Danial Boorstin once wrote “I write to discover what I think.”.
Accordinglyt, I hope your article was helpful to you in summarizing all you know about GTAT for yourself and it will be invaluable to all of us as a likewise comprehensive summary of all things GTAT.
How much do you have on risks and downsides for balance (Hyperion, world removing Solar Energy subsidies, larger short position who have some control of the share price, etc.)?
For me, it is still about timing. I have no doubt that GTAT will be a winner but there will be some ugly earnings reports along the way. These will test the current GTAT shareholders who know about this, the shorts who will try to use these to cover lower..........and then how to attract the new shareholders who will try to 'time' GTAT purchases.
The Hyperion is larger than I envisioned. Great automation. I'm wondering how many they plan on
building for the Mesa plant. Any ideas?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Go to YouTube and type in Twin Creeks Hyperion. There's a great video interview with the old CEO
of Twin Creeks explaining his technology, costs, and markets. Pretty amazing stuff. You can imagine the
flexible solar panel as a sapphire laminate (laugh). In addition, I wasn't aware of the cost reductions in solar
panel productions by this thing. GT got this tech for 10 mil. What a steal!
I've always done searches on GT and hyperion but this Twin Creeks interview is great ("Twin Creeks Unveils Tool to Slash Solar Costs". I like this guy: Siva Sivaram; i'd hope he was pulled into the GT team. I still am anxious to know what the yields are on the Hyperion - a.k.a. "does it really work.... and does it work well?" The company has shared nothing on the progress on Hyperion since the acquisition. And now that they are in the materials business, for Apple, I'm thinking that they should keep this tool and just sell the materials otherwise they'd better sell these for a gargantuan sum.
Do a search on Siva Sivaram's interview called "Bringing solar manufacturing back to the U.S". This is really good. shows exactly what Hyperion does and he shows a sample. Hyperion could turn the whole industry upside down. GT has a very powerful piece of IP now.
Google Mark Gomes. He picks low priced stocks and has had a great deal of success. He openly talks about his picks after he has gotten his subscribers in first. One of his picks is related to GTAT.
I completely agree. GTAT acquired both Hyperion and HiCz. Both of these companies was planning to be a materials producer with its superior technology. Combined, I think it makes an even more compelling product due to price, efficiency and competitive advantage over competing products.
mungee, not sure investors appreciate the potential of Hyperion. It would be good to have an article on SA that covers it.
Comments by TG during the last financial results CC: "One of the most exciting new technologies in our portfolio is Hyperion, which has applications across a broad spectrum of crystalline materials. We have made significant progress producing ultrathin silicon wafers with this technology, and are working to develop applications for the solar industry with a well-known solar cell manufacturer in Asia. We have also made similar progress developing low-cost composite glass and thin sapphire structures that we believe will have broad use in consumer applications. While still in the early stages, we also have begun to develop the exfoliation techniques necessary to create a thin, relatively inexpensive silicon carbide wafer, which would have promise in the power electronics industry, where 4-inch wafers cost upwards of $1,000 a piece. We expect our pace of development with Hyperion to accelerate, as we now have our preproduction generation tool in operation. This tool is protected by over 50 issued and pending equipment and process patents, and we believe this tool is the first-of-its-kind in the world.
We continue to target market availability of Hyperion in the 2015 time frame. We continue to believe that once mature, Hyperion could rival the size of our PV business in its peak."
Solar, consumer electronics, and power electronics are just a few of the application markets. At some point GTAT stock could trade like that of a biotech company that has developed a cure.
You are right. He is also an RPI grad if there are any of you out there:
Dr. Siva Sivaram is the senior vice president of memory technology for SanDisk, responsible for the ongoing development of the company's industry-leading NAND flash memory, as well as the development of next-generation technologies, including 3D NAND (BiCS) and 3D ReRAM. Sivaram has over 27 years of experience in semiconductors, 3-D memory architectures, process technology, equipment and materials. He has held executive positions at Intel and Matrix Semiconductor (Matrix), and at SanDisk after its acquisition of Matrix. Additionally, he founded and led Twin Creeks Technologies, a solar panel and equipment company, has served as a board member for a number of start-up firms, was entrepreneur-in-residence at Crosslink Capital and XSeed Capital, a research scholar at Matsushita Electric, and an adjunct faculty member at San Jose State University.
Sivaram has published numerous technical papers as well as a textbook on chemical vapor deposition, and he holds several patents. He earned his doctorate and master’s degrees in materials science from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and is a Distinguished Alumnus of the National Institute of Technology, Tiruchi, India, where he earned his bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering.
Very exciting stuff...
The Hyperion sounds revolutionary.
I think we'll see an update on the progress of their R&D efforts within a few weeks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
johnie I have it covered. Only thing missing is possibly the kitchen sink. I did not get into HVPE which falls under the LED business line.
Haschultz - 2015 revenue is going to mostly backlog conversion from ASF and PV. Powertec phase and full year of apple and then a small piece from Hyperion , solar equipment refresh and Sic. There is not much risk believe it or not in 2015. Solar equipment is at 90% utilization and LED is at full utilization. Hyperion is in pre-production phase and will be ready to go for 2015. Hyperion will help out PV, Sic and sapphire laminates for the iWatch.
You can't really tell by just glancing at the phone, which is fine, but when you put the phone under a light and look at it under different angles, you can see that there are scratches on the phone that most likely have been caused by my keys or some mundane item in my pocket. I'm not that upset about it because I have to actually put some effort into identifying them, HOWEVER, with the advent of biometric scanning on mobile devices other technologies that are sure to depend on the clarity and precision of a scratch free screen this is a HUGE problem for Corning and their Gorilla Glass. I am pretty cautious with my phone short of putting it in a bulky industrial otter box or slapping an additional screen on my phone, but why should I have to do this?
This is Gorilla Glass 3, and they still can't eliminate scratches from chemically treated glass?
I'm not an overly picky customer, but when you pay hundreds of dollars for a mobile device you expect that it will have some durability, and GG3 while it's a nice addition for mobile manufactures since it's cost has been far less expensive than sapphire, but what if the price of sapphire came down to costs comparable to GG3? $3 per screen for GG3? $30 for a sapphire screen? Sure, it makes no sense for manufactures to implement a sapphire screen and cut deep into their margins, but what if.... . AND I KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY.... but what if some company* out there were able to produce some form of sapphire screens that were cost competitive with a far inferior product like chemically treated glass?
It's no secret that synthetic sapphire has been a desired commodity among the mobile manufactures as a way to differentiate their devices from the competition by way of durability and quality, but now with advent of new technologies that require a scratch free surface is quickly becoming a necessity.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Excuse the poor grammar, but I think it gets my message across.
I meant to say that while GG is a nice addition for mobile manufacturers since its costs are so much relatively lower, it is short changing the customer from having a quality product that doesn't scratch. This is a pretty big deal for most people.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What's the concensus on price targets give them or stay hush? I'm at .27 eps on 800m in 2014 using management guidance. 2015 taking into account management clues and backlog assumptions and apple business my midpoint is is $2.35B in sales and $2.11 EPS for 2015 - Apple revenue is $1.3B of the $2.35B.
I agree with you BUT I also have conviction that the once the STORY becomes reality then this will be an amazing win for all invested. Hope it happens soon for all of us. Personally I am holding a core position and will double up at least when it becomes clear that they are executing on all fronts.
Your efforts are appreciated and your conviction is commendable. Lets hope they deliver on all fronts.
It's a bit disconcerting that they have provided no color on a thriving solar sector. Apple is just one part of the business albeit a vital ingredient to 2014 and beyond
I personally would not give price targets. There are too many factors not related to the company that could influence multiples to earnings and price targets. jmho