seriously....this is huge.
rocco will be out in full force. (after all, he's indie at heart most likely, and will react emotionally)
p will in my view now begin its serious decline, as the institutions digest this news, and begin
to model the future headwinds from this news.
really, a million albums in less than a week?
more users will begin to migrate to apple, and eventually, quite a few, perhaps 50-75% of all apple
that presents (with half of pandora on apple) a 25-40% decline.
back in the days of vinyl developed the all inclusive "record stores", you would go there to buy anything.
like pandora, the initial drivers were diversity. jazz, and classical, and indie, as with pandora were door openers, bringing in a crowd to purchase all kinds of music.
initially, pandora got it's listeners from the indie, jazz, etc. crowd, not the flock of hit song listeners, and after
growing enough along with streaming itself, momentously attracted the mainstream listener.
so what happened?...
when cassettes came out, and business matured, other companies realized they could sell 75% or more
of their music without even carrying any of the stuff the small demographic listened to, and stores popped
up all over malls, with some inventory, but mainly relying on sales of the top twenty releases for almost all
of their revenue. (key operative here...revenue). major music stores started to decline, as most of the sales
revenue was picked off by the "hit music" stores.
telling? what is apple doing here. going directly to the stuff that almost everyone hears (whether they want
to or not, they'll hear it on the background of a commercial eventually)
as well, offering musicians a serious promotional chance at sales.
this is huge, and demonstrates what apple does best. takes something popular, and builds the best system around it, and profits.
to who's detriment?... who do you think. what would it cost for pandora to get an exclusive like apple just did?
would beyonce, or led zeppelin, or any other major mainstream musician stream their concert for free so pandora can get a gazillion users, and the musician can get a chance at being streamed a zillion times
so they can get a portion of royalty amounting to 20 bucks, or 120 bucks in the end?. go on the road for years
and hope a following shows up so they can sell their cds, t-shirts, and get paid decently for the show???
this is huge... 2 year target on p - 6.00
I think the big picture is that to Apple, streaming music is a means to an end, and they can afford to give it away for free through their model. Pandora will have to increasingly encroach on their service with advertising if they are to survive.
Thanks POSYCHE. was starting to have some withdrawals.
Kidding aside, thanks very much for your efforts and sharing your knowledge!
it appears apple has again cracked another model. the music streaming/sales/video model.
read the last article posted to see why.
think about it, you are a popular musician, apple has just demonstrated it can sell a million albums (not songs, albums!) in a week.
you launch first with them on iTunes, and as an exclusive, one of your new tunes is available on iradio as a teaser, to both garner listeners, and sell your album. the album comes with video as well, which is scalable to
your tv, with apple tv, as well on your iPhone, and iPad.
1. the musician makes serious money, instead of the 17.00 portion of the royalty p pays the publishers for streaming your song 17 MILLION times, as people buy your tune and get the video along with it.
2. listeners gravitate to apple radio to hear the latest releases.
3. musicians now have a shot at making some money, and the sale of songs again continues to increase
after previously beginning to stall
next post..."so why the big deal? , and a bit of previous history and demographics"
just read this apple news...
On Dec. 13, pop superstar Beyoncé surprised fans and retailers alike with the unexpected release of her fifth studio album, the self-titled, 14-track album, Beyoncé, for $15.99 as an Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) iTunes exclusive. Unlike most other iTunes albums, there is no option to purchase the tracks separately, and each track comes with an accompanying music video with three additional video clips.
It was a stunning coup by Apple -- it had secured the exclusive digital release of a high-demand album, which was not offered to brick-and-mortar retailers or other digital streaming sites such as Spotify, Rdio, and Pandora (NYSE: P ) .
there is so much to talk about here it may take me multiple posts.
while p and others struggle to find profit models that will satisfy both them and musicians, comes the news
above from apple.
this is huge for many reasons in my view, and represents the strength of having an infrastructure and model
in place to drive it's streaming and sales back and forth, along with apple tv placing video into your living room
along with your music.
see next post for discussion.
again, at a higher opening, and then touch of 27.06 early today selling of blocks.
this time a bit higher than yesterday.
a pattern seems to be developing around a range of mid 26's to upper 26's, with dips
below and dips above.
a look at the charts shows a few things:
1. money flow going out of the stock overall and has come down quite a bit.
2. volume increases on downward days and downward intraday, while the stock drifts and
is pushed up on lower volume opportunities. particularly at the end of day.
number two appears to be the main reason the stock has not caved to the sub 25 (24.50 expected
near term) level.
with p closing above 26.50 both yesterday and the previous day, i mentioned the chance of dropping
precipitously has dissapated, and indeed that has not happened.
as the range tightens, the 50 day continues it's downward trend, and should put pressure on
p to drop after the 1st of the year, but for now, it looks like the opportunity to sell above
25.00 remains to that point.
potential catalysts are the numbers end of december for listeners/hours, beats launch announcement, launch of spotify free service, iradio ads launch, international launch announcement, upgrades and downgrades.
the analyst landscape is ripe for downgrades, however i presume there will be the standard "reiterate" ratings
coaxing retail to buy the stock so institutions can continue to lighten up without p tanking.
for now, the trend remains down short term.
a close below 26.49 still represents a serious drop toward 25.00 the following day in my view.
I'll admit that when I read this I initially thought "options" #$%$000 X 100 shares. However, I find that insider selling is usually an indication that a stock has neared a top. It's a strategy.
Have you ever received stock options from a employer before? Have you looked at any other company where executives sell shares?
Selling off 10% of your shares does not qualify as "another insider getting out".
Sorry, my mistake. Accurate information, analysis using data and contrarian opinions have no place on the message board here.
I'm not cherry picking but looking at all the components that make a company's business model such a success that it deserves a PPS that will accommodate a multiple that it can grow into. I don't see any of that with Pandora especially at this lofty PPS.
Pandora has to compete with two major platforms, Apple and Google, who can place their product in every iteration of their OS with no urgency to make money off of it.
In addition there are many others with similar models and various connections that can disadvantage Pandora to keep their subscribers without a wandering ear.
I don't see Pandora with any pricing power with advertisers, any hold on their current subs, any special offering to attract the necessary expansion of subs to justify the market cap, they have zero barriers to entering their space and their first mover advantage appears to have been halted.
I don't need Pandora to be destroyed to make money. I just need the overwhelming number of institutions to use their analytics to see that it would be greedy to not step aside and take their profits while watching how this brutally competitive landscape unfold. A PPS in the teens will suit me fine. I might even go long at that point if Pandora can hold its own but I have to see it to believe it
Pandora Media's Chief Revenue Officer just cashed-in 20,000 options
John Trimble, Pandora Media's Chief Revenue Officer, recently cashed-in 20,000 options. The options were exercised at $0.16, while the sales took place at $26.64 per share, on December 16, 2013. Trimble continues to hold 200,000 shares of the company. Trimble operates out of Oakland, CA. Some additional info was provided as follows:
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Another insider getting out. Wake up people.
CTO of Pandora Media just cashed-in 55,000 options
Thomas Conrad, CTO of Pandora Media, recently cashed-in 55,000 options. The options were exercised at $0.16, while the sales took place at $26.64 per share, on December 16, 2013. Conrad continues to hold 529,190 shares of the company. Conrad operates out of Oakland, CA. Some additional info was provided as follows:
Shares acquired and disposed of pursuant to a previously established Rule 10b5-1 plan. The price reported in Column 4 is a weighted average price. These shares were sold in multiple transactions at prices ranging from $26.28 to $27.30, inclusive. The reporting person undertakes to provide to the issuer, any security holder of the issuer or the staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission, upon request, full information regarding the number of shares sold at each separate price within the ranges set forth in footnote (2) to this Form 4. Fully vested.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
ouch....it appears that institutions are now selling blocks at 26.50
looking very good for a close below.
lower intraday highs, tightening range, and a close below 26.49 should represent
a move down below 26.00 tomorrow.
a close above 26.50 and we'll likely more of same up and down.
once below, there may be stronger institutional selling than buying.
was thinking the same.
likely institutions will be keeping their eye on this, as stated before, if the first ones bail big time
the rest will need to move fast.
that said, a break of 26.06 would bring it down to 25.00 fast, but likely would still close
somewhere in the mid 25's.