Sharpie, Cowboy, and other silver TA folks, Have a look at Michael Noonan's article "Silver - Charts Offer Most Reliable Information, Period" over at SafeHaven punction commercial. It is a pretty good read suggesting $20.50 as resistance and silver trend being down for an indeterminate amount of time from chart data. He explains fairly well this to be the result of manipulation. This supports what many have said on this board that manipulation is overriding charts and the manipulators want PM prices checked or lower to support their control of the entire financial system. Seems to me it is lack of law enforcement. Rule of law is not in the interest of the government, only select enforcement. Until we get law enforcement, we get manipulation.
I believe another factor working against chart interpretation is HFT. It is way more than half the trading volume and nothing more than mindless computers trading with each other. I thought markets were for people to trade, willing buyer and willing seller. If people trading is less than half the market, then TA is trying to predict algorithims and their programers, It sucks, but it is what it is.
I think all trades should be input manually. This does not prevent anyone from sophisticated computer analysis, but it does prevent front running by machines. I doubt it will happen as the exchanges are addicted to the volume and have no desire to establish fair trading above profit.
I am an old drilling hand as well. Worked jungle to arctic onshore and offshore on 4 continents. Worked on more than a few frac jobs as well. Glad that is behind me!
Just a run up to resistance sandybeachdave, then down for a couple weeks, if my chart is right, but down a couple weeks will work on a lot of peoples resolve and some will sell at the bottom and not have the courage to get back in . The trend is up since 19.23. But only resumed for the last couple days . . . .Monday will be telling, one way or the other.
Very bullish chart on Stockwits Sharpie. It would be very nice it it pans out. I am skeptical as it seems like all the bullish setiment has been wrong of late. We need something fundemental to turn things around. Till then, I am staying in the market with enough money to keep interest, but holding mostly cash.
Guys, the money is in compounding ! I am just trying to learn to compound more often and find the right trading period for myself. All traders or investors that trade more than once in a lifetime are trying to build wealth through compounding, unless they plan on buying, holding, dying and leaving whatever to their children. Do the math! 5% compounded weekly or 100% a year, not hard to set up a problem in a calculator, put 1.05 in memory and get after it. Some / most will settle for 10 to 20 percent a year, that is if they don't lose. Then decide what you want. I want to compound at close to the once a week thing or perhaps twice a week. One can win less than half of the trades, if stop losses limit the downside and one lets the winners run and still make good returns, just decide on the holding period for yourself. LOL at the pen protector in my pocket thing, Retired now, so can pursue the knowledge one needs to reach my trading goals, really my goal to learn what is to be learned and pass it on to my kids. BUT did 30 years in the oil field fighting oil, mud and grease almost every day I worked, don't remember EVER even thinking about a pen protector.
i agree. the absurdity of the whole process is beyond funny... dave seems like a well meaning, articulate dude, but definitely is carrying pen protector in his shirt pocket... lovl
This is what we use here.
Simply draw a line representing the support line back in time. The best start point would be the bottom at the end of/beginning of 2008/2009, which currently has been broken to the downside. Extend that to the last lowest price bottom.
Since support has been broken, then extend a horizontal from the highpoint in early 2008. That’s approx 17.
It is no more complicated than that. Sharpie is a day trader. These people probably do it for fun or to occupy their time, but most lose money day trading, unless they have the hardware/software to do High Frequency Trading (HFT). Certainly People like John Paulson have that available to them. However, consider the fact that Paulson is LOSING money in the PM market.
The best way to predict where things are headed is to consider the fact that we are dealing with fiat money. Markets are being manipulated by the Fed. That will continue, just like every previous time in history, until hyper inflation arrives. The exact point is unknown, BY ANYBODY. But it should be obvious to those that have dealt in these markets over, say 10 years, that the banking elitists, political scientists, politicians and their media lackeys are using fiat money to depress the price of PMs. So when seeming double bottoms occur, which could very well be by “chart painting”, that’s when their virtual PM mining operations take place by breaking to the downside what normally would be expected to be a bottom (or top if the trend line is overhead).
This Fibonacci stuff is pure voodoo.
By “virtual PM mining operations” is meant manipulation of the PM markets to draw from the small fry into the hands of the elitists in the financial sector. This knowledge is what is required to expose the limitations of technical analysis, including Fibonacci voodoo which mostly is applied by day traders.
Posted a $SLW Wave 4 chart to Stocktwits dave34. Cowboy, I think one has to wait until Wave 2 is in place to determine the Wave three length. Then one knows wave one length and a place to start wave three. W1 X 1.62 = W3 length. W3 length + time from end of W2 = end time of W3. In this case about 12:30 Christmas eve about 1/2 hour before the close of the market that day, maybe time for some or all of W4 in that 30 minutes, but I have drawn W4 to be on Thursday the 26th. Grin, now I need to find a way to find wave 1's length from the start price of W1. W 5 often = W1's length.
farther to fall...too bad you guys lost your shirts this year..maybe you have learned your lesson..get in on AVNR, ARIA and AMRN..that trio should help you in the weeks ahead.
Thanks for sharing that. Each and every application for our product is a boon to our business. And when it is actually a beneficial use, unlike building Tomahawk cruise missiles, for example, it is a sorely needed added plus in my view.
RSI was higher at 19.91 than at 20.11 ( 10 min scale ), rsi often falls off for the 5th wave. I'll see 20.11 as Wave one until it proves otherwise. Count 1 2 i ii, I think silver will trade up enough Sunday night and Monday morning early for price to gap up Monday morning. Guessing 20.20
If I had to pick one chart now though, it would put W3 at 20.54 and W5 at 21.17 (our favorite range...lol). The charts that have been within pennies in this trading range are the very first charts based off the bottom of the day price points...ie..in this case, 19.52 - 19.91 for W1
Yeah, have that chart set up with bottom to Gap fill this morning as W1 count. Have 4 various chart possibilities and want to review before announcing and committing to said correct chart.
most of the mines they stream from are base metal mines producing copper. Copper has been moving up lately as it is an industrial metal. Silver is produced at the base metal mines almost like a "waste product". Rather than throw it away, they got cash up front for their waste and then sell it at $4/oz to boot.
The 3 minute time scale often works with multiples of 9, 18 27 36 45 54 etc. but requires the use of a calculator when the time runs into hours and days. Leads to cycle theory. Fib arcs etc
Gap fill may call W1, fib from there calls 20.92 for W3, fib from 20. 90 calls abt 21.77 for 5 of C. The i of the run to the one at 20.11 may be buried in the noise down around 19.64
Thanks for that. I've just recently tried using the Fib time ratios in conjunction with the Elliott Waves peaks and bottoms, but just starting to learn and not very adept at it.
No recent insights, just labeling the A B count and waiting for the C Wave 1 to start the EW 5 count.
I've tried Gann Sq of 9 , works sometimes with days, so far I haven't learned to get results with a 24 hour charting period using minutes, 10 minutes etc. Slow day , trying some odd stuff. Fib time tool called the low at 1:15, but not the high at 10.45 and of course I want something to call the highs and lows. Slow start up, with Christmas day the IV wave may extend to Friday 27th. What do you use? any recent insights?