Been trading this for about a year now. Been in and out about 5 times and done well each time. However, this time it just seems to be a slow burn. Politics are so unpredictable, and that's what got me this time. I got in, then a week or so later the Iran thing happened. Now stuck at 13.70 average on about 1600 shares. The LA sale would be big but who knows how much it will drop until then. For instance, it could drop to 12 then when they make the sale go up to 13 then stay around there....thus leaving all of us who have an avg higher than 13 screwed. That is my fear: how much will it drop before the sale. and can the sale boost it more than 3 bucks per share within a few days after the sale?
All of this should be 'refinanced' now while rates are very low. I know less credit worthy homeowners using drywall, 2 X 4s, and linoleum as the collateral for refi :)
Zack, How long have you been doing this?. I can tell you this right when you ve had enough and you pull the trigger , The next day the turn around begins. When sfy sells the LA property it will fly be patient. I've learned to trust my research not my feelings been burned to many times by getting mad , emotional and impulsive. I look back 1 month later to find I was right all along on my research and bailed to early then kicked myself. No more.
7.125% senior notes due in 2017 $ 250,000
8.875% senior notes due in 2020 $ 222,147
7.875% senior notes due in 2022 $ 405,387
Bank Borrowings $ 39,400
Long-Term Debt $ 916,934
With proceeds from C. La asset sale SFY should redeem bank borrowings & 2020 notes (highest priced) for aprroximnate cost of $261m. The rest of the proceeds should be thrown at the Eagle Ford to increase growth.
Wall St. would then get everything they are looking for, reduced debt levels and higher growth.
I found the offer letter from Scotia Waterous online. Looks like November was the deadline to have the bids in by so I guess we should be hearing something soon.
The letter was interesting not just because of the timeline included but because it gave a nice outline of the assets and included recent SFY wells in the areas for sale. The asset quality looks pretty good, decent IP rates, high oil content, lots of contiguous acreage with stacked pay potential in an area with good takeaway capacity and that sells at LLS pricing.
I could not find any comparable sales in this formation so I have no idea of the price swift will receive. I would estimate a price between $300 - $400m. Anything above this would be fantastic and really make a dent in the debt.
Here are the company specific events that need to occur to move SFY's stock price upwards:
1) CENTRAL LA ASSET SALE - Need to get a VERY good price and use the funds to a) pay down some debt and b) accelerate Eagle Ford growth
2) INCREASE IP RATES - SFY did a good job in raising IP rates over 10% last year, they need a minimum of the same increase this year. Mr Market will then believe they are cracking the code.
3) POSITIVE NIOBRARA RESULTS - Good IP rates, Good Oil ratio, Good EURs. A sale of these assests for a great price would be even more positive (but highly unlikely).
4) JV PARTNER FOR SUBSALT EXPLORATION - An announcement of a JV with a big reputable co. and a timeline would be great.
Of all of these number 1 is paramount. SFY needs to reduce debt and accelerate growth, period.
These are just SFY specific events, on the macro level then a rise in commodity prices would lift all boats. SFY would benefit hugely from a rise in NG prices which I think is coming.
I met him in the elevator at Dolby "Brick Bldg" the first time when i was working at Dolby and as I identified him and said" you are Mr. Dolby, Ray Dolby aren't you" he was the first to put his hand out for a hand shake. He struck me as a decent good man. RIP Mr. Dolby.
Don't hope that SFY may have encountered some problems also;:
Pioneer Natural Resources announces severe winter weather has impacted production and drilling operations in Texas (178.91 -4.63)
Co announced that severe winter weather in Texas has significantly impacted the Company's production and drilling operations in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp, Eagle Ford Shale and Barnett Shale Combo plays. The Spraberry/Wolfcamp area has been especially hard hit as heavy icing and low temperatures have resulted in extensive power outages, facilities freeze-ups, trucking curtailments and limited access to production and drilling facilities. An extensive recovery period is expected, and it is likely to be a few weeks before the full impact of this event can be determined.
This unforeseen severe weather event was not accounted for in Pioneer's production and financial guidance for the fourth quarter of 2013, which was provided in the Company's earnings release on November 4, 2013. Pioneer expects to update its fourth quarter guidance once the full impact of anticipated weather-related downtime and associated repairs in the areas that were affected can be determined.
I'm now starting to think we'll hit 12.50s by early next week. If the overreaction selling continues, I may just sell for a tax loss myself then buy back in low 12s. It's dropping much much harder than I expected.
Let me rephrase that, it's worth $18 in 6-12 months from now.
If you're LT (more than 6months) then buy AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW! This is worth at least 18 within a year. But if you are looking to swing this, do not buy.
Nope, no need to shake out. This is simply based on politics. Investors are selling because they believe recent policy changes will lower the price of oil. Are they right? Who knows. The Iran/UN resolution is for six months. That's a fact. Not sure if it will last that long due to Israel being upset with the US. But then again can Israel make the US/UN do a complete turnaround after this deal has already been inked? Probably not. IMO, you'll see the price go between 13-13.70 for a while UNLESS Swift comes out with some significant positive news.
Please re-read your own post then ask yourself if you would risk your money based on that information. You are investing based on the action of the stock price IN THE PAST. THE PAST! That's like saying, "well, I found a dollar on the ground yesterday, so I'll find another dollar on the ground today." Read some David Hume...he'll explain why that logic is terrible to base decisions upon.