Pandora = MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED!!! At any moment, once the Pandora, Dow, and Nasdaq PUT WRITERS finish DUPING the Pandora BASHER SUCKERS, then Pandora will rejoin the longstanding Dow/Nasdaq SUPER BULL market UPTREND....and when it does, the great Pandora will GAP UP repeatedly, WIPING OUT most of the Pandora 2015 PUTS in a heartbeat!
iTunes Radio failed because... “Apple was focused on a lot of other things”
OK Pussycat, you win, that’s now one of the Top 10 dumbest things I’ve ever read on this board.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Pandora bought KXMZ to demonstrate to the CRB the massive differences in royalty rates paid by a provider for the same song on the same device but one coming from terrestrial radio and the other coming from internet radio. Now they will both be coming from Pandora Media Inc. who will pay two very different rates for the same song played. Pandora wants to clearly establish themselves as “Radio” and therefore pay the same rate as Radio.
Pandora never profits from its business. It has negative operating & net margin consistently. There is no economic of scale either. Its operating margin and net margin became more negative as revenue increased more. See data below.
year 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-12
revenue 138 274 427 921
operating margin % -0.2 -4.0 -8.8 -3.3
net margin % -0.65 -7.24 -8.93 -3.30
People may point out that the latest annual report shows improvement in profitability. However, when digging into the details, it reveals some special accounting treatments. First, its fiscal year end is shifted from Jan to Dec. Second, there was one time favorable treatment at 2014 Q4 boosting extra positive income ($12.3M), which was paid back into extra negative in 2015 Q1 (-$48.3M). At TMM count, net margin was - 5.2%.
Buying ratio stations and favorable license deals did not help them as people wished in 2013, and only seeing more negative profitability in the same year and falling stock price as follow. The accounting tricks in 2014 did some magic as seeing the stock price stopped free-fall in 2015. However, we don’t see this short trend can sustainable.
When a business is in negative operating margin, it does not have much thing to do, as it cannot leverage which will turn more negative. If cannot find a profitable business model, the only option is either to steal others money or close the shop.
* All data is from Pandora's financial statement shown in Yahoo Finance.
If so, why hasn't Apple done it with iTunes Radio in the last two years?
“1 - apple was focused on a lot of other things”
Are you serious? So Apple failed with iTunes Radio because they were busy with a lot of other things? Really?
Perhaps they failed because they had a poor product while during that same time period Pandora continued to add active listeners, having a great product.
“2- pandora did not make any money in their random streaming business for 15 years”
And so that’s why Apple failed to add listeners with their product and failed?
“3 - spotify had confirmed that there is money to be made in streaming and that pandora business model(random songs) was the problem, not the delivery approach (streaming music)”
First, since you the phrase “random songs” it’s obvious that you haven’t done any hands-on experience with Pandora or have general knowledge of the MGP. And how has Spotify “confirmed that there is money to be made in streaming”, they continue to lose money… lots of money. But I do agree with you that Spotify and Pandora are very different: subs vs. free add supported. And Pandora is the ONLY one building internet “Radio” and focusing on the Local Ad Market.
I wish you the best, but you may want to ask why does Pandora have about 80 million active listeners and what’s the advantage of the Local Ad Market.
BTW, I hold a Long position and have added to my position on pull backs all the way down to the $14s.
WARNING to Pandora amateur BASHER RETARDOS: After re-examining the Pandora technicals, now looking for a 120% PLUS return into the close of the year....a superior yield that will match or exceed the great NFLX, another one of my NO-RISK Dow/Nasdaq favorites!!!!!
I see a lot of rhetoric being tossed about but little discussion of the facts, I will try again for someone to challenge the FACTS as I have come to see them.
The fact is that BEFORE Apples entrance into streaming music, Pandora grew revenue YoY by 19% 1Q15, but grew Expenses by 25% (SG&A up 38%). With the expense line total larger than the total revenue line, you have a major compounding problem. The reason SG&A was up 38% is because of $23 M in stock based compensation and that compensation will increase by 35% to $31 M in Q2 (out of control dilution).
Pandora is in a position where expenses are out pacing revenues and NOW the 300 LB Gorilla “APPLE” enters the market:
Apple can lose money while building its base
Apple can spend more
Apple has huge R&D
Apple has more global influence
Apple has the largest library of music
Apple will attract the most prominent artists
Apple has a loyal base with multiple platforms
Apple users have the convenience of a compatible eco system
Apple products convey quality and status
Apple stock is owned by just about everyone
Blackberry had a very loyal following and huge niche, look at their revenue stream after Apples entrance into the cell phone market in 2007. I believe the same will happen to Pandora as Apple’s “new base” will come from somewhere. So shareholders should enjoy whatever Q2 earnings bring to them, because heading toward the holiday season that 300 LB Gorilla is going to gain momentum.
Pandora tried and tried and never find out how to make money. It tries to get the radio content business, however these radio businesses themselves don't make money either. A loser buying losers is still a loser.
if u look through past heavy pumps, they always pump strong before some really bad news coming
i'm curious what are the bad news this time around..
Pandora = MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED!!! At any moment, once the Pandora, Dow, and Nasdaq PUT WRITERS finish DUPING the Pandora BASHER SUCKERS, then Pandora will rejoin the longstanding Dow/Nasdaq SUPER BULL market UPTREND....and when it does, the great Pandora will GAP UP repeatedly, WIPING OUT most of the Pandora 2015 PUTS in a heartbeat!!
pandora's cfo is dealing red herrings left and right
i am sorry for him, bcz he gets pushed out by the pandora management to generate *some* story to keep sellers at bay
but the truth is all the stories he spins get gloomier and gloomier by the day
a dead cat bounce for pps here and there, but the pps is sailing inexorably lower
you can only imagine what's in his heart.. i guess something similar to the titanic captain once the last lifeboat sailed away..
story has it that he was singing..
does pandora have that tune ?
Too many players in this field now.. Sold and bought into SPLIF and Marijuana food dosage testing company.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Reply to Good news for Longs. / 3bagger? by jondeerecowboy •Mar 26, 2015 3:50 PM
jondeerecowboy • Apr 12, 2015 10:44 AM Flag
Shorts will have fun this week keeping Pandora under $30.00
This was a classic from this guy.
A P In Singapore wannabe!
ant some advice from one of the most dominant music streaming businesses?
Don’t start a music streaming business.
Mike Herring, CFO of Pandora, shared that advice with the crowd at Pandoland late Wednesday morning during a fireside chat led by PandoDaily’s David Holmes
Herring said his advice wasn’t meant to keep competitors out, but rather to give entrepreneurs the opportunity to thrive in other areas while the big players – Pandora, Spotify, Apple, etc. – figure out how to make the financial work.
“The royalty situation’s going to get worse before it gets better,” Herring said.
Those complicated financials were key to the early parts of Herring and Holmes’ conversation, which started with acknowledgment of people’s perceptions of royalties paid by streaming services.
Sentiment: Strong Sell