Err...you are using the term black swan event incorrectly. A high PE momentum (or more correctly no earnings company) stock having its price fall is not a highly unlikely unpredictable event. There are many examples of this.
Dude - just call a spade a spade. Your on the short side and you like to cherry pick random bits of information that re-enforce your position. Case in point, you are taking 1 analyst opinion over the many others that have stock prices targets in the high 20s or 30 range. If you are a true technical analysis person, none of this noise would impact your opinion - just focus on the chart.
Means nothing. C-Executives at my former job sold tens of millions of stock in the $40 range. Company ended up getting bought out in the $60 range. Myself, I sold a portion of my shares in the $20-30 range.
Rich Tullo is the analyst for Albert Fried a firm which has a $23 target for P
I have thoroughly read the SEC filings and followed the PRs and CCs - what I am looking for are potential FUTURE disruptors to P's ability to monetize, and the many competitors P has have that ability in some shape or form
Im also a technician and am waiting for the black swanny event to cause the institutional holders to dump
Sentiment: Strong Sell
longs should be more worried about a technical reversal occurring in this stock, and very real possibly
that by the time the major holders are done lightening up it will be half what it is now.
at that point, as with apple, it will have to rise 100% again just to get back to current levels.
that's pretty much what i see now.
All companies are worried about managing their COGS. If you look at their financial information which they post online, COGS as % have lowered vs last year and growing slower than revenues. Translation: GM% is increasing, not decreasing.
Dude - do you do any of your own research or just pick and grab information that sounds good to your point of view? and who the heck is Rich Tullo?
per Rich Tullo:
"Our logic, if a user downloads a performance on iTunes and listens 100 times the cost is roughly $0.013 and the royalty to the artists is likely in the $0.005 to $0.007 range. So on an apple to apples basis, artists are getting significantly more from Spotify and Apple via downloads and file sharing; we think the iTunes radio rate card is marginally better for artists as compared to Pandora." "We expect the Sound Exchange and the music industry to push hard on making rate concessions because artists may be going into the negotiation from the position that PANDORA NEEDS TO PAY 4X TO 10X MORE PER PERFORMANCE," he added." - emphasis added
Sentiment: Strong Sell
8 bucks, how about creating a flickr account under your yahoo ID? Take a screen shot of your position, post it and then this #$%$ match can be finished with.
P@8 is a poster with multiple aliases. He was around prior to that ID being created and posting under other ID's (easy to tell based on his repetitive nonsense using the same verbiage). He created that alias simply to claim he's in at $8 so he could boast and be an arrogant douche.
Umm, not that it proves that the original poster bought at that point in time. If you look at the join date and check the stock price, it's in the $8 range.
That is literally the same type of posts that shorts get tired of. Factless, baseless, valuation-ignorant, competitive dynamic agnostic, etc. comments that only play off one thing -- momentum. Just because you see the price go up does not mean it will continue to do so. I swear to you if you stay in this you will lose your money. This stock is being pumped as a momentum vehicle and anyone who doesn't get out at the right time will get steamrolled as this goes back to the mid-teens where it belongs. Cheers.
i am not day trading this stock, and so these projections are not really very relevant when looking for a price
on an instantaneous basis.
for example, if i were to say, (and i will right now) the remainder of the day will see:
very light volume to the upside
very strong volume to the downside
if the volume does not appear, it could drift to close above 29
if the volume end of day does appear, it could plummet to close as low as 27.50 or even a bit lower
so how do you nail a closing price?
im guessing though at 27.70 with strong volume down at the end of the day.
if you are day trading on my posts though, i feel sorry for anyone who does that with anyone's posts.
my thesis is a short to medium term one.
you are really injecting a lot of bias here... spoitfy is a major competitor with much better music platform/ecosystem that contains radio as just one of many features. up until now not having a free mobile offering made them a non-competitor in the mobile free music world. so, i completely disagree with you, there is now a new competitor for pandora and it's a major threat
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I can't imagine the information is going to much different than the from the quarterly conference call. Unless they release a K statement, they can't talk about current financial trends for the quarter.
Mobile rates have been increasing every quarter this fiscal year thru Q3 with Desktop have been relatively flat. Mobile still lags desktop rates by $18 or so. I believe last quarter the RPM was $43 with mobile around $38.
The opportunity becomes terrestrial is in the $70 range, so if there is a transition from terrestrial, numbers should go up. Analysis of spending for companies is much healthier with Pandora or any internet streaming company vs terrestrial.