.

  • Steven Reinberg -- Sept. 3, 2014

    Spending less time sitting might increase your lifespan by keeping your DNA young, Swedish researchers say.

    More time spent on your feet appears to lengthen bits of DNA called telomeres. Telomeres, which protect the end of chromosomes (like the tips that keep shoelaces from fraying), tend to get shorter and shorter until they can't shorten any more, causing cells to die.

    "Our data indicate that lengthening of our telomeres may be one mechanism that induces health benefits after lowering sitting time in elderly people," said lead researcher Per Sjogren, an associate professor in the department of public health and caring sciences at Uppsala University.

    "Telomeres have attracted a lot of interest in the last few years because they are situated at the end of our chromosomes and have shown to be important for DNA replication and cell survival. The interest of whether telomeres may affect health and longevity has increased," Sjogren said.

    Telomeres stop chromosomes from fraying or clumping together and scrambling the genetic codes they contain, the researchers noted.

    Why spending less time sitting might lengthen telomeres isn't known. "That is a valid question that remains to be resolved," Sjogren said.

    Dr. David Katz, director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, said, "There has long been evidence that the more hours we spend sitting every day, the fewer days we are likely to have to spend sitting, or doing anything else for that matter. Hours per day on our backsides correlate with reductions in life expectancy."

  • Thats what we have as of Fridays close. If you do not know what a triple bottom pattern means I suggest you read up. If next week we climb back up, expect new highs by end of Jan early February.

    I added on this dip, I even covered my short on SSYS to have more funds in AAPL.

    Good Luck to all investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It has a trailing PE of 15 which is less than that of Hewlett Packard and almost 40% less than that of other stocks in its category. Yet, AAPL has a growth rate of more than double its PE which makes it both a value and a growth play. The canard of it being a one trick poney has been debunked by applepay, iwatch, iTV, and now iCar (along with other as yet unrevealed innovations).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 'Samsung Galaxy S6 Release Date Approaching: Slimmer, Taller Design Expected In March'
    Thomas Halleck -- January 31 2015

    "If the Galaxy S6 leak is not a fake, the basic shape of the S5 will remain in this year’s model, although the Samsung is expected to upgrade the body to aluminum instead of plastic. The move might also make it so that customers cannot replace the Galaxy S6 battery, and they might not be able to increase storage space with flash memory cards either."

    'Samsung Will Release Galaxy S6 With Two Curved Edges, A Glass Back And Non-Removable Battery'
    Thomas Halleck -- January 20 2015

    "Samsung will also reportedly release both the Galaxy S6 and its curved edge special edition with a non-removable battery due to the new manufacturing methods. If the reports are true, it could anger Samsung customers fond of the easily-replaced battery found on existing Galaxy smartphones."

  • When we compare Apple’s P/E ratio to that of the S&P 500 index on the same basis, we find that the market continues to value Apple at a significantly discounted multiple of only 10x, compared to 17x for the S&P 500.

    We believe this P/E multiple discrepancy between Apple and the broad market index is totally irrational. It seems to us the market is somehow missing a very basic principle of valuation: when a company’s future earnings are expected to grow at a much faster rate than that of the S&P 500, the market should value that company at a higher P/E multiple. In FY 2016 and FY 2017 we forecast in our model EPS growth of over 20% per year, and if Apple introduces a TV in FY 2016 as we expect, this EPS growth accelerates to over 31% per year in our model. Because of this, we believe the market should value Apple at a P/E of at least 20x, which together with net cash of $22 per share, would value Apple shares today at $216 per share. This is not a future price target. $216 is what we think Apple is worth TODAY.

    Given that our estimated value for Apple represents an 84% price appreciation from where the common shares trade today, we continue to hope that Tim Cook and Apple’s Board of Directors, on behalf of all shareholders, take advantage of this dramatic market value anomaly and increase the magnitude and rate of share repurchases while this remarkable opportunity still exists.

    It is now plainly obvious to us that there will be no stopping Apple’s peerless innovation track record and best-in-class ecosystem of services, software, and hardware, and that Apple will continue dominating the premium smartphone market by continuing to take premium market share from Google’s Android operating system while at the same time maintaining or growing average selling prices and gross margins. We look forward to the introduction of the Apple Watch in April, as well as the launch of other new products in new categories.

  • January 13, 2015 -- StreetInsider

    Credit Suisse upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) from Neutral to Outperform Tuesday, while raising their price target to $130.00 (from $110.00).

    Analyst Kulbinder Garcha raised EPS estimate by 18%/20% to $9.44/$10.06 given a solid and sustainable iPhone volume base, sizable increase in scope for cash return and EPS momentum. The firm now sees $10 EPS power in CY16, which drives earnings momentum and the upgrade to Outperform and upside to at least $130 per share.

    The firm is raising their iPhone volumes again to 215 million units for both FY15 and FY16. They also said iPhone gross profit can grow by 42% or $18 billion over 2015. iPhone gross margin estimate move to 43.5% for FY15 and 42.6% for FY16. The firm notes two positive drivers for margins: 1) a material mix shift to 64GB devices, 2) iPhone 6 Plus could make up at least 21% of total unit mix FY15.

    On cash returns, Garcha said excessive net cash levels suggests a new $200 billion cash return program is due. The analyst notes that since the program inception, Apple has regularly raised its cash distribution target, given strong free cash flow and excessive levels of cash. The company will arrive at the 3-year anniversary in April 2015 with $143 billion of net cash, or higher than when the program was initially implemented. "Given that FCF now stands at a substantial $50 billion per year, there is a scope to increase the cash return program to $200bn and extend it an additional 3 years," he said.

    The firm sees three levers for additional upside: 1) with GM's at 40% at the corporate level, the firm said their projections could prove conservative. 2) they only assume 20 million Apple Watches at an ASP of $400 in CY2015, and GM of 50%, all of which can prove conservative. 3) they assume no significant impact from new products (large iPad, lower end iPhone, Apple TV long term) or the monitization of services, like Apple Pay, Beats, HealthKit and HomeKit.

  • Buster Hein -- Jan 23rd

    1. Apple = 50%
    2. Samsung = 26%
    3. LG = 11%
    4. Motorola = 4%
    5. HTC = 2%
    6. Nokia = 2%
    7. Amazon = 1%
    8. Blackberry = 0%

    Apple enjoyed historic sales this holiday season, and while the company won’t reveal its official earnings until January 27th, based on the latest smartphone activation report from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, Apple dominated the holiday shopping season and accounted for 50% of all smartphone activations in Q4 2014.

    Samsung lost 25% of its customers to Apple, while about 18% of LG owners switched to iPhone. Other than Apple, Samsung and LG, no other smartphone maker has more than a 5% share of U.S. smartphone sales. To help boost its marketshare, Samsung is expected to announce a new flagship Galaxy S6 at Mobile World Congress next month after sales of the Galaxy S5 disappointed.

  • ROB PRICE -- FEB. 4, 2015

    iPhone devices made up 47.7% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared with 47.6% from Android. It is, as Kantar chief of research Carolina Milanesi notes, "the slimmest 0.1% margin."

    But even accounting for margin of error, it underscores Apple's win: Data from Kantar a year ago pegged Apple's sales at 43.1% of the market, against Android's 50.3%. This rise is down to Apple's "strongest portfolio ever," Milanesi says, which capitalised on a "weaker Android offering at the premium end of the market."

    Overall, the iPhone is the best-selling smartphone in the US, followed by the Samsung Galaxy S5.

    Google's operating system has a far stronger user base in Europe, but even there it has taken a hit — dropping 3.8 percentage points to 66.1% over 2014, while iOS grew by 6.2 points.

    China is an increasingly important market for Apple. Over 2014 its share there grew from 19% to 21.5% — and with the company in the middle of an aggressive expansion in the country, its market share is likely to continue to grow markedly over 2015. Significantly, Apple is managing to attract a growing number of first-time smartphone purchasers, a valuable audience in emerging markets. In China, almost a quarter of iPhone customers were first-time buyers, up from 16.5% the previous year.

    Smartphone penetration reached 59% in the US and 67% across Europe’s top five economies while emerging markets such as Brazil (35%) and Mexico (37%) still have a long way to go.“ As the opportunity to attract first-time smartphone buyers in developed economies diminishes, retaining loyal customers is becoming as important as winning them over from competing platforms,” Milanesi concluded. “Apple’s average customer loyalty of 87% across the US and Europe certainly looks promising.” While Samsung might be feeling some pressure its brand loyalty remains by far the strongest within the Android ecosystem with an average of 62% across the US and big European markets.

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