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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

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  • U.S. and coalition military forces have continued to attack Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists in Syria and Iraq, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve officials reported today.
    Officials reported details of the latest strikes, which took place yesterday, noting that assessments of results are based on initial reports.

  • Over the decades, many Middle Eastern Christians, seeing the rise of political Islam and the intensification of savage sectarian wars, have simply left. Lebanon’s Christians, once more than half the populatio

  • rebel representative said reports that the group was Western-backed were likely the reason behind the kidnapping

  • Refugees from war-torn Syria claim racism in Germany has become so extreme they want to go home as a growing anti-Muslim movement sees soaring attacks on foreigners.
    The nation has been gripped by a spate of anti-foreigners rallies, violence and arson attacks against refugee homes or would-be shelters as hundreds of thousands seek refuge in the country.
    This year has already seen about 200 arson and other attacks against refugee housing while support for anti-Muslim movement, Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West (PEGIDA), has been growing.

  • Special correspondent Jane Ferguson introduces us to a Free Syrian Army commander who has received training by the U.S. The injured rebel said he's eager to rejoin the fight after U.S. and Turkey intensify their efforts against the Islamic State

  • statement from the militant group warned others against taking part in "the American project".
    Earlier reports said the leader of the so-called Division 30 and other members had been taken but this has been denied by the Pentagon

  • Nearly 40 government and opposition fighters have been killed as Syrian regime forces pushed rebels back from an area bordering President Bashar al-Assad's heartland, a monitor said Saturday

  • One of their leaders, a Syrian Army defector who recruited them, was abducted in Syria near the Turkish ...
    Dozens dead as Syria army 'pushes back rebels near regime heartland

  • Iraq's Kurdish regional government called on the Kurdistan Worker's Party to "withdraw" from Iraq's Kurdish territory Saturday to prevent civilian deaths amid a campaign of Turkish airstrikes targeting the group.

    A statement from the office of Kurdish President Massoud Barzani said the Kurdistan Workers' Party, known as the PKK, "should withdraw its fighters from the Kurdish region so to ensure the civilians of Kurdistan don't become victim of that fighting and conflict."

  • It is tough for me to tell as it is definitely not apples to apples properties or operating structures.
    They have sunk nearly $1.6B in Cap Ex into Eagle Ford in the past 5.5 years. I would assume at the very least $1.2+ into the AWP properties. So there is lots of infrastructure there, lot's of running room, and their production rates on wells keep getting better and better. The major thing I noticed between Swift's AWP and Goodrich's numbers was the booked reserves, the well counts, and the operating and revenue % interests. AWP Gas and Oil properties have tremendous running room and the wells they are drilling now are 1.5 - 2X more productive not that they have the techniques and windows identified.
    I have always thought their ability to shift their production mix relatively quickly would allow them to survive the worst of times and I do think they are a much safer bet than some of the other small and mid E&Ps. Without the hedging they had to get leaner cost wise well ahead of some other players and they have shifting the revenue mix of Gas / Liquids from 30/70 in 2014 to approximately 55/45 in 2015. So while other companies Nat Gas production is declining rapidly in Texas Swifts is rising rapidly. Sets up well with an increase in Natural Gas Prices which is what they need. $3.50 to $4 gas and many problems are solved. Just my thoughts.

  • On Aug. 2, 1990, Iraq invaded neighboring Kuwait, putting four armored divisions, right, with more than 100,000 troops into the small country. Iraqi helicopters brought special forces into Kuwait City. Resistance was mostly ineffective at slowing the invasion. Most of the Kuwaiti leadership and air force barely escaped to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. After one day, Iraq controlled Kuwait. Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait under the pretense of punishing it for stealing Iraqi oil. Soon pillaging and violence were committed against civilians

  • Gas flow to Turkey from Iran is likely to resume on Sunday, an official from the state pipeline operator Botas said. The pipeline was attacked in the eastern province of Agri, halting the flow. Iran is the second biggest natural gas supplier to Turkey. Saboteurs attacked a pipeline carrying natural gas from Iran to Turkey in Turkey's eastern province of Agri late, halting the flow,

  • he government of Iraq's Kurdistan region condemned on Friday the Kurdish Workers Party's (PKK) bombing of a pipeline used to ship oil from the region to Turkey.
    The government, in a statement, said the attack took place against the pipeline inside the Turkish territories.

  • The company said production and other operations are proceeding without interruption and in a "safe and secure manner." It's the second company to issue an operational update after NATO minister met this week at the request of Turkey to discuss regional security issues

  • Encouraged by more international interest in purchasing its oil, coupled with the apparent failure of the federal Iraqi government to provide agreed-upon budget .

  • Iraq's southern oil exports rose in July to a record average of 3.064 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.02 million in June, officials from the state-run South Oil CO. said on Saturday

  • Reply to

    Selling hard at the end of day again.

    by loumor1 Jul 31, 2015 4:11 PM

    ddwraiggoch,

    I looked back at your prior posts, and you seem to swing between declaring that Swift is heading for BK and declaring that Swift is a steal at these depressed prices, and will rescue itself with its strong suit, drilling its best gas properties. One of your quotes from mid July is below. What gives? Have you lost all confidence since the Lazard announcement. Thanks.

    "Swift has the best drilling team in South Texas. Their efficiencies and expertise will boost production and cash flow dramatically, when applied to the best oil & gas leases on the books. Management at the top has been delinquent and irresponsible. Drilling is the bright spot in the company. It will rescue it."

  • Reply to

    Selling hard at the end of day again.

    by loumor1 Jul 31, 2015 4:11 PM

    Cmon-- The bonds indeed appear to be forecasting bankruptcy. Why would there not be account taken for the possibility, for example, of a sale of the entire AWP property, whcih would seem to retain substantial value. The company could also increase the SAKA JV to 50/50, or sell off the Louisiana properties (albeit at or near the bottom of the market unfortunately). It would seem than any of these moves would be enough to survive the bank line redetermination and buy sufficient time to get a signficant drilling program on Oro Grande up and running. Do you view these scenarios as unrealistic,or just postponing the inevitable so they are not priced in? Thanks for your insights.

  • SD, is your suggestion that AWP is worth around 600m? How do you factor the quality of the rock and cost of extraction, which seem to be meaningfully inferior to lower Fasken?

    Also, what do we know about the Upper EF Fasken property and Almos, for which IRR figures do not appear to be published? Are we to assume that they are like the lower EF Fasken properties, with an IRR of 65% at 3 dollar gas? A cynical poster recently suggested that it was a sham to list the upper EF property in the Fasken box, as if it had similar properties to lower Fasken. Thanks.g

  • Hi Gassy,

    Based on my discussions with IR, I understand that current liquidity is just over 100m. The company significantly frontloaded much of its drilling in the first half. Apparently the company could defer a significant amount of the capex palnned for 2H to early 2016 without a signficant decrease in production numbers.

    I also understand that Oro Grande is not close to coming onto the balance sheet because they are not drilling there yet. Drilling 3-4 wells would be enough apparently, but they don't have the luxury at the moment to undertake the greater cost and risk (OG is deeper and therfore more costly to drill than Fasken, and it would take several wells to perfect the technique to minimize costs). In the current liquidity crisis, they need to stick with the sure thing, which is lower Fasken.

    Furthermore, Terry's comments from the last call suggest that the appraisal would be done in conjunction with a JV or drillco. At present, there are apparently multiple interested parties they are in discussions with, but nothing would be announced until towards the end of the year unfortunately, and it would not involve a signifcant upfront payment in any event. It would be nice to think of an imminent announcement of a SAKA-like deal on Oro Grande bringing instant liquidity, but apparently that not the situation at all, so we are mostly looking at asset sales.

    Based on your extrapolations from recent sales, what was your bottom line conclusion as to the value of AWP? I understand that AWP would be in the mix for a potential sale. Given that its IRR is far lower than lower Fasken, they could sell this perhaps for a couple hundred million? That might not be enough for a major drilling program, but it might be enough to survive the bank line redetermination, start a joint drilling effort on Oro Grande, and hope that nat gas starts to rise as winter demand sets in, coal plants shut down, and LNG exports start to take out escess capacity.

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