I've been in USG for 4 years ... and sold some calls above 32. Now I'm buying them back as the stock tests 28 .... where it was 2 years ago in a much shakier housing market. The key to the housing recovery are rental rates .... the only real competition to housing ... other than's Mom's attic.
I believe the shorts are trying to do a number on the stock. Just sit tight, and wait. Tomorrow the short report for Aug. 15th is due out. Then we should see, if any significant changes have taken place. However, the after market looks very false, and this could be due to fake trades being made on purpose. Stay tuned, I smell a rat.
5/8" light sheetrock will drive revenue paired with industry price increases. Be patient and prepare for solid earnings! Buyout will not happen, but we could easily see a $40 price heading into November. Good time to buy.
I was long for over a year and decided to sell around 32. I did well but the stock had me thinking several times about where it would go. Now with the market in turmoil it looks like they are planning on taking this thing lower again till earnings for 3rd quarter. Now it is at 28.49. I was in it previously at 28. Do you think we see this back down to 26 or 27 or is this just a dip to take it higher?
just sayin - lets throw some mud on the wall...
i think WB has access to the people who can make things happen and agree with t3 - when there is a will there is a way... and i think his buy limits lift in 2017 (they were extended to then...) i have always said when he can buy it he will... but he couldn't pass on the 2?,000,000 shares at 11.40 - i could be way off but i thought he now had to wait another determined time to buy more. sometime in 2017 - anyone remember the date? i think he buys it without blinking an eye at nol's. once his peeps go over every angle to use em up... he's a buyer the next day.
USG, when running on all cylinders - is a freakin money machine!
this company profits will skyrocket when housing really makes the return from some aging inventory replacement as well as the office boom.
again just sayin... what about chris griffin? leaving at end of the year and has not cashed out any shares. he usually sells a bit before it goes down. nothing recent from him... makes me feel he thinks its going up up and away - like a beautiful, beautiful balloon... i also think he sees the writing on the wall...
gotta go now, i think its the jack D talking...
I see your point Jackie.
Perhaps sacrificing the NOLs would be of more value to BRK to get in sooner, before the next housing boom.
i see your point and agree....
just in back of my head - i think if its 2B NOL and WB has to wait a few years ; stock could go to 80 + 20% = 95 then he would be paying approx 2/3's more in price.. just to use nol's???
60MM x $50 = 3B and 60MM x $66. = 4B
also as usg uses nol's WB can buy more... or would that set off the alarms.
should get interesting and i still think 2017 will be the year USG goes to WB.
i think it has been his plan since it was just him, nat indemnity and simplot in 2001
Maybe you should read an article on MACABACUS, Net Operating Losses and get a better understansing of what you talk about.
Where there is a will there is a way. Berkshire knows how to get a deal done and make money doing it using NOLs to his benefit.
Yeah, sure. Next year if we make about 1.8 billion this year. (Hint; that is not going to happen.)
No offense, but BRK is not going to buy USG next year.
The NOL's are nowhere near exhausted and we'll likely use about 200m this year, resulting in no income tax liability.
I expect next years earnings will exceed this year's, possibly by 50% with significant continued earnings growth for the next several years. And we won't pay income tax on most of it. Which is nice.
Given all of that, the NOLS won't be used up before 2018 even with three really good years. It could take 'til 2020 or longer, depending on housing and drywall supply.
And this is all good. I for one would be really unhappy if Buffet took me out at a 20% premium right now, given that USG could make about $12 per share over the next 3 to 5 years and pay almost no income tax.
If he can't move until 2018 or later, it is possible USG trades north of $100 by that time, earning 4 to $6 /share and cash flowing 9-15. Trade at 15 times earnings of 6 is 90. Impossible? Hardly.
I am sure Warren would like to get USG south of 80, but he'll wait for at least most of the NOL's to be used up. Right now I'd be happy with 80, but I'd vote against anything under 65. If it weren't for the shareholder rights agreement and the NOLs, USG would already be trading over 40. If people thought USG was on the block I think it'd get past 50 pretty fast.
Either way, its probably a good thing for existing shareholders that he won't take it next year.
Just my $0.02.
Warren said this morning that they are negotiating several "smaller" deals right now. USG would definately qualify as a smaller deal compared to PCP. Can they buy more USG now without the negative tax issues mentioned previously?
Good call. Now the issue is will it hold 30. Probably under 30 I'll start buying again. Still ... if you know anything about this stock you know that for the first time in years its firing on all cyclinders.
After a pull back and/or a few downgrades I'm buying again.
I've been holding a long time now. I know some others have too. I don't want to jinx anything, but it looks like maybe the recovery in housing is finally starting to happen. Metcalf sounded genuinely optimistic on the conference call as opposed to being somewhat pessimistic in the past. It sounded like he was saying things were good this quarter but they're going to get a lot better.
Uh yeah that's right because if you read most news housing prices are up because of a current shortage of inventory....so unless you're talking a major recession (oops oil prices are falling) not sure I see into the same crystal ball as you're looking into...I've been waiting to be ahead in this one since February and now well a bit of space to the good side and will hold for a bit longer. We'll see 30+ on this news I think...GLTA